LONDON: The next step in the Tunisian crisis will be crucial for the north African country, a panel of experts has predicted.
President Kais Saied suspended parliament, sacked the prime minister and cabinet, and assumed emergency powers, but analysts say it is important to know what will happen when measures are lifted. Will parliament resume its activities, will there be early elections, and what will the president’s roadmap entail?
The questions were raised during a webinar hosted by British-based think tank Chatham House on Wednesday to explore the factors that paved the way for recent events and to assess the options for Tunisia’s democratic transition.
Mass violent nationwide protests erupted in the country on July 25 and Saied introduced a state of emergency.
Aymen Bessalah, advocacy and policy analyst at independent democracy watchdog Al-Bawsala, said it was important to look at the backdrop to the crisis, which included increasing violence under parliament, the continuing police response to social protests culminating in thousands of arrests, and the handling of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
He noted that less than 10 percent of the population had been fully vaccinated and the COVID-19 death toll had passed the 20,000 mark in a nation of less than 12 million people, adding that increased poverty levels had fueled the protests.
Bessalah pointed out that Article 80 of the Tunisian constitution provided the president with discretionary powers that were not limited, but commentators and scholars agreed that suspending parliament was not included in the rules.
“The issue here is that the state of exception that is activated when invoking Article 80 has two safeguards. Firstly, is parliament being enacted in a set of permanent sessions, the second is that the Constitutional Court is yet to be put in place,” he added.
The court was meant to be established in November 2015 but has been delayed for several reasons.
Fadil Aliriza, editor in chief of Meshkal, said the COVID-19 pandemic had seriously impacted the Tunisian economy and tourism sector, due to lockdowns and curfews. Austerity measures suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had also led to increases in the price of subsidized consumer goods.
“In 2013, the debt to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in Tunisia was only about 40 percent and today it’s 90 percent, so, that’s seven years that this IMF program has been in place, and we have not seen Tunisia improved in terms of its debt. In fact, it’s got a lot worse,” he added.
So too has unemployment and the country’s trade deficit, both having a negative effect on the health sector.
Dr. Laryssa Chomiak, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, said: “It is hard to resolve if these were planned moves, or whether Tunisia found itself in the perfect storm type of situation.” As a result, she noted, the constitutionality of the current events was entirely open to interpretation.
“The pandemic has exacerbated long-standing socioeconomic pressures, such as currency devaluation, the Tunisian dinar devaluated by 64 percent since 2011, high unemployment, stagnating salaries, and rising cost of living, which has dramatically affected the price of basic foodstuffs, gasoline, and utilities.”
She added that democracy was not limited to elections, and that the current conditions have had critical effects on trust and belief in democratic institutions.
Chomiak pointed out that an Arab Barometer report in April had revealed that 55 percent of Tunisians believed that democracy was always the preferable form of governance. But when asked what the characteristics of democracy were, 74 percent of Tunisians identified basic necessities such as food, clothes, and the provision of shelter for all. “In this view, democracy is more about equality and support for fair distribution.”
Public opinion poll findings have registered a steadily diminishing trust in parliament and political parties, but also due to insufficient public funding and virulent attacks by competing political forces that are increasingly turning violent, she said.
Daniel Brumberg, director of democracy and governance studies at Georgetown University, said Tunisia was the only country in the Arab world, in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, to have political science and negotiated pact and agreement between leaders.
But the economic policies that were pursued incorporated actors from the previous regime and prevented any major effort to reform the economy, and the international community decided not to press for a reform of the security sector, he added.
He said the role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt was important during the transition process, while the Europeans were calling for Tunisia to get its democracy back on track. Then there was the US.
Brumberg noted that Washington would like to play a bigger role in Tunisia and President Joe Biden’s administration had made democracy a major foreign policy as part of its agenda, different from the previous administration.
“There’s a genuine concern, not simply about democracy, but human rights,” he added. He pointed out that the Tunisian political apparatus had been dysfunctional in the power-sharing formula. “It’s ultimately up to Tunisians themselves to work this out,” Brumberg said.