Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand —Reuters Poll

Economies in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council will grow this year at half the rate of 2022. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 24 January 2023
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Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand —Reuters Poll

RIYADH: Economies in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council will grow this year at half the rate of 2022 as oil revenues take a hit from an expected mild global slowdown, according to the median view from a Reuters poll of economists.

Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, are down more than a third from last year's highs and were expected to remain under pressure this year over fears of a recession in major economies sapping demand.

Overall growth in the six GCC economies was forecast to average 3.3 percent and 2.8 percent this year and next respectively, the Jan. 9-23 poll showed, down from 4.2 percent and 3.3 percent in the previous poll.

"The outlook for 2023 is more cautious given the weaker external environment, although the GCC will likely continue to outperform many developed economies in terms of GDP growth," wrote Khatija Haque, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD.

"While oil and gas output growth is expected to slow this year, continued investment to boost production capacity in the region should see the sector contribute positively to headline GDP again in 2023."

Brent crude is expected to average $89.37 a barrel in 2023, nearly 4.6 percent lower than the $93.65 consensus in a November survey and lower than an average of $99 per barrel seen last year, a separate Reuters poll showed.

Saudi Arabia, the region's largest economy and top crude oil exporter, was forecast to grow 3.4 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2024, slightly outperforming the region as a whole. The economy expanded at a record pace of 8.8 percent in 2022.

Economic growth in the UAE was expected at 3.3 percent this year, down from 6.4 percent last year.

Among other Gulf countries — Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain — growth was expected at 2.4 percent - 2.7 percent for 2023. Kuwait was seen growing at 1.7 percent.

Despite lower oil GDP growth, non-oil growth was expected to remain resilient in 2023, economists in the survey said.

Analysts expected continued current account surpluses for the main Gulf economies, based on relatively high oil prices.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait were predicted to see double-digit growth in current account surpluses in 2023, with Oman and Bahrain in single digits.

The inflation outlook was modest, but varied, with the lowest in Oman at 1.9 percent and the highest at 3.1 percent in the UAE.


Gulf-EU value chain integration signals shift toward long-term economic partnership: GCC secretary general

Updated 03 February 2026
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Gulf-EU value chain integration signals shift toward long-term economic partnership: GCC secretary general

RIYADH: Value chains between the Gulf and Europe are poised to become deeper and more resilient as economic ties shift beyond traditional trade toward long-term industrial and investment integration, according to the secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Speaking on the sidelines of the World Governments Summit 2026 in Dubai, Jasem Al-Budaiwi said Gulf-European economic relations are shifting from simple commodity trade toward the joint development of sustainable value chains, reflecting a more strategic and lasting partnership.

His remarks were made during a dialogue session titled “The next investment and trade race,” held with Luigi Di Maio, the EU’s special representative for external affairs.

Al-Budaiwi said relations between the GCC and the EU are among the bloc’s most established partnerships, built on decades of institutional collaboration that began with the signing of the 1988 cooperation agreement.

He noted that the deal laid a solid foundation for political and economic dialogue and opened broad avenues for collaboration in trade, investment, and energy, as well as development and education.

The secretary general added that the partnership has undergone a qualitative shift in recent years, particularly following the adoption of the joint action program for the 2022–2027 period and the convening of the Gulf–European summit in Brussels.

Subsequent ministerial meetings, he said, have focused on implementing agreed outcomes, enhancing trade and investment cooperation, improving market access, and supporting supply chains and sustainable development.

According to Al-Budaiwi, merchandise trade between the two sides has reached around $197 billion, positioning the EU as one of the GCC’s most important trading partners.

He also pointed to the continued growth of European foreign direct investment into Gulf countries, which he said reflects the depth of economic interdependence and rising confidence in the Gulf business environment.

Looking ahead, Al-Budaiwi emphasized that the economic transformation across GCC states, driven by ambitious national visions, is creating broad opportunities for expanded cooperation with Europe. 

He highlighted clean energy, green hydrogen, and digital transformation, as well as artificial intelligence, smart infrastructure, and cybersecurity, as priority areas for future partnership.

He added that the success of Gulf-European cooperation should not be measured solely by trade volumes or investment flows, but by its ability to evolve into an integrated model based on trust, risk-sharing, and the joint creation of economic value, contributing to stability and growth in the global economy.

GCC–EU plans to build shared value chains look well-timed as trade policy volatility rises.

In recent weeks, Washington’s renewed push over Greenland has been tied to tariff threats against European countries, prompting the EU to keep a €93 billion ($109.7 billion) retaliation package on standby. 

At the same time, tighter US sanctions on Iran are increasing compliance risks for energy and shipping-related finance. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization and UNCTAD warn that higher tariffs and ongoing uncertainty could weaken trade and investment across both regions in 2026.