WASHINGTON: The Federal Reserve intensified its fight against the worst inflation in 40 years by raising its benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point Wednesday — its most aggressive move since 2000 — and signaling further large rate hikes to come.
The increase in the Fed’s key short-term rate raised it to a range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent, the highest point since the pandemic struck two years ago.
The Fed also announced that it will start reducing its huge $9 trillion balance sheet, made up mainly of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Reducing those holdings will have the effect of further raising loan costs throughout the economy.
With prices for food, energy and consumer goods accelerating, the Fed’s goal is to cool spending — and economic growth — by making it more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow. The central bank hopes that higher costs for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans will slow spending enough to tame inflation yet not so much as to cause a recession.
It will be a delicate balancing act. The Fed has endured widespread criticism that it was too slow to start tightening credit, and many economists are skeptical that it can avoid causing a recession.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell made clear that further large rate hikes are coming. He said that additional half-point increases in the Fed’s key rate “should be on the table in the next couple of meetings” in June and July.
But Powell also sought to downplay any speculation that the Fed might be considering a rate hike as high as three-quarters of a percentage point.
“A 75-basis-point hike is not something that the committee is actively considering,” he said — a remark that appeared to cause stock indexes to jump. Before he spoke, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen modestly. Less than an hour later, the Dow was up 700-plus points.
At his news conference, Powell stressed his belief that “restoring price stability” — that is, curbing high inflation — is essential to sustaining the economy’s health.
In their statement Wednesday, the central bank’s policymakers noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is worsening inflation pressures by raising oil and food prices. It added that “COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions,” which could further boost inflation.
Inflation, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, reached 6.6 percent last month, the highest point in four decades. Inflation has been accelerated by a combination of robust consumer spending, chronic supply bottlenecks and sharply higher gas and food prices, exacerbated by Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Starting June 1, the Fed said it would allow up to $48 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them, a pace that would reach $95 billion by September. At September’s pace, its balance sheet would shrink by about $1 trillion a year. The balance sheet more than doubled after the pandemic recession hit as the Fed bought trillions in bonds to try to hold down long-term borrowing rates.
Powell has said he wants to quickly raise the Fed’s rate to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth. Fed officials have suggested that they will reach that point, which the Fed says is about 2.4 percent, by year’s end.
Some economists warn that some of the factors fueling inflation — notably, shortages of supplies and workers — are outside the Fed’s ability to solve.
“The Fed can’t fix supply-side challenges with higher interest rates,’’ said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisers. “Fed tightening doesn’t re-open Chinese factories, increase grain shipments from Ukraine, re-position container ships to where they are needed or hire truckers to move goods.’’
The Fed’s credit tightening is already having some effect on the economy. Sales of existing homes sank 2.7 percent from February to March, reflecting a surge in mortgage rates related, in part, to the Fed’s planned rate hikes. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped 2 percentage points just since the start of the year, to 5.1 percent.
Yet by most measures, the overall economy remains healthy. This is especially true of the US job market: Hiring is strong, layoffs are few, unemployment is near a five-decade low and the number of job openings has reached a record high.
Powell has pointed to the widespread availability of jobs as evidence that the labor market is tight – “to an unhealthy level” that would tend to fuel inflation. The Fed char is betting that higher rates can reduce those openings, which would presumably slow wage increases and ease inflationary pressures, without triggering mass layoffs.
For now, with hiring robust — the economy has added at least 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months — and employers grappling with labor shortages, wages are rising at a roughly 5 percent annual pace. Those pay raises are driving steady consumer spending despite spiking prices. In March, consumers increased their spending 0.2 percent even after adjusting for inflation.
Even if the Fed’s benchmark rate were to go as high as 2.5 percent by year’s end, Powell said last month, the policymakers may still tighten credit further — to a level that would restrain growth — “if that turns out to be appropriate.”
Financial markets are pricing in a rate as high as 3.6 percent by mid-2023, which would be the highest in 15 years. Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet will add another layer of uncertainty surrounding how much the Fed’s actions may weaken the economy.
Complicating the Fed’s task is a slowdown in global growth. COVID-19 lockdowns in China are threatening to cause a recession in the world’s second-largest economy. And the European Union is facing higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
What’s more, other central banks around the world are also raising rates, a trend that could further imperil global growth. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key rate for the fourth straight time. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its rate Tuesday for the first time in 11 years.
And the European Central Bank, which is grappling with slower growth than in the United States or the United Kingdom, may raise rates in July, economists expect.
US Federal Reserve raises key rate by a half-point in bid to tame inflation
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US Federal Reserve raises key rate by a half-point in bid to tame inflation
Saudi Arabia pulls in most of Partners for Growth $450m capital push
- Global private credit fund leans into region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has captured the vast majority of Partners for Growth’s capital deployed in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the global private credit fund leans into what it sees as the region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing.
The San Francisco-based firm has deployed about $450 million in commitments in the GCC, and “the vast majority of that is in Saudi,” said Armineh Baghoomian, managing director at the firm who also serves as head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech.
The company was one of the earliest lenders to Saudi fintech unicorn Tabby, and it’s clear the Kingdom is providing fertile territory for ongoing investments.
“We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia,” Baghoomian said.
Partners for Growth, which Baghoomian described as a global private credit fund focused on “growth debt solutions,” lends to emerging tech and innovation companies, particularly those that struggle to access traditional credit.
“We’re going into our 22nd year,” she said, tracing the strategy back to its roots in a Bay Area investment bank debt practice in the mid-1980s.
Today, the firm lends globally, she said, deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years.
Shariah structures dominate PFG’s Gulf deals
In the Gulf, the firm’s structures are often shaped by local expectations. “Most of the deals we’ve done in the region are Shariah-compliant,” Baghoomian said.
“In terms of dollars we’ve deployed, they’re Shariah-structured,” she added.
“Usually it’s the entrepreneur who requires that, or requests it, and we’re happy to structure it,” Baghoomian said, adding that the firm also views Shariah structures as “a better security position in certain regions.”
Growth debt steps in where banks cannot
Baghoomian framed growth debt as a practical complement to equity for companies that have moved beyond the earliest stage but are not yet “bankable.”
She said: “The lower-cost bank type facilities don’t exist. There’s that gap.”
Baghoomian added that companies want to grow, “but they don’t want to keep selling big chunks of equity. That implies giving up control and ownership.”
For businesses with the fundamentals private credit providers look for, she said, debt can extend runway while limiting dilution.
“As long as they have predictable revenue, clear unit economics, and the right assets that can be financed, this is a nice solution to continue their path,” she added.
That role becomes more pronounced as equity becomes harder to raise at later stages, Baghoomian believes.
She pointed to a gap that “might be widening” around “series B-plus” fundraising, as later-stage investors become “more discriminating” about which deals they back.
Asset-heavy fintechs cannot scale on equity alone
For asset-heavy technology businesses, Baghoomian argued, debt is not just an option but a necessity.
She pointed to buy-now-pay-later platform Tabby as an example of a model built on funding working capital at scale.
“Tabby is an asset-heavy business,” she said. “They’re providing installment plans to consumers, but they still need to pay the merchant on day one. That’s capital-intensive. You need a lot of cash to do that.”
Equity alone, she added, would be structurally inefficient. “You would not want to just raise equity. The founders, employees, everyone would own nothing and lose a lot of control.”
We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia.
Armineh Baghoomian, PFG managing director and head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech
Baghoomian said those dynamics are common across other asset-intensive models, including lending platforms and businesses that trade in large inventories such as vehicles or property. “Those are businesses that inherently end up having to raise quite a bit of credit,” she said. Partners for Growth’s relationship with Tabby also reflects how early the firm can deploy capital when the structure is asset-backed. “We started with Tabby with $10 million after their seed round, and then we grew, and we continue to be a lender to them,” Baghoomian said.
“On the asset-backed side, we can go in quite early,” she said. “Most of the fintechs we work with are very early stage, post-seed, and then we’ll grow with them for as long as possible.”
As the market for private credit expands in the Gulf, Baghoomian emphasized discipline — both for lenders and borrowers.
For investors assessing startups seeking debt, she said the key is revenue quality and predictability, not just topline growth. “Revenue is one thing, but how predictable is it? How consistent is it? Is it growing?” she said. “This credit is not permanent capital. You have to pay it back. There’s a servicing element to it.”
Her advice to founders was more blunt: stress-test the downside before taking leverage.
“You have to do a stress test and ask: if growth slows by 30 to 40 percent, can I still service the debt? Can I still pay back what I’ve taken?” she said.
Baghoomian warned against chasing the biggest facility on offer. “Sometimes companies compete on how much a lender is providing them,” she said. “We try to teach founders: take as much as you need, but not as much as you can. You have to pay that back.”
Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business.
HIGHLIGHTS
• Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business.
• The firm lends globally deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years.
One of Partners for Growth’s differentiators, Baghoomian said, is how bespoke its financing is compared with bank products.
“These facilities are very bespoke. They’re custom to each company and how they need to use the money,” she said, adding that the fund is not offering founders a rigid menu of standardized options.
“No two deals of ours look alike,” she said, framing that flexibility as especially important at the growth stage, when business needs can shift quickly.
That customization, she added, extends beyond signing. Baghoomian said the firm aims to structure facilities so companies can actually deploy capital without being constrained, adding: “We don’t want to handcuff you. We don’t want to constrain you in any way.”
As a company evolves, she said the financing can evolve too, because what works on day one often won’t fit nine months later.
“We’ll revise structures,” she said, describing flexibility as core to how private credit can serve fast-moving tech businesses.
She added that a global lender can also bring operating support and market pattern recognition, while still accounting for local nuance.
Baghoomian expects demand for private credit in the Gulf to keep rising. “They are going to require credit, for sure,” she said, pointing to the scale of new platforms and projects.
“I don’t see it shrinking,” she said, adding that Partners for Growth is seeing more demand and is in late-stage discussions with several companies, though she declined to name them.
PFG to stay selective despite rising competition
Competition among lenders has increased since the firm began deploying in the region, Baghoomian said, calling that “very healthy for the ecosystem.”
Most of what the firm does in the region is asset-backed, Baghoomian said, often through first warehouse facilities for businesses financing receivables or other tangible exposures, “almost always Shariah.”
Keeping Egypt on its watchlist
Beyond the Gulf, Baghoomian said the firm is monitoring Egypt closely, though macroeconomic volatility has delayed deployments.
“We looked at Egypt very aggressively a few years ago, and then the macro issues changed,” she said, adding that the firm continues to speak with companies in the country and track conditions.
Even as private credit becomes more common in the region, Baghoomian underscored that debt is not universally appropriate.
“Not every company should take a loan or credit,” she said. “You don’t take it just to take it. It should be getting you to the next milestone.”
