From the rise of China to the fate of crypto, Future Investment Initiative offered glimpses of a world in transition

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experts discussed cryptocurrency at the Future Investment Initiative forum in Riyadh on Oct. 27, 2022. (AN photo)
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experts discussed cryptocurrency at the Future Investment Initiative forum in Riyadh on Oct. 27, 2022. (AN photo)
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Updated 28 October 2022
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From the rise of China to the fate of crypto, Future Investment Initiative offered glimpses of a world in transition

  • Experts unpacked Africa’s green energy transition and the unifying power of football on closing day of FII
  • FII panel examined China’s precise place in the “new global order” and how the Middle East might collaborate

RIYADH: The third and final day of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum in Riyadh saw experts unpack issues running the gamut from China’s rise to superpower status and the fluctuating fortunes of cryptocurrency to Africa’s green energy transition.

One session, titled “China is back,” sought to figure out China’s precise place in the “new global order” and how the Middle East might collaborate with the Asian power to enhance its own position, and potentially provide a bridge between the East and West.

Earlier this year, the Chinese city of Shanghai went into lockdown following a new outbreak of the omicron variant of COVID-19 Since then, citizens of other major cities across the country have been ordered to stay home, bringing local economies to a standstill.




Security personnel in protective suits stand at the gate of a residential compound that is under lockdown as outbreaks of COVID-19 continue in Beijing. (REUTERS)

While other nations have sought to drive down COVID-19 infections through a mixture of mass vaccination and public awareness campaigns, China has implemented a policy of “zero COVID,” resulting in multiple highly disruptive lockdowns.

Such is the size and far-reaching influence of the modern Chinese economy and its dominant role in global supply chains, as well as manufacturing, that the impact of these lockdowns has been felt around the world.

Despite global stress in the wake of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, China’s economy has grown apace, while its soft power influence from Central Asia to Africa has continued to spread.




Half of the Africa’s population does not have access to electricity, yet there is immense potential, Marlene Ngoyi (right), CEO of the Fund for Export-Development in Africa (FEDA), told the forum. (Supplied)

Experts on Thursday’s panel agreed that Chinese expertise and success in technology, including artificial intelligence, digitization, robotics and automation, has given it a strategic presence and immense influence in the global economy.

At the same time, China is one of the world’s biggest oil importers, with more than 40 percent of its crude oil imported from the Gulf states. There are also plans to forge closer ties between China and Saudi Arabia in green technologies and digitization.

“Coming here, my first question was what can I do in this region and fulfill demand in this region,” Cathay Capital founder and Chairman Ming-Po Cai, who has many years of experience in developing China-entry strategies for multinational companies, told the panel.




Production of renewable energy is one of the main thrusts of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 program. (SPA file photo)

“Within three days, I met dozens of local actors, entrepreneurs in AI, logistics and local funds. I realized that here you have to bring the ecosystem, it’s not just one technology, one deal or one investor here or there, you have to bring the start up with the company.”

One area where many countries are investing heavily in is cryptocurrency — a form of digital currency designed to work as a medium of exchange through a computer network that is not reliant on any central authority, such as a government or bank, to uphold or maintain it.

Although cryptocurrencies have been gaining traction worldwide in recent years, offering the potential to reshape the investment landscape, several of these currencies have suffered extreme volatility, in large part owing to shocks in the real economy.




Cryptocurrencies have been gaining traction worldwide in recent years. (AFP file)

Nevertheless, recent gains in non-traditional crypto investment hubs such as Russia, Spain and France have shown that cryptocurrencies still hold huge appeal for investors.

“A lot of people like to talk about once-in-a-generational opportunities,” Hany Rashwan, co-founder and CEO of 21Shares, told another panel, titled “Building a better crypto economy.”

“If you look at history, reserve currencies in the financial system do not often change once in a generation. And so, crypto, to me, is a world-changing technology and it’s more of a once-in-a-century kind of opportunity.

“We have to really remember that it is possible to innovate outside of central banks and still abide by all the laws and regulations that are put in place, to make our daily lives more comfortable.”




21Shares co-founder and CEO Hany Rashwan speaks during the forum. (@FIIKSA illustration image)

As of September 2021, the total market value of all crypto assets surpassed $2 trillion, having largely weathered the volatile and unpredictable political, economic and technological fluctuations witnessed since it first appeared more than a decade ago.

Although the cryptocurrency space as a whole is still viewed as an unknown territory in finance, several speakers on Thursday’s panel argued that crypto should be allowed in portfolios, be traded and become properly regulated.

For Rashwan, the world may have reached a turning point whereby “it might be time to think of this as another asset class.”

Much of the instability observed in the real economy this past year has been the result of energy price fluctuations, owed in large part to the war in Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions placed on Russia — a major oil and gas supplier to Europe and beyond.




Inflation, in the form of higher prices for gas, food, and other consumer goods, has set in in many economies of the world as a result of the Russian war on Ukraine. (AFP file) 

However, higher energy prices appear to have accelerated the transition toward renewables, including wind, solar and hydrogen. Nowhere is this rapid adoption perhaps more obvious than in Africa — a continent that has been uniquely vulnerable to the global economic storm.

Experts believe that demand for renewables in Africa could increase by as much as 30 percent over the coming two decades, compared to a 10 percent increase globally. This is due to rapid population growth and industrialization.

Despite the expected increase in energy demand, Africa has 60 percent of the world’s best solar resources but only 1 percent of solar generation capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.




A Nigerian soldier guards a solar plant supplying electricity to an irrigation pumping project in the northern desert of Niger. (AFP)

“When you look at Africa today, it’s home to 1.8 billion people and we’re expected to be 2 billion by 2040,” Marlene Ngoyi, CEO of FEDA, told a panel, titled “Africa focus: Trade and energy.”

At present, half of the continent’s population does not have access to electricity, yet there is immense potential, “as Africa is a key player in energy,” said Ngoyi. “When you think about the green economy and transition to electric vehicles, cobalt is required and more than 60 percent of the mining resource is in the DRC and Zambia.”

Although Africa accounts for the smallest share of global greenhouse emissions, at just 3.8 percent, Ngoyi said many states across the continent are dependent on oil and gas. Governments need to be pragmatic in order to make the transition to alternative forms of energy, she added.




FIFA is the ‘biggest show on earth.’ (AN combo image)

From energy to sports, the diversity of topics at the sixth edition of FII did not disappoint. With the FIFA World Cup just around the corner, the forum’s final panels examined football as a tool for social progress and economic development, transcending generations, cultures and communities.

“Football is much more than a sport and FIFA is the biggest show on earth,” FIFA President Giovanni Infantino told the forum in a video address.

 

 

“This World Cup is not just the World Cup of Qatar. It’s that of the entire Middle East and the Gulf where the entire world will unite itself here. People will get to discover the Gulf, the people, the rich culture and an opportunity for Qatar and the GCC region to represent itself to the world in another light.”

 


GCC oil companies can maintain solid credit metrics in net-zero journey: S&P Global 

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GCC oil companies can maintain solid credit metrics in net-zero journey: S&P Global 

RIYADH: National oil companies in Gulf Cooperation Council countries could absorb the additional investments needed to transition toward net-zero while maintaining robust credit metrics, said S&P Global. 

In its latest report, the credit rating agency noted that NOCs in the GCC face similar energy transition risks as their global counterparts, but their strong financial positions will help mitigate these impacts. 

Rawan Oueidat, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings, said: “We expect that GCC NOCs will have sufficient financial buffers and competitive advantages to absorb the incremental investments that are necessary to catch up with global peers and that they can preserve their credit ratios over the next five years.”   

He added: “GCC NOCs’ average low-carbon investments would have to total $15 billion-$25 billion annually at least until 2026 to keep up with those of global listed peers. Even after factoring in these investments, the overall effect on NOCs’ debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) would be below 2.0x on average.”  

According to the report, these firms can fund most of their net zero projects without having to revert to external financing sources.  

S&P Global added that both banks and capital markets will play a role in funding the regional countries’ energy transition.  

“Given the size of the GCC banking systems and their capitalization, we expect they will have the capacity to cater for the funding needs of the NOCs’ low-carbon investments over the next few years if necessary,” stated the agency.  

It added: “However, we observe that NOCs, which are generally among the largest and internally-focused corporates in the GCC countries, are typically financed outside the local banking systems.”  

The report highlighted that while firms in the region benefit from strong balance sheets, they will need to carefully consider investment requirements in relation to dividend distributions. 

It further noted that the majority of NOCs in the GCC have already established net-zero targets, with Saudi Aramco aiming to achieve this by 2050 and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. targeting a goal by 2045. 

S&P Global further noted that environmental, social, and governance disclosures among oil firms in the region have increased, particularly in disclosing scope 2 emissions, but still lag behind their global counterparts. 

However, the report highlighted that most NOCs in the GCC have not yet disclosed scope 3 emissions. 

Scope 2 refers to emissions released into the atmosphere from the use of purchased energy. 

On the other hand, scope 3 encompasses indirect emissions in a company’s value chain, and it is generally considered complex and challenging to report. 


GCC logistics sector set to expand as Saudi Cabinet approves regional transport law

Updated 20 min 59 sec ago
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GCC logistics sector set to expand as Saudi Cabinet approves regional transport law

RIYADH: The logistics sector across the Gulf Cooperation Council region is set to prosper following the Saudi Cabinet’s approval of a land transport law within the region.

Chaired by King Salman, a ministerial session was held in Jeddah, during which the Cabinet reached consensus on several key proposals. Among these was the endorsement of the unified law.

The system is crafted to enhance the organizational environment, simplify procedures, and foster unity. Moreover, it aims to boost road safety, elevate service quality, protect investments, and stimulate growth in the logistics sector throughout the GCC region.


Global airline body calls for release of $720 million in held revenues by Pakistan, Bangladesh

Updated 24 April 2024
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Global airline body calls for release of $720 million in held revenues by Pakistan, Bangladesh

  • IATA asks Pakistan in a statement to simplify the ‘onerous’ repatriation process causing ‘unnecessary delays’
  • The international organization says airlines are unable to repatriate $399 million from the Pakistani market alone

KARACHI: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Wednesday asked Pakistan and Bangladesh to release airline revenues amounting to $720 million, saying the two countries were holding it in contravention of international agreements.

IATA, an international organization representing the global airline industry, asked Pakistan to simplify the “onerous” repatriation process involving audit and tax exemption certificates in a statement, pointing out such procedures caused “unnecessary delays.”

Bangladesh, it said, had a more standardized system, though aviation needed to be a higher central bank priority to facilitate access to foreign exchange.

“The situation has become severe with airlines unable to repatriate over $720 million ($399 million in Pakistan and $323 million in Bangladesh) of revenues earned in these markets,” the statement informed.

IATA’s regional vice president for Asia-Pacific Philip Goh emphasized that the timely repatriation of revenues to different countries was critical for payment of dollar denominated expenses such as lease agreements, spare parts, overflight fees and fuel.

“Delaying repatriation contravenes international obligations written into bilateral agreements and increases exchange rate risks for airlines,” he said. “Pakistan and Bangladesh must release the more than $720 million that they are blocking with immediate effect so that airlines can continue to efficiently provide the air connectivity on which both these economies rely.”

Goh maintained that his organization recognized the two governments were facing difficult challenges, making it necessary for them to determine how to utilize foreign currencies strategically.

“Airlines operate on razor-thin margins,” he continued. “They need to prioritize the markets they serve based on the confidence they have in being able to pay their expenses with revenues that are remitted in a timely and efficient fashion.”

He pointed out reduced air connectivity limited the potential for economic growth, foreign investment and exports, adding such large sums of money involved in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi markets necessitated urgent solutions.


Saudi Arabia to develop 320k new hotel rooms by 2030: Knight Frank 

Updated 24 April 2024
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Saudi Arabia to develop 320k new hotel rooms by 2030: Knight Frank 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is gearing up to expand its hospitality sector by developing 320,000 new hotel rooms by 2030, according to an analysis by global property giant Knight Frank.

The consultancy’s study disclosed that as much as 67 percent of the planned hotel room supply in the Kingdom would fall in the “upscale” or “luxury” categories, referring to 4-star and 5-star accommodations, respectively. 

This move aims to cater to the projected surge in tourism, with 150 million domestic and international tourists expected by 2030.

“With a target of welcoming 150 million visitors by 2030—a 50 percent increase from its previous goal—the government is actively exploring various strategies to attract to international travelers,” Partner and Head of Hospitality at Tourism and Leisure Advisory in Middle East and Africa Turab Saleem said.

Saleem noted that this includes the development of cultural and entertainment offerings nationwide, which complement existing attractions like the Jeddah F1 Grand Prix and numerous entertainment seasons.

“Noteworthy additions include theme parks such as Boulevard World in Riyadh, alongside the licensing of 24 additional theme parks by the Saudi General Entertainment Authority over the past year,” he added.


Oil Updates – prices climb amid US stocks decline, Middle East conflict

Updated 24 April 2024
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Oil Updates – prices climb amid US stocks decline, Middle East conflict

TOKYO: Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise drop in US crude stocks last week, a positive sign for demand, though markets were also keeping a close eye on hostilities in the Middle East, according to Reuters

Brent crude futures rose 26 cents, or 0.29 percent, to $88.68 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 26 cents, or 0.31 percent, to $83.62 a barrel at 9:34 a.m. Saudi time.

US crude inventories fell 3.237 million barrels in the week ended April 19, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. In contrast, six analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 800,000 barrels.

Traders will be watching for the official US data on oil and product stockpiles due at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time for confirmation of the big drawdown.

US business activity cooled in April to a four-month low, with S&P Global saying on Tuesday that its flash Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 this month from 52.1 in March.

“This could help convince policy makers that rate cuts are required to support the economy,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

US interest rate cuts could bolster economic growth and, in turn, demand for oil from the world’s top consumer of the fuel.

Analysts were still bullish that any latest developments in conflicts in the Middle East will still support markets, though the impact on oil supplies remains limited for now.

“Overall, crude oil prices are well supported around current levels by on-going Middle East risk premium. On the topside, risk of possible renewed OPEC production increase from Jun will help limit any significant upside,” said head of markets strategy for United Overseas Bank in Singapore Heng Koon How.

“We maintain our forecast for Brent to consolidate at USD 90/bbl by end of this year,” Heng added.

Israeli strikes intensified across Gaza on Tuesday, in some of the heaviest shelling in weeks.

“Recent reports suggest that both Iran and Israel consider the current operations concluded against one another, with no follow-up action required for now,” ING analysts said in a note.

“The US and Europe are preparing for new sanctions against Iran – although these may not have a material impact on oil supply in the immediate term,” they added.