Erdogan announces Turkiye elections will be held on May 14

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks after signing the decree announcing that national general elections will he held on May 14, at the Presidential Complex or Kulliye in Ankara on March 10, 2023. (AFP)
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Updated 10 March 2023
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Erdogan announces Turkiye elections will be held on May 14

  • The polls are considered the country’s most significant in years, as the president faces an opposition bloc that is more strongly united in challenging his two-decade rule.

ANKARA: Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Turkiye on May 14, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Friday. A second presidential vote will take place on May 28 if a runoff is required.

These elections are considered the country’s most significant in many years, as the opposition bloc is united for the first time as it challenges Erdogan’s two-decade rule.

The opposition’s presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is leader of the second-biggest party in the parliament, the center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP. He has the backing of the six parties that form the opposition alliance.

The election campaigns are expected to evolve around the country’s ongoing economic crisis and allegations of mismanagement in the response to the devastating earthquakes that hit 11 provinces last month, killing more than 46,000 people and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara office director of think tank the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said that any move to postpone the elections would be contrary to Erdogan’s strategy and it is therefore expected the elections will go ahead on May 14, regardless of rumors to the contrary.

“Firstly, the Turkish economy is a ticking time bomb and unless the current monetary policy is abandoned, a currency crisis is a matter of time,” he told Arab News. “While such a crisis can probably be avoided until May, the risk will increase over time.

“Secondly, while Erdogan has significantly raised the minimum wage and civil servants’ salaries, these raises are eroding over time. Thirdly, the recent earthquake will cause additional problems for the economy in the long run.”

Therefore, Unluhisarcikli said, time is not on the ruling government’s side and it is in Erdogan’s best interest to hold the election before these negative factors kick in.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, also known as the HDP, remains the potential kingmaker in the election, as it has not joined either of the two main alliances. It has declared its willingness to negotiate with Kilicdaroglu.

Recent research by Yoneylem, a Turkish polling firm, suggested that the chance of an opposition victory in the presidential election in the first ballot would increase if the HDP supports Kilicdaroglu.

Ilke Toygur, a professor at University Carlos III of Madrid and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, believes Erdogan’s calculations about the election are based on two main factors: Preventing the opposition from consolidating, and assuming the economy will deteriorate further.

“The voters are already deeply impacted by high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis — and things just get worse,” she told Arab News.

The election race will not be easy for the opposition, either, according to Toygur.

“They have just announced their candidate after days of existential drama,” she said. “Both the media and the state resources are used against them. There are open law cases against some, which could be instrumentalized any minute.

“It is a very unfair competition. The situation after the earthquake opens up many questions about voter registration and participation.”

 


Lebanese army sets up checkpoints to implement ban on Hezbollah military activity

Residents of the southern Lebanese village of Kfarkila gather at a Lebanese army checkpoint in Burj Al-Muluk.
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Lebanese army sets up checkpoints to implement ban on Hezbollah military activity

  • Justice Minister to Arab News: State does not belong to one group over another; we are course-correcting

BEIRUT: The Lebanese army on Tuesday set up inspection checkpoints on the highway leading from Beirut to southern Lebanon, particularly in the Zahrani area toward Nabatieh and Tyre, in implementation of the government’s recent decisions to ban Hezbollah’s military activity.

The military checkpoints focused on vehicles traveling south in an unusual development as tens of thousands of residents were simultaneously fleeing in the opposite direction toward Beirut after the Israeli army issued evacuation warnings to civilians in dozens of villages south and north of the Litani River.

At the army positions, security personnel checked identification documents, searched vehicles for weapons, and questioned drivers about the purpose of their travel to the south.

The measures mark an unprecedented scene in Lebanon over the past four decades. Since the end of the civil war, Hezbollah has retained its arsenal under the banner of “resistance,” unlike other militias that disarmed under the 1989 Taif Agreement and subsequent international resolutions.

A judicial source told Arab News that the Lebanese army checkpoints are tasked with searching for those carrying weapons and launching rockets, and arresting all armed individuals, but noted that “so far no one has been arrested.”

Minister of Justice Adel Nassar told Arab News: “The government was clear in its decisions and their implementation against those who violate the law. Hezbollah is the product of 40 years of accumulation, and today we are course-correcting.”

Nassar reflected on the government’s efforts to restrict weapons to state control during the year following the Nov. 2024 ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel.

“We waited for a response to the state, which is not for one group at the expense of another, but rather a guardian for all people. There were attempts to push toward engagement in the state project instead of engagement with external parties, and we have now reached this point,” he told Arab News.

Hezbollah had responded to the government’s decisions on Monday night by issuing a statement signed by MP Mohammad Raad, whose death in an Israeli strike at dawn on Monday had been rumored, describing them as “decisions against the Lebanese.”

Following its rejection of the decisions, Hezbollah launched more rockets at the Upper Galilee, claiming responsibility in statements issued under the banner of defending the south.

The militant group accused the government of “having been incapable of making decisions on war and peace and imposing them on the enemy that violates national peace and persists in its aggressive war against Lebanon and its people.”

Nassar reiterated that arrest warrants for those who launched rockets have entered into force and investigations are underway.

“There is more than one matter being pursued to identify those responsible,” refusing to disclose details.

On Tuesday, President Joseph Aoun told members of the Quintet Committee at the Presidential Palace that the decision to reserve for the Lebanese state alone the exclusive authority over war and peace, and to ban all military and unlawful security activity outside its authority, “is a sovereign and irreversible one.”

He added: “The Cabinet has tasked the army and security forces with implementing this decision across all Lebanese territory, stressing that the state alone has the sole right to decide on war and peace”.

An official source told Arab News that the president and prime minister remain in contact with world leaders and key stakeholders, urging an end to the Israeli war on Lebanon.

According to the Lebanese Presidency’s media office, French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his country’s “unwavering support for Lebanon”, noting that the Cabinet’s decisions reinforce the Lebanese state’s sovereignty across its territory and affirm its sole authority over weapons.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam received a call from Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit, who reaffirmed the League’s support for the government’s decisions.

On Tuesday, the Lebanese army redeployed from newly established positions along the Blue Line to its main bases in frontline villages, amid Israeli statements about creating a new buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, UNIFIL announced the withdrawal of all civilian staff from its headquarters in Naqoura. At the same time, Israeli airstrikes intensified on Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern Lebanon, targeting what Israel claimed were meetings of Hezbollah leaders.

Lebanese Forces communications and media chief Charles Jabbour called for “a clear separation between the political and field dimensions in assessing the developments of the past 48 hours in Lebanon”.

Speaking to Arab News, he said that for the first time, the Lebanese state had taken decisions that effectively dismantled Hezbollah’s military wing, “meaning there is no longer any so-called ‘resistance’ or any weapons outside the state’s authority.”

He described the move as “historic and unprecedented”, while stressing that its implementation would take time.

Jabbour pointed out that none of the political parties or forces objected to the government’s move against Hezbollah, including the group’s closest allies. “Figures the party had supported for years remained silent and said it had no right to drag Lebanon into conflict.”

He stressed that authorities must be given sufficient time, but in return, they must swiftly implement the decisions they have taken. “I believe the Iranian project and its proxies are nearing their end”.

By contrast, Mahmoud Qamati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, said the party’s military escalation against Israel stemmed from what he described as an inability to continue tolerating “the killing of our citizens, the destruction of our people’s homes, and accusations of weakness”, while the government, he claimed, continued to make “free concessions” to the enemy and pursue a policy of “strangulation”.

In a speech directed at Hezbollah’s support base in the South, he declared that “the period of patience has ended, leaving us with no choice but to return to resistance, even if that means an open war with the enemy”.

The United Nations estimated that at least 30,000 people were displaced in Lebanon over the past two days as a result of the Israeli raids, while no official figures were released by the Lebanese ministries of interior and social affairs.