Turkey’s opposition to NATO’s Nordic enlargement fuels row ahead of June summit

NATO has repeatedly warned Turkey that the Russian S-400 missile defense system is incompatible with other NATO weapons systems, not least the F-35, a new generation multi-role stealth fighter jet. (File/AFP)
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Updated 19 May 2022
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Turkey’s opposition to NATO’s Nordic enlargement fuels row ahead of June summit

  • Ankara accuses Finland and Sweden of harboring terror groups
  • Erdogan’s personal concern is staying in power ahead of looming elections in 2023 amid a troubled economy, analyst tells Arab News

ANKARA: Turkey’s opposition to NATO’s decision to open accession talks with Finland and Sweden has sparked debate about concessions Ankara might extract to greenlight membership for the two Scandinavian countries — the biggest change in European security architecture for decades. 

Any country seeking to join NATO requires consensus approval from its 30 members, with the next NATO summit in Madrid coming in late June. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists that Ankara, a NATO member since 1952 and possessing the alliance’s second largest military, does not support membership for Finland and Sweden, accusing both countries of harboring terror groups.  

Turkey has told allies that it will say no to Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications, Erdogan said in a video posted on his Twitter account on Thursday.

“This move, which has poured cold water on expectations about Finland and Sweden’s ‘historic’ accession to the military alliance, was not really a surprise,” said Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies.

Turkey has long criticized Sweden’s policy of turning a blind eye to the presence of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party on its soil despite being classified as terrorist group by the US and EU.  

However, for Levin, what Erdogan wants in return has a number of possible interpretations. 

“Sweden’s policy against the PKK and its Syrian Kurdish YPG offshoot in northern Syria was an issue of concern not only for the ruling government in Turkey, but also for the national security establishment for a long time. In that respect, the disagreement over this critical issue has been a widely-shared sentiment,” he told Arab News. 

Finland and Sweden have imposed arms embargoes since 2019 over Turkey’s cross-border operation into Syria against Syrian Kurdish militants. Contacts between top Swedish officials and YPG leaders have been condemned by Ankara.

But, for Levin, there is always a domestic political dimension behind such decisions in Turkey. 

“Erdogan’s personal concern is staying in power ahead of the looming elections in 2023 amid a troubled economy,” he said. 

“Playing hardball with the West is likely to appeal (to a) domestic audience and consolidate stronger public support that needs nationalistic motivations.”

However, Levin is not convinced Turkey’s opposition to NATO enlargement will persuade Washington to approve Turkey’s request in October to buy 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters, and approximately 80 modernization kits for its current warplanes, which the US has so far refrained from doing.

“The presence of (the) Russian-made S-400 defense system on Turkish soil renders the acquisition of the F-35 aircraft impossible because of the interoperability problems. I’m not sure that the US Congress can approve the sale of other modernization kits as well because it can be considered as a concession against Turkey’s blackmail,” he said.  

On Wednesday, Swedish Minister for Defense Peter Hultqvist held meetings with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin in Washington, while Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his US counterpart Antony Blinken in New York. 

Cavusoglu also held recent talks with his Swedish and Finnish counterparts in Berlin. 

“Negotiations are going on to reach a diplomatic resolution,” Levin said. 

“But, I don’t expect that Sweden (will) give some kind of public concessions on human rights that could drive the ruling Social Democrats into (a) corner ahead of the parliamentary elections in September.”

Sweden currently has six sitting Kurdish members of parliament.

“Giving up the Kurdish cause by extraditing 33 people accused of terrorism charges in Turkey will not play well with the Swedish government, as the country hosts a wide Kurdish diaspora,” Levin added.  

Turkey wants the Nordic duo to stop supporting Kurdish militant groups on their soil, to refrain from having contact with PKK members, and to lift bans on arms sales to Turkey.   

For Karol Wasilewski, director of actionable analytics at Warsaw-based agency NEOŚwiat, Turkey wants to show its NATO allies that it is dead serious when it says that its security interests, particularly its sensitivity about PKK and YPG issues, should be respected. 

“For a long time, and not without reason, Turkey has had a feeling that the approach of its allies to its security interests does not correspond to the country’s contribution to the alliance’s security,” he told Arab News.

But Wasilewski thinks that the problem will be solved with negotiations between Turkey, Sweden and Finland, with the support of the US and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. 

“Perhaps Erdogan’s statement that Turkey can’t agree on membership for countries that sanction Turkey was a signal of area where the compromise could be made,” he said.

“Turkey would definitely drive a hard bargain, but I find it very difficult to imagine that this would translate to a hard veto.

“Turkey is well aware of the benefits that Finish and Swedish membership to NATO would bring, and that blocking the enlargement would result in immense pressure from the rest of (the) member countries. And Turkey simply can’t afford a strong backlash from the West.”  

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, thinks that Turkey’s main objection to the Nordic expansion of NATO is rooted in existing PKK fundraising networks in Sweden, and Sweden’s public ties with YPG officials.  

“Following closed-door conversations, Sweden could take measures to satisfy Turkey’s sensitivities,” he told Arab News. 

Stoltenberg also made it clear that Turkey’s concerns will be addressed in a way that does not delay the membership process. 

Cagaptay thinks that there are several explanations about Erdogan’s hardline rhetoric on NATO enlargement. 

“He decided to up the ante to publicly embarrass Stockholm to get concrete steps,” Cagaptay said.  

“There is also a Russian angle, where one veto inside NATO against Nordic expansion would make Russian President Vladimir Putin extremely happy.

“On the US side, Erdogan also signals that his objection to the NATO enlargement may be lifted if Biden convinces Sen. Bob Menendez in lifting his objections against Turkish defense exports,” Cagaptay added.

The US continues its active diplomacy addressing Turkey’s objections, as US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday.

“Turkey’s concerns can be addressed. Finland and Sweden are working directly with Turkey. But we’re also talking to the Turks to try to help facilitate,” he said.

According to Cagaptay, this latest crisis, besides showing Turkey to be akin to a Russian ally inside NATO, has helped Erdogan to again project his global strongman image domestically. 

“At the end of the day, he will write a narrative of the political war he has waged against Europe, and will be emerging a winner of this fight,” he said.


How a new decree could restore rights to Syria’s long-marginalized Kurds

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How a new decree could restore rights to Syria’s long-marginalized Kurds

  • Amid heightened tensions in the north, interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa has issued a decree recognizing Kurdish rights
  • Many are cautiously hopeful after generations of Hasakah Kurds were stripped of civil rights by a 1962 census

LONDON: A decree by Syria’s interim president has cast a light on a long-marginalized population in the country’s northeast, where hundreds of thousands of Kurds have for generations been denied basic civil and cultural rights.
The announcement, made on Jan. 16, came amid heightened tensions between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northern Aleppo governorate.
It also comes as interim authorities in Damascus seek to implement a reintegration deal with the SDF, which would see the central government reestablish control over Syria’s northeast and Kurdish-led forces incorporated into the national army.
Interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa said citizenship would be restored to all Kurdish Syrians, their language formally recognized, and Nowruz, the Kurdish New Year, declared a national holiday — a move suggesting renewed respect for Syria’s minorities.
The move “breaks decisively” with a legacy of “Arab nationalist exclusion that denied Kurds” in Syria their rights, Ibrahim Al-Assil, a senior research fellow at Harvard’s Middle East Initiative, told The New York Times on Jan. 16.
The Ministry of Interior began implementing the decree on Jan. 29, as government forces pushed into northeastern areas previously controlled by the SDF. But questions remain: who will truly benefit, and how does this measure differ from a similar 2011 decree issued by the now-deposed ruler Bashar Assad?
For more than six decades, many Kurds in Syria’s northeastern Hasakah province have been deprived of citizenship and basic rights following a controversial 1962 census that stripped more than 120,000 residents of nationality. The decision upended lives and erased legal identities.
That number grew over time as statelessness was passed down to descendants. According to the Hasakah civil registry, more than 517,000 people experienced statelessness between 1962 and 2011, including descendants.
Kurds today are Syria’s largest non-Arab ethnic group, numbering about 2.5 million, according to the World Population Review. Most hold Syrian citizenship, except for the descendants of those rendered stateless by the 1962 census.
Amnesty International estimated in 2005 that between 200,000 and 360,000 Kurds remained without nationality.
Their exclusion can be traced back to Aug. 23, 1962, when then-President Nazim Al-Qudsi issued Legislative Decree No. 93 ordering an “exceptional census” in Hasakah to identify what his government described as “alien infiltrators.”
At the time, officials said the aim of the census was to determine how many people had crossed into Syria following Kurdish uprisings in Turkiye in the 1920s.
However, Human Rights Watch later said the measure was part of a deliberate effort to Arabize Syria’s resource-rich northeast — home to the country’s largest concentration of non-Arabs.
Carried out in a single day on Oct. 5, 1962, the census was widely described as arbitrary and lacking legal safeguards. It even divided members of the same households into three different categories: Syrian nationals, unregistered persons and foreigners.
According to a 2009 Human Rights Watch report, census teams visited towns and villages, and registered only those physically present in their homes that day.
To retain citizenship, families were required to produce proof of residence in Syria prior to 1945, such as property deeds or ration cards. Those documents were largely inaccessible to rural residents given weak registration systems and the limited timeframe.
Those classified as foreigners — or Ajaneb in Arabic — were issued red identity cards. Others, known locally as Maktoumeen, were denied any legal recognition of their existence.
The loss of citizenship deprived generations of Kurds of fundamental rights, including access to education, employment, property ownership, marriage and child registration, and freedom of movement.
Maktoumeen could obtain only informal documents, known as Shahadat Taarif, with prior police approval through community leaders.
Locals from Hasakah’s city of Qamishli told Arab News these papers could be used to enroll children in school or register informal marriages, but were difficult to secure and offered limited protection.
The census affected even prominent figures.
According to accounts cited by Human Rights Watch in 1996, Tawfiq Nizam Eddin, a Syrian Kurd from Qamishli who once served as army chief-of-staff prior to Syria’s unity with Egypt in 1958, was stripped of his citizenship and reclassified as a foreigner.
Discrimination persisted after Al-Qudsi was overthrown in a 1963 coup that brought the Baath Party to power.
The party proposed demographic engineering in the northeast, aiming to displace Kurds from border areas with Turkiye and replace them with Arab families from Raqqa and the Aleppo countryside, according to the Syrian-Kurdish North Press Agency.
That policy took shape in 1973 under then-President Hafez Assad, Bashar Assad’s father, through the establishment of the so-called “Arab Belt,” which Human Rights Watch said displaced Kurdish communities and weakened Kurdish control of resource-rich areas.
The outbreak of Syria’s civil war in 2011 prompted limited reforms. In April that year, following demonstrations in Hasakah, Bashar Assad issued Decree 49, granting citizenship to some stateless Kurds in the northeastern governorate.
However, the measure applied only to those registered as foreigners. By mid-2013, about 104,000 Kurds in Hasakah had acquired nationality, according to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR.
Al-Sharaa’s Jan. 16 decree reportedly goes further than this, extending citizenship to remaining foreigners as well as the Maktoumeen.
The announcement has been cautiously welcomed by Kurds in Syria.
“While the decree comes decades too late, there is hope it will benefit Syria’s Kurds, particularly as recent developments in the north have raised concern,” Newroz Shivan, a Damascene Kurd, told Arab News.
“We have to wait and see what the future brings, but I’m grateful to have lived to see this decree. Our grandparents and parents never expected to witness such a moment.”
Kurds have long been determined to fight for their rights, but many doubted they would ever see them realized, she added.
For families like Shivan’s, the decree carries symbolic weight more than immediate legal impact. While her family already holds Syrian citizenship and full civil rights, they have long lacked formal recognition of their cultural identity.
“Declaring Nowruz a national holiday is a significant step and a meaningful gesture, even though it overlaps with Mother’s Day, which has been a national holiday in Syria for decades,” she said.
“Most Kurdish families have preserved the Kurdish language by teaching it to their children at home. Even without formal teaching in schools, the language has endured — living in homes and in the hearts and minds of Kurdish people.”
Still, she added, “official recognition of the language would mark a meaningful and positive shift.”
The decree, however, drew a muted response in areas under SDF control, where skepticism persists.
In a Jan. 17 statement, the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria said “the issuance of any decree, regardless of its intentions, cannot constitute a genuine guarantee of the rights of Syria’s communities unless it is part of a comprehensive constitutional framework that recognizes and safeguards the rights of everyone without exception.”
Al-Assil of Harvard’s Middle East Initiative said “mistrust runs deep, and many Kurds are cautiously welcoming this while remaining skeptical.
“Ultimately, the decree will be judged by behavior, not words,” he told The New York Times.
While Al-Sharaa’s decree has raised cautious hopes among Syria’s Kurds, its true significance will be measured not by its language, but by whether it reshapes daily life for a community long denied true belonging.