The Russia-Ukraine conflict could have a knock-on effect in the Middle East due to the rapidly increasing prices of wheat and disrupted supply of other goods, the Daily Telegraph reported on Monday.
Analysts warn that violence could break out amid a 25 percent spike in the price of wheat, with Russia and Ukraine representing 14 percent of the global export market for the grain, and a similar percentage of the world’s corn market.
Wheat prices are up 37 percent since the start of the year, to levels not seen since 2008 and the last great global financial crisis.
BCA Research said the supply line from the Black Sea to the Middle East has become strained.
Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are also among the world’s leading fertilizer exporters. With sowing normally beginning in late February, harvests in Ukraine could be severely disrupted.
BCA said state reserves abroad could quickly become depleted, and developments “could lead to civil unrest similar to the food riots that occurred during the Arab Spring in 2011.”
Lebanon imports 40 percent of its wheat from the region, and is currently in the grip of an unprecedented series of economic, social and political crises.
Risk advisors Dragonfly warned that the country has just one month of wheat reserves, and “hardship-related protest and unrest are likely.”
War-torn Syria and Yemen are also likely to feel the knock-on effects of increasing prices and reduced supply.
Ukrainian authorities have talked up the prospect of using the country’s still largely functioning railway network to transport vital goods to other European ports for export.
