Oil jumps on OPEC+ omicron contingency plan, trimming weekly drop

Both Brent and WTI are headed for a sixth weekly decline. (Getty Images)
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Updated 09 December 2021
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Oil jumps on OPEC+ omicron contingency plan, trimming weekly drop

  • OPEC+ agrees to meet before next scheduled meeting if omicron disrupts demand
  • Group pressed ahead with planned production increase in January

LONDON: Oil rose for a second day on Friday after OPEC+ said it would meet again to review output if the omicron COVID-19 variant impacts demand.

Prices were still headed for a sixth week of declines on concern a steady increase in supply from the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia would lead to a surplus in the coming months.

Brent crude was 2.8 percent higher at $71.62 as of 11:57 a.m. Riyadh time following a 1.2 percent gain on Thursday. WTI, the US benchmark, also gained 2.8 percent, to $68.32 after adding 1.4 percent yesterday.

While the market was surprised by the OPEC+ decision on Thursday to go ahead with its plan to add 400,000 barrels a day of supply in January, the group said it would meet again before its next scheduled meeting on Jan. 4 to reconsider its plans if deemed necessary.

The decision came following weeks of calls by US President Joe Biden for more oil to ease pump prices, which had been resisted by OPEC. US officials have been in the Gulf for talks this week, the results of which have been a game-changer that goes beyond oil policy, a person familiar with the meetings told Bloomberg News, although no details of any agreement gave emerged.

“We appreciate the close coordination over the recent weeks with our partners Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other OPEC+ producers to help address price pressures,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said after the OPEC+ output decision. “Together with our recent coordinated release from the SPR, we believe this should help facilitate the global economic recovery.”

Traders are "reluctant to bet against the group eventually pausing its production increases,” analysts from ANZ Research wrote in a research note.

Still, Brent was headed for a 2.6 percent weekly decline, while WTI was set to close 1 percent lower in the week, both on a six-week losing streak.

The market has been focused on the potential impact of omicron on the global economy and oil demand if countries impose new lockdowns.

President Joe Biden has unveiled stricter Covid-19 travel rules as the US confirmed a handful of cases of the omicron variant. The UK tightened mask-wearing rules this week and advised at-risk groups not to travel, while South Korea announced on Friday that people visiting restaurants and cinemas and other public spaces will have to show vaccine passes.

The omicron coronavirus variant threatens to fuel soaring inflation in the United States by further pressuring supply chains and worsening worker shortages, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester told the Financial Times.

However, Asian stocks rose on signs the omicron variant could be less severe than the previous dominant strain, delta.

Scientists in South Africa, where the mutation was first discovered last month, said symptoms for vaccinated infected patients appeared to be mild, while a handful of US omicron cases identified also displayed moderate symptoms.

India’s health ministry said on Friday the severity of the COVID-19 disease from the omicron variant in the country could be low because of vaccination and high exposure to the Delta variant.

“Given the fast pace of vaccination in India and high exposure to delta variant as evidenced by high seropositivity, the severity of the disease is anticipated to be low,” it said in a statement. “However, scientific evidence is still evolving.”


UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

Updated 13 sec ago
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UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

  • Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply

RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.

Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.

The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.

In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.

The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. 

“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth. 

“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”

Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”

He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.” 

Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”   

The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.” 

He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.

“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi. 

The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.

Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties

Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.

He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “

He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.

“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.

“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.

He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.

“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.

“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.

The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.

As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.

“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.

It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.

“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.

“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”