VIENNA: Major European countries and the United States are expected to seek to censure Iran as the UN atomic watchdog started meeting on Monday with talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal stalled.
The resolution drafted by the United States, Britain, France and Germany is a sign of their growing impatience as diplomats warn the window to save the landmark agreement is closing.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meets Monday through Friday in Vienna.
If the resolution urging Iran to “cooperate fully” with the IAEA is adopted, it will be the first motion censuring Iran since June 2020.
Talks to revive the accord started in April 2021 with the aim of bringing the United States back into the deal, lifting sanctions and getting Iran to scale back its stepped-up nuclear program.
The 2015 landmark deal — promising Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs in its nuclear program — started to fall apart in 2018 when the then US president Donald Trump withdrew from it.
Talks to revive the agreement have stalled in recent months.
The coordinator of the talks, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, warned in a tweet this weekend that the possibility of returning to the accord was “shrinking.”
In a report late last month, the IAEA said it still had questions that were “not clarified” regarding traces of enriched uranium previously found at three sites, which Iran had not declared as having hosted nuclear activities.
“The agency remains ready to re-engage without delay with Iran to resolve these matters,” IAEA head Rafael Grossi said in his opening statement to the board.
“I hope that as a result of the deliberations of the board this week, we will come out of this with a sense of commitment to solve these things once and for all — because as I said, this it not going to disappear,” he told reporters later Monday.
Iran will reject the resolution, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told state TV.
“Not only do we not view the resolution as constructive, but we believe it will have a negative impact both on the general direction of our cooperation with the IAEA and on our negotiations,” he said.
Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association, told AFP a resolution was “necessary to send a message that there are consequences for stonewalling the agency and failing to meet safeguards obligations.”
“There is no excuse for Iran’s continued failure to provide meaningful cooperation with the agency’s investigation,” she said.
China and Russia — who with Britain, France and Germany are parties to the Iran nuclear deal — have warned that any resolution could disrupt the negotiation process.
Despite the tensions, negotiations are unlikely to fall apart, said Clement Therme, associate researcher at the Rasanah International Institute for Iranian Studies.
“Given the war in Ukraine, the Europeans are not ready to trigger a new crisis with Iran when they are already dealing with a crisis with Russia” which invaded its neighbor in February, he said.
The resolution would be worded “in a way that does not close the door to further negotiations,” said Therme.
A key sticking point of the negotiations is Tehran’s demand for Washington to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ideological arm of Iran’s military, from the official US list of terror groups.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has refused to do so ahead of tough November midterm elections.
According to the latest IAEA report, the Islamic republic now has 43.1 kilogrammes (95 pounds) of 60-percent-enriched uranium.
If enriched to 90 percent, this could be used to make a bomb in under 10 days, Davenport warned in a report last week.
“Weaponizing would still take one to two years, but that process would be more difficult to detect and disrupt once Iran moved the weapons-grade uranium from its declared enrichment facilities,” Davenport said.
Iran has always denied wanting to develop a nuclear weapon.
Grossi told reporters on Monday that it would be “a matter of just a few weeks” before Iran could get enough material needed for a nuclear weapon if they continued to develop their program.
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Iran to face censure amid stalled nuclear talks
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Iran to face censure amid stalled nuclear talks
- The coordinator of the talks, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, warned in a tweet this weekend that the possibility of returning to the accord was ‘shrinking’
- A key sticking point of the negotiations is Tehran’s demand for Washington to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the official US list of terror groups
Civilians and aid operations bare brunt of drone strikes in Sudan’s Kordofan
- At least 77 people killed and dozens injured in various attacks in Kordofan, mostly by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces
- Residents say RSF drone strikes are taking place almost daily around the two key cities of Kadugli and Dilling
CAIRO: A surge in drone strikes in the Sudanese region of Kordofan has taken a growing toll on civilians and hampered aid operations, analysts and humanitarian workers said Wednesday, as the war in Sudan nears the three-year mark.
At least 77 people were killed and dozens injured in various attacks, mostly by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, in densely populated areas, according to Sudan Doctors Network, a group that tracks violence through the war. Many of the victims were civilians.
The conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese military erupted into a full-blown war in April 2023. So far, at least 40,000 people have been killed and 12 million displaced, according to the World Health Organization. Aid groups say the true toll could be many times higher, as the fighting in vast and remote areas impedes access.
The military increased its use of drones and airstrikes in Kordofan over the past year as the conflict shifted westward, making the region “a primary theater of operations,” said Jalale Getachew Birru, senior analyst for East Africa at the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, ACLED.
Two weeks ago, the military said it broke the RSF siege of Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan province, and the neighboring town of Dilling after more than two years.
However, Birru said the sieges were not fully broken. “These cities are still encircled, and the fight for the control of these cities and the wider region is ongoing,” he told The Associated Press.
Daily drone strikes
Walid Mohamed, a resident of Kadugli, told the AP that breaking the siege allowed more goods and medicines to enter the city, reopening the corridor with Dilling and driving down food prices after a dire humanitarian situation unfolded there. However, he said RSF drone strikes have since occurred almost daily, mainly targeting hospitals, markets and homes.
Omran Ahmed, a resident of Dilling, also said drone strikes had increased, “spreading fear and terror among residents as they see more civilians become victims.”
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk on Wednesday sounded the alarm that drone strikes killed more than 50 civilians over two days this week.
“These latest killings are yet another reminder of the devastating consequences on civilians of the escalating use of drone warfare in Sudan,” said Türk, condemning the attacks on civilian sites including markets, health facilities and schools.
UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said there was evidence that both sides had used drones against civilians in this week’s attacks.
“These civilians have been at one time or another in government-controlled areas and areas controlled by the RSF, which would make us believe that both sides are using them,” he said.
Two military officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to brief the media, told the AP this week that the army doesn’t target civilian infrastructure.
A UN convoy reached Dilling and Kadugli with aid for more than 130,000 people, the first major delivery in three months, United Nations agencies said Wednesday. However, aid workers are concerned about escalating violence.
Mathilde Vu, an advocacy manager with the Norwegian Refugee Council told the AP there’s “huge concern” about the “unacceptable” escalation in Kordofan and that it could “shatter lives and obstruct any hope to reverse the famine/ starvation” in the region.
“It’s very indiscriminate. Between Kordofan, Darfur and the east (Sennar), it’s now every other day we receive messages like ‘drone attack here, hit a civilian infrastructure, killed people,’” Vu said.
Kordofan battlefront shifts
Much of the recent fighting in Sudan has been centered in Kordofan, where the army wants to create a route into the neighboring region of Darfur, Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, a think tank, told the AP.
El-Fasher city, the capital of North Darfur, was the army’s last stronghold in the region but fell to the RSF in October. Its recapture could allow the army to restore important supply and logistic lines between Kordofan and Darfur.
Meanwhile, the RSF wants to create a route out of Kordofan, back to the center of the country and the capital, Khartoum, Khair said.
Both the military and the RSF have used drones, especially in North Kordofan. Civilians have been hard-hit.
Last year, 163 air and drone strikes across the country targeted civilians, killing 1,032 people, according to ACLED data. The army reportedly carried out 83 strikes that caused 568 deaths, while the RSF conducted 66 strikes that killed 288 people.
Both sides have stepped up their use of drones in Kordofan over the past few weeks, according to Federico Donelli, associate professor of international relations at the University of Trieste.
Donelli said several factors are driving the increase, including the army’s acquisition of new weapons and drones manufactured and supplied by foreign actors.
“This has enabled the army to rely more heavily on precision strikes, mirroring tactics that the Rapid Support Forces have been using for some time,” he said,
Both sides may be struggling to maintain troop strength, he said. “Consequently, drones are favored over deploying armed units on the ground, particularly in contested areas such as Kordofan.”
Khair, from Confluence Advisory, said the fighting in Kordofan could shift in the upcoming period, with the army potentially seeking to push into Darfur, particularly toward el-Fasher, where war crimes have been reported.
“We expect to see the bombing campaigns not only continue but increase in frequency and volume,” she said.
At least 77 people were killed and dozens injured in various attacks, mostly by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, in densely populated areas, according to Sudan Doctors Network, a group that tracks violence through the war. Many of the victims were civilians.
The conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese military erupted into a full-blown war in April 2023. So far, at least 40,000 people have been killed and 12 million displaced, according to the World Health Organization. Aid groups say the true toll could be many times higher, as the fighting in vast and remote areas impedes access.
The military increased its use of drones and airstrikes in Kordofan over the past year as the conflict shifted westward, making the region “a primary theater of operations,” said Jalale Getachew Birru, senior analyst for East Africa at the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, ACLED.
Two weeks ago, the military said it broke the RSF siege of Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan province, and the neighboring town of Dilling after more than two years.
However, Birru said the sieges were not fully broken. “These cities are still encircled, and the fight for the control of these cities and the wider region is ongoing,” he told The Associated Press.
Daily drone strikes
Walid Mohamed, a resident of Kadugli, told the AP that breaking the siege allowed more goods and medicines to enter the city, reopening the corridor with Dilling and driving down food prices after a dire humanitarian situation unfolded there. However, he said RSF drone strikes have since occurred almost daily, mainly targeting hospitals, markets and homes.
Omran Ahmed, a resident of Dilling, also said drone strikes had increased, “spreading fear and terror among residents as they see more civilians become victims.”
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk on Wednesday sounded the alarm that drone strikes killed more than 50 civilians over two days this week.
“These latest killings are yet another reminder of the devastating consequences on civilians of the escalating use of drone warfare in Sudan,” said Türk, condemning the attacks on civilian sites including markets, health facilities and schools.
UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said there was evidence that both sides had used drones against civilians in this week’s attacks.
“These civilians have been at one time or another in government-controlled areas and areas controlled by the RSF, which would make us believe that both sides are using them,” he said.
Two military officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to brief the media, told the AP this week that the army doesn’t target civilian infrastructure.
A UN convoy reached Dilling and Kadugli with aid for more than 130,000 people, the first major delivery in three months, United Nations agencies said Wednesday. However, aid workers are concerned about escalating violence.
Mathilde Vu, an advocacy manager with the Norwegian Refugee Council told the AP there’s “huge concern” about the “unacceptable” escalation in Kordofan and that it could “shatter lives and obstruct any hope to reverse the famine/ starvation” in the region.
“It’s very indiscriminate. Between Kordofan, Darfur and the east (Sennar), it’s now every other day we receive messages like ‘drone attack here, hit a civilian infrastructure, killed people,’” Vu said.
Kordofan battlefront shifts
Much of the recent fighting in Sudan has been centered in Kordofan, where the army wants to create a route into the neighboring region of Darfur, Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, a think tank, told the AP.
El-Fasher city, the capital of North Darfur, was the army’s last stronghold in the region but fell to the RSF in October. Its recapture could allow the army to restore important supply and logistic lines between Kordofan and Darfur.
Meanwhile, the RSF wants to create a route out of Kordofan, back to the center of the country and the capital, Khartoum, Khair said.
Both the military and the RSF have used drones, especially in North Kordofan. Civilians have been hard-hit.
Last year, 163 air and drone strikes across the country targeted civilians, killing 1,032 people, according to ACLED data. The army reportedly carried out 83 strikes that caused 568 deaths, while the RSF conducted 66 strikes that killed 288 people.
Both sides have stepped up their use of drones in Kordofan over the past few weeks, according to Federico Donelli, associate professor of international relations at the University of Trieste.
Donelli said several factors are driving the increase, including the army’s acquisition of new weapons and drones manufactured and supplied by foreign actors.
“This has enabled the army to rely more heavily on precision strikes, mirroring tactics that the Rapid Support Forces have been using for some time,” he said,
Both sides may be struggling to maintain troop strength, he said. “Consequently, drones are favored over deploying armed units on the ground, particularly in contested areas such as Kordofan.”
Khair, from Confluence Advisory, said the fighting in Kordofan could shift in the upcoming period, with the army potentially seeking to push into Darfur, particularly toward el-Fasher, where war crimes have been reported.
“We expect to see the bombing campaigns not only continue but increase in frequency and volume,” she said.
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