Public sector should lead in financing energy transition, HSBC MENA chairman tells FII

Samir Assaf, chairman of HSBC Middle East and North Africa, taking part in the FII conference in Miami. (Supplied)
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Updated 31 March 2023
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Public sector should lead in financing energy transition, HSBC MENA chairman tells FII

  • Samir Assaf praised the example of PIF in taking more of the primary risk
  • NEOM deputy CEO stressed importance of energy transition projects in creating long-term sustainable capital

MIAMI: The public sector should lead the way in supporting the financial costs of the energy transition, said Samir Assaf, chairman of HSBC Middle East and North Africa.

During the FII conference in Miami, Assaf argued that public institutions around the world should follow the example of the Public Investment Fund, or PIF, the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, when it came to supporting the initial losses that could occur in making these kinds of investments.

“I think that PIF is giving us a great example through the loss of equity investment they are doing in hydrogen or in NEOM,” Assaf said.

“When you think about the reform that is happening, or will happen at the World Bank, the essence of this reform is to make sure that the World Bank is deploying more toward the energy transition and taking more of the primary risk to support (the) financing of this energy transition.

“In my view 60, 70, 75 percent of the risk of the equity should come from the public sector,” he said.

Assaf said that although banks maintained a key position in financing activities aimed at achieving net zero in 2050, “the reality is that we are all in this journey together and everyone is in this role, and I really have a call to public money to come and be the first loss of this transition.”

At the panel, speakers pointed to the urgency of accelerating the transition to green energy, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and prioritizing more resilient infrastructure in vulnerable communities.

The focus was on low and zero carbon technologies that would drive opportunities for investors, including capturing and removing carbon, carbon neutralization and scaling up solutions such as green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel.

“There’s a lot of money right now that’s positioned to go after technologies that may or may not be able to solve that problem in an adequate way,” said Steve Shallenberger, CEO of environmental technologies company, Rivotto.

“As a collective, we are at a very serious inflection point where we have to make the right decisions” to avoid “putting financial burdens and hand over an Earth that’s not suitable for future generations.”

During the panel discussion, participants also talked about the responsibility of the Global North in financing the transition toward green energy.

The general consensus among speakers was that the deployment of new technologies and the scaling up of those technologies would happen in the north, where the current competence sits, and the deployment of those technologies at scale would happen in the Global South.

The speakers added that the rollout would represent “a very interesting opportunity” for countries in the southern hemisphere to generate long-term attractive returns.

“The R&D (research and development), the proof of concept and the commercial scaling up, that is likely to happen in the North,” said Assaf.

“But the deployment of those technologies at scale is going to happen in the Global South. And that’s where the opportunity is.”

In a separate panel, NEOM’s Deputy CEO Rayan Fayez also stressed the importance of harnessing the opportunity offered by these projects to create long-term sustainable capital, while at the same time creating an impact on the rest of the world.

“It’s a balanced approach between economic development and economic returns, but at the same time creating impact that goes beyond projects like NEOM,” Fayez said. “We’re trying to redefine how businesses coexist with nature.”

“We’re addressing livability challenges and you’ve seen some designs of The Line. What we’re doing is redesigning how people could live better in the future with less infrastructure, with less footprint to occupy, with better proximity, no cars, no CO2 emissions,” he said.

“All of that coming together is creating an ecosystem where we are solving challenges that have existed all around the world but people have not had the chance of having a blank canvas in the way we do, the vision, and the way our chairman does, to recreate it and experiment with it at scale like we are in NEOM.”


UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

Updated 21 February 2026
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UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

  • Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply

RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.

Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.

The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.

In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.

The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. 

“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth. 

“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”

Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”

He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.” 

Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”   

The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.” 

He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.

“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi. 

The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.

Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties

Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.

He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “

He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.

“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.

“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.

He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.

“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.

“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.

The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.

As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.

“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.

It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.

“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.

“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”