Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies, from Lebanon to Pakistan

An investor monitors indexes on the big screen at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE), in Karachi, Pakistan, June 24, 2022. (AP)
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Updated 06 July 2022
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Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies, from Lebanon to Pakistan

  • Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package 
  • Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21 percent

BANGKOK: Sri Lanka is desperate for help with weathering its worst crisis in recent memory. Its schools are closed for lack of fuel to get kids and teachers to classrooms. Its effort to arrange a bailout from the International Monetary Fund has been hindered by the severity of its financial crisis, its prime minister says.

But it’s not the only economy that’s in serious trouble as prices of food, fuel and other staples have soared with the war in Ukraine. Alarm bells are ringing for many economies around the world, from Laos and Pakistan to Venezuela and Guinea.

Some 1.6 billion people in 94 countries face at least one dimension of the crisis in food, energy and financial systems, and about 1.2 billion of them live in “perfect-storm” countries, severely vulnerable to a cost-of-living crisis plus other longer-term strains, according to a report last month by the Global Crisis Response Group of the United Nations Secretary-General.

The exact causes for their woes vary, but all share rising risks from surging costs for food and fuel, driven higher by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which hit just as disruptions to tourism and other business activity from the coronavirus pandemic were fading. As a result, the World Bank estimates that per capita incomes in developing economies will be 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels this year.




A daily wage laborer waits for work at a wholesale market in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Sunday, June 26, 2022. (AP)

The economic strains are fueling protests in many countries, as meanwhile, short-term, higher interest borrowing to help finance pandemic relief packages has heaped more debt on countries already struggling to meet repayment obligations. More than half of the world’s poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the UN.

Some of the worst crises are in countries already devastated by corruption, civil war, coups or other calamities. They muddle along, but with an undue burden of suffering.

Here’s a look at a few of the economies that are in dire straits or at greatest risk.

PAKISTAN

Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package that was put on hold after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government was ousted in April. Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21 percent. A government minister’s appeal to cut back on tea drinking to reduce the $600 million bill for imported tea angered many Pakistanis. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, has fallen about 30 percent against the US dollar in the past year. To gain the IMF’s support, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has raised fuel prices, abolished fuel subsidies and imposed a new, 10 percent “super tax” on major industries to help repair the country’s tattered finances. As of late March, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had fallen to $13.5 billion, equivalent to just two months of imports. “Macroeconomic risks are strongly tilted to the downside,” the World Bank warned in its latest assessment.


AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan has been reeling from a dire economic crisis since the Taliban took control as the US and its NATO allies withdrew their forces last year. Foreign aid — long a mainstay — stopped practically overnight and governments piled on sanctions, halted bank transfers and paralyzed trade, refusing to recognize the Taliban government. The Biden administration froze $7 billion in Afghanistan’s foreign currency reserves held in the United States. About half the country’s 39 million people face life-threatening levels of food insecurity and most civil servants, including doctors, nurses and teachers, have been unpaid for months. A recent earthquake killed more than 1,000 people, adding to those miseries.




A man stands among piles of humanitarian food supplies in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, Feb. 16, 2022. (AP/FILE)

ARGENTINA

About four of every 10 Argentines are poor and its central bank is running perilously low on foreign reserves as its currency weakens. Inflation is forecast to exceed 70 percent this year. Millions of Argentines survive largely thanks to soup kitchens and state welfare programs, many of which are funneled through politically powerful social movements linked to the ruling party. A recent deal with the IMF to restructure $44 billion in debt faces questions over concessions that critics say will hinder a recovery.

EGYPT

Egypt’s inflation rate surged to almost 15 percent in April, causing privation especially for the nearly one-third of its 103 million people living in poverty. They were already suffering from an ambitious reform program that includes painful austerity measures like floating the national currency and slashing subsidies for fuel, water and electricity. The central bank raised interest rates to curb inflation and devalued the currency, adding to difficulties in repaying Egypt’s sizable foreign debt. Egypt’s net foreign reserves have fallen. Its neighbors Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have pledged $22 billion in deposits and direct investments as assistance.




People crowd a msjor street in Cairo, Egypt, April 14, 2020. (AP/FILE)

LAOS

Tiny, landlocked Laos was one of the fastest growing economies until the pandemic hit. Its debt levels have surged and like Sri Lanka, it is in talks with creditors on how to repay billions of dollars worth of loans. That’s an urgent issue given the country’s weak government finances. Its foreign reserves are equal to less than two months of imports, the World Bank says. A 30 percent depreciation in the Lao currency, the kip, has worsened those woes. Rising prices and job losses due to the pandemic threaten to worsen poverty.

LEBANON

Lebanon shares with Sri Lanka a toxic combination of currency collapse, shortages, punishing levels of inflation and growing hunger, snaking queues for gas and a decimated middle class. It, too, endured a long civil war, its recovery hampered by government dysfunction and terror attacks.




Residents raise their hands as they cross a street during a protest against rising prices of consumer goods and the crash of local currency in Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Nov. 29, 2021.  (AP/FILE)

Proposed taxes in late 2019 ignited longstanding anger against the ruling class and months of protests. The currency began to sink and Lebanon defaulted on paying back worth about $90 billion at the time, or 170 percent of GDP — one of the highest in the world. In June 2021, with the currency having lost nearly 90 percent of its value, the World Bank said the crisis ranked as one of the worst the world has seen in more than 150 years.

MYANMAR

The pandemic and political instability have buffeted Myanmar’s economy, especially after the army seized power in February 2021 from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. That brought Western sanctions targeting commercial holdings controlled by the army, which dominate the economy. The economy contracted by 18 percent last year and is forecast to barely grow in 2022. More than 700,000 people have fled or been forced from their homes by armed conflicts and political violence. The situation is so uncertain, a recent global economic update from the World Bank excluded forecasts for Myanmar for 2022-2024.

TURKEY

Worsening government finances and a growing trade and capital account deficit have compounded Turkey’s troubles with high and rising debt, inflation — at over 60 percent — and high unemployment. The Central Bank resorted to using foreign reserves to fend off a currency crisis, after the beleaguered lira fell to all-time lows against the US dollar euro in late 2021. Tax cuts and fuel subsidies to cushion the blow from inflation have weakened government finances. Families are struggling to buy food and other goods, while Turkey’s foreign debt is about 54 percent of its GDP, an unsustainable level given the high level of government debt.




A man buys bread in Ulus district of the capital Ankara, Turkey, Thursday, May 5, 2022. (AP/FILE)

ZIMBABWE

Inflation in Zimbabwe has surged to more than 130 percent, raising fears the country could return to the hyperinflation of 2008 that reached 500 billion percent and heaping problems on its already fragile economy. Zimbabwe struggles to generate an adequate inflow of greenbacks needed for its largely dollarized local economy, which has been battered by years of de-industrialization, corruption, low investment, low exports and high debt. Inflation has left Zimbabweans distrustful of the currency, adding to demand for US dollars. And many skip meals as they struggle to make ends meet.


Pakistan moves to digitize payments for 10 million women under flagship poverty initiative

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Pakistan moves to digitize payments for 10 million women under flagship poverty initiative

  • BISP Official says accounts will be linked to phones to boost financial inclusion and curb payment deductions
  • Over 1.9 million SIMs issued as the nationwide rollout continues across provinces ahead of the March deadline

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s flagship poverty alleviation initiative, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), plans to equip 10 million women with digital bank accounts linked to their phone numbers within four months in one of the largest such exercises in the world, one of its top officials said on Wednesday.

Launched in 2008, the initiative is named after the late former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and has a budget of Rs716 billion ($2.5 billion) during the current fiscal year. Through its Benazir Kafaalat — or financial assistance — program, BISP provides quarterly stipends of Rs13,500 ($48) to around 10 million women.

In an exclusive interview with Arab News, BISP Secretary Amir Ali Ahmed said the opening of digital bank accounts for the beneficiaries was part of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s initiative related to a cashless economy and digital transformation of the country.

“I’m glad to share that 10 million bank accounts, wallet accounts were created,” he said. “This is a follow-up of the same exercise whereby now 10 million SIMs are being distributed.

“It is significant to share that the entire beneficiary network that we have is female-centric,” he continued. “So these are 10 million female accounts that have been created.”

Ahmed said the process of issuing mobile phone SIM cards to BISP beneficiaries had started on November 17 and would be completed by March next year.

“Let me share that this is one of the largest such exercises to be conducted in the world which is female-centric, linked with financial inclusion and financial empowerment.”

The BISP official added that out of the more than 10 million beneficiaries, only five to 10 percent had bank accounts, but nearly 90 to 95 percent were excluded from the system.

He said they were being linked to the banking system with cellphone SIMs that are being distributed with the help of the IT ministry, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, National Database and Registration Authority and telecom companies across the country.

“We feel that this initiative of the government of Pakistan will not only result in financial empowerment of our beneficiaries, it will also result in financial inclusion of a segment which was not part of the banking sector in Pakistan,” he said, adding that the move will also lead to transparency.

In the past, there have been complaints of women not getting their full payment from bank officials in the absence of their own accounts, but Ahmed said this was going to change.

“They will be free from any exploitation at the agent networks, the queues that one would witness, the complaints of corruption or deductions that would emerge,” he continued.

According to official data, more than 1.9 million SIMs have so far been issued for BISP beneficiaries across the country.

The province of Punjab leads the rollout with 810,597 SIMs, followed by Sindh with 523,629 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 371,427 SIMs.

In other regions, Azad Jammu and Kashmir has received 59,617, Balochistan 82,826, Gilgit-Baltistan 45,184, and Islamabad 4,508 SIMs.