ISTANBUL: Turkey’s lira tumbled to a record low of 8.6 versus the dollar on Friday as it took a hit from global inflation concerns, expectations that the central bank will soon cut interest rates and worries over possible early elections.
The lira — by far the weakest performer in emerging markets this year — slipped beyond its November intraday low of 8.58, marking the latest step in a years-long depreciation that has dogged the Middle East’s top economy.
It recouped some losses and was at 8.575 against the US currency at 10:52 GMT, ahead of a review by S&P Global that could downgrade its Turkey credit rating. It also logged a new nadir of 10.4696 against the euro.
Despite Turkish inflation having risen above 17 percent in April, the central bank says that should fall and it is expected to lower the policy interest rate from 19 percent in coming months.
But as the world emerges from the pandemic, global inflation has risen and lifted US bond yields. That in turn pulls funds from emerging markets such as Turkey, hitting the lira and putting more upward pressure on domestic prices due to its heavy imports.
“Earlier than expected (monetary) tightening in advanced economies is the most serious risk for Turkey because the inflationary pressures are mounting across the globe,” said Hakan Kara, former chief economist at the central bank who is now at Bilkent University.
“If there was an early tapering (of US Federal Reserve asset purchases) that would not be good news for emerging economies, especially those facing external fragilities,” he said on a World Bank panel on Thursday.
The lira has tumbled 16 percent since mid-March when President Tayyip Erdogan abruptly fired a hawkish and market-friendly central bank chief and replaced him with Sahap Kavcioglu, who had criticized recent rate hikes.
Bankers say a four-day currency slide in part reflects calls for early elections from opposition parties in the face of uncorroborated allegations against government officials from a mafia boss.
The series of accusations this month by Sedat Peker, whose YouTube videos have been watched by millions, have forced Erdogan to defend his interior minister and insist that elections will not happen until 2023 as scheduled.
The lira has shed more than half its value in the last three years as Erdogan has ousted three central bank governors and his government has used unorthodox polices that analysts say have left the economy more vulnerable to crises.
Foreign currency reserves plunged in the last two years as state banks sold about $128 billion in dollars to stabilize the lira, leaving Turkey potentially vulnerable if companies and banks have trouble meeting high foreign debt obligations.
Even as the economy is expected to return to form with more than 5 percent growth this year, the tourism sector faces another lost season and paltry revenues, which inflates an already large current account deficit.
In a statement on Friday, Kavcioglu said the current account should continue to improve and the central bank would act decisively to lower inflation.
Later on Friday, S&P is set to review Turkey’s B+ rating. Credit debt swap markets, sometimes a leading indicator of moves, currently price Turkey two notches below S&P’s current rating in line with B- rated countries.
Naci Agbal, who preceded Kavcioglu at the central bank, served less than five months as governor and was appointed a day after the lira logged its last record low in November.
Agbal’s aggressive rate hikes temporarily attracted foreign investors and lifted the currency.
But Tatha Ghose, analyst at Commerzbank, said Erdogan’s public opposition to high rates and his rapid leadership shuffles have hurt the central bank’s credibility and led to a “familiar lira spiral.”
“Each burst of depreciation risks triggering a fresh lira crisis as it begins to feed back into higher inflation, which the central bank cannot fight off because it is unable to credibly hike rates,” he said in a client note.
Turkish lira hits record low as world inflation looms
https://arab.news/rwurs
Turkish lira hits record low as world inflation looms
- The lira has shed more than half its value in the last three years
- Currency is weakest performer in emerging markets this year
More than two-thirds of UAE retail investors hold stocks in AI companies: eToro survey
RIYADH: More than 70 percent of retail investors in the UAE have stocks of companies developing artificial intelligence, according to a survey by trading platform eToro.
The 71 percent mark underscores a widespread understanding of AI’s potential as a catalyst for innovation and a source of competitive edge.
UAE retail investors’ interest in AI goes beyond holding stocks. When asked about their use or plans to use AI tools like ChatGPT to guide investment decisions, 39 percent reported that they already employ these technologies.
Global Markets Strategist at eToro, Ben Laidler, said: “Microsoft’s recent $1.5 billion investment in Abu Dhabi’s G42 is a big endorsement of the UAE’s potential as a global AI hub, which is reflected in the survey results showing widespread AI adoption by local investors and consumers.”
Millennials lead the charge when it comes to generational users, with 40 percent of those aged 25-44 using AI tools.
Baby Boomers and Gen X investors follow closely, with 39 percent and 38 percent, respectively.
Underlining the critical role that artificial intelligence might play in future investment strategies, an additional 52 percent of respondents, beyond those already using AI tools, said they are willing to adopt the technology to guide or adjust their portfolios in the future.
This trend defies generational stereotypes, with the older cohorts of investors directing the charge.
Baby Boomers lead in interest in integrating AI into investment planning, with 60 percent showing enthusiasm, followed by Gen X at 58 percent.
Laidler said: “AI stocks were the performance juggernauts of 2023, leading the tech sector revival and propelling the S&P 500 into bull market territory. AI trends helped make NVIDIA and Meta the best S&P 500 stock performers of last year, with their share prices tripling.”
He added: “Whilst we’re unlikely to see a repeat performance in 2024, the benefits of AI’s rapid adoption are broadening across the stock market and economy as it rapidly moves from hype to reality.”
Furthermore, eToro analyzed which companies experienced the highest proportional increase in UAE-based investors on its platform from quarter to quarter, revealing that AI stocks were the most popular theme during the first three months of the year.
Omani officials forge economic alliances with Saudi Arabia, Japan, and US
RIYADH: Oman’s industrial infrastructure is set to receive a boost following a new agreement with Saudi Arabia, fostering private sector participation in the country’s economic growth.
A memorandum of understanding, aimed at financing the infrastructure of several industrial zones in Oman, was signed during a meeting between Minister of Finance Sultan bin Salem Al-Habsi and Sultan Abdulrahman Al-Marshad, CEO of the Saudi Fund for Development, the Oman News Agency reported.
Discussions centered on cooperation mechanisms between Oman and the fund, along with updates on collaborative development projects.
The aim is to develop the industrial and logistical sectors by providing all necessary basic services, thereby encouraging the private sector to contribute to Oman’s economic development in line with Oman Vision 2040, as reported by the agency.
This memorandum falls within the framework of cooperation between the two parties to support developmental areas in Oman. These encompass infrastructure, higher and vocational education programs, and water, along with the industry and mining sectors. Additionally, it includes transportation and communications sectors, as well as developmental projects in the energy sector.
On another note, Ali bin Masoud Al-Sunaidi, chairman of the Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones, met with Ken Saito, minister of economy, trade and industry of Japan, and his accompanying delegation in Tokyo.
During the meeting, they reviewed the business cooperation between the two countries and the major projects under construction in the economic and free zones and industrial cities in Oman, notably the low-carbon iron production project in the Special Economic Zone in Duqm.
The visit also included meetings with officials from companies engaged in iron and its derivatives production, and renewable energy equipment manufacturing companies, as well as a visit to Yokohama Port to learn about its experience in receiving ships specialized in energy and petroleum product transportation.
Also on April 24, Oman and the US explored ways to enhance trade, investment, and address challenges comprehensively during the second strategic dialogue held in Washington.
The Omani side was chaired by Sheikh Khalifa bin Ali bin Issa al-Harthy, undersecretary for Diplomatic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while the US side was chaired by Jose Fernandez, undersecretary of state for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment.
Both sides discussed opportunities for American companies in Oman, focusing on ICT, semiconductors, and clean energy services, expressing commitment to enhancing cooperation in clean energy solutions and mineral investments.
They addressed environmental priorities under the Omani-American cooperation memorandum, fostering communication between researchers from both countries for clean energy research.
Saudi NHC, Spain’s Urbas to construct almost 600 housing units in Al-Fursan suburb
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Al-Fursan suburb will soon be home to 589 new residential units worth around SR1 billion ($266 million) thanks to a deal sealed by the National Housing Co.
Inked with Urbas Middle East Real Estate Co., a subsidiary of the Spanish Urbas Group, the agreement involves the development as well as construction of the housing units on an area spanning 150,000 sq. m, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
This collaboration marks a significant milestone in the development of the Al-Fursan suburb. It also promises to set new standards in property development.
“This agreement complements the efforts of the recent visit to Spain and continues to attract international investments with major companies to provide various housing products that fulfill and meet the desires of citizens,” Saudi Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Majid Al-Hogail said in a post on X.
“As an extension of our journey in attracting the best international experiences and expertise in the real estate development industry, I was pleased to meet the CEO of the Spanish company Urbas, which is planned to be one of the companies developing the Al-Fursan neighborhood project in Riyadh,” Al-Hogail added.
The minister also highlighted how this step will contribute to providing innovative housing options and facilitate the exchange of experiences between Saudi and international developers.
IMF surcharges on borrowings exacerbate global inequities: report
BENGALURU: Countries, mostly middle and lower-income, have been burdened by surcharges on top of interest payments on their borrowings from the International Monetary Fund, widening global inequities, according to a report by US think tanks.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
Indebted member countries paid about $6.4 billion in surcharges between 2020-2023, the report from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center and Columbia University’s Initiative for Policy Dialogue released on Tuesday showed.
And the number of countries paying these surcharges has more than doubled in the last four years.
The IMF is expected to charge an estimated $9.8 billion in surcharges in the next five years, according to an earlier report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Critics of the policy argue that surcharges do not hasten repayment and instead punish countries already struggling with liquidity constraints, increase the risk of debt distress and divert scarce resources that could be used to boost the struggling economies.
BY THE NUMBERS
Countries such as Ukraine, Egypt, Argentina, Barbados and Pakistan pay the most in surcharges, the report showed, accounting for 90 percent of the IMF’s surcharge revenues.
These surcharges, levied on top of the fund’s increasingly steeper basic rate, are IMF’s single largest source of revenue, accounting for 50 percent of total revenue in 2023.
KEY QUOTES
“IMF surcharges are inherently pro-cyclical as they increase debt service payments when a borrowing country is most need of emergency financing," Global Development Policy Center’s Director Kevin Gallagher said.
“Increasing surcharges and global shocks are compounding the economic pressure on vulnerable countries.”
CONTEXT
Data published by the Institute of International Finance earlier this year showed global debt levels hit a record of $313 trillion in 2023, while the debt-to-GDP ratio — a reading indicating a country’s ability to pay back debts — across emerging economies also scaled fresh peaks.
IMF shareholders agreed last week on the importance of addressing challenges faced by low-income countries, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.
China’s wealth fund joins with Bahrain’s Investcorp for $1bn Middle East investment
RIYADH: China’s growing interest in the Middle East continues as the country’s sovereign wealth fund partnered with Bahrain’s Investcorp to establish a $1 billion investment pot.
According to a press statement, Investcorp Golden Horizon fund will assist companies across Saudi Arabia, the wider Gulf Cooperation Council region and China.
The reserve will be anchored by reputable institutional and private investors from the GCC, as well as China Investment Corp.
The press statement revealed that target companies are expected to have high growth potential in sectors including consumer, health care, logistics and business services.
“During the past couple of years, we have built several bilateral funds with leading financial institutions to facilitate industrial cooperation between China and major economies in the world,” said Bin Qi, executive vice president and chief information officer at CIC.
He added: “Currently, we are working closely with Investcorp to build a similar bilateral fund to strengthen financial and industrial ties between China and GCC countries.”
This commitment from CIC comes when the GCC’s appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace, thanks to its stable regulatory environment and pro-business policies, driven by economic diversification efforts in the region and strategic privatization mandates.
“This commitment by CIC, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, is a testament to Investcorp’s unparalleled franchise in the GCC and reinforces the trust placed in the firm’s global platform and teams. We are looking forward to building on this relationship and growing our partnership in the future,” said Mohammed Al-Ardhi, executive chairman of Investcorp.
Co-CEO of Investcorp Hazem Ben-Gacem said the launch of the new fund will facilitate cross-border cooperation and investments between the GCC and China.
Trade and economic relationships between the Middle East and China have always been strong.
In 2023, China’s exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE amounted to $42.86 billion and $55.68 billion respectively.
On the other hand, the Asian giant’s imports from Saudi Arabia totaled $64.36 billion in 2023.
In November, Saudi Arabia’s central bank, also known as SAMA, and the People’s Bank of China signed a local currency swap agreement worth $6.93 billion.
SAMA, in a statement, said that the three-year agreement “has been established in the context of financial cooperation between the Saudi Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China.”
The Asian country’s central bank said that the agreement will help strengthen financial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China, promote the use of local currencies, and strengthen trade and investments between nations.
