Strong growth forecast for Saudi economy

According to researchers, economic diversification would make the Kingdom’s economy more resilient to external demand shocks and help to create higher-skilled jobs. (File)
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Updated 25 April 2021

Strong growth forecast for Saudi economy

  • Contribution of all sectors to GDP to significantly increase by 2030

RIYADH: Economists forecast that the Saudi economy will grow significantly bigger over the coming decade with the size of every sector expected to increase.

The Kingdom’s finance, insurance, real estate and business sectors are likely to expand by 9 percent annually and their relative share to overall economic activity will grow by 12.7 percent.

A paper titled “Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030: Sectoral Changes Aiming at Sustainable Growth,” published by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), discussed the macroeconomic and structural transformation of the Saudi economy under the Vision 2030 program.

KASPARC’s researchers in the energy and macroeconomic programs, David Havrlant and Abdulelah Darandary, explained that economic diversification would make the Kingdom’s economy more resilient to external demand shocks, help to create higher-skilled jobs, and establish a knowledge-based economy.

Havrlant said that the research findings showed that the relative share of the Kingdom’s wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotel sectors to the gross domestic product (GDP) was expected to reach 16 percent by 2030, followed by transport, storage and communication.

HIGHLIGHTS

● The Kingdom’s finance, insurance, real estate and business sectors are likely to expand by 9 percent annually.

● The relative share of the wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotel sectors to GDP was expected to reach 16 percent by 2030.

● The services sector is expected to grow about 10 percent annually on average.

“The continued growth in the basic oil and gas sector is expected to become somewhat milder than the rapid expansion of the diversification focal sectors,” he said.

Meanwhile, the services sector is expected to grow about 10 percent annually on average, implying that its relative GDP share will climb to almost 40 percent in 2030.

Darandary said that the manufacturing and services sectors would become one of the strongest pillars of sustainable economic growth and lead the diversification process.

“The main thing that changes is the way the economy is segmented, letting the initially tiny sectors increase their share in comparison with the larger ones. The relative sizes of the economic sectors will be more evenly distributed, yielding a more diversified economy,” he said.

The researchers said that as the economy transformed into a more advanced and diversified one, the private sector was set to take the lead, being the carrier of high-level knowledge and skills, innovative capabilities, and research and development.

Household income and private consumption are expected to benefit from these adjustments, with private consumption likely to account for more than 40 percent of overall expenditure in 2030, they said.


Sterling set for worst week since Sept. 2020

Updated 19 June 2021

Sterling set for worst week since Sept. 2020

LONDON: Sterling extended its fall against the US dollar on Friday, dropping below $1.39, hurt by the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish surprise and an unexpected fall in Britain’s retail sales.
The pound dropped against a strengthening dollar on Thursday after the Fed surprised markets by signaling it would raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected.
On Friday, it fell further against both the dollar and the euro. It was down 0.3 percent on the day at $1.389, having touched as low as $1.38555 — its weakest since May 4. It was on track for its worst week since September 2020.
Versus the euro, it was down around 0.3 percent at 85.78 pence per euro, on track for a small weekly fall.
“GBPUSD remains bogged down below the 1.39 handle by a confluence of broad USD strength and a slight deterioration in near-term data,” said Simon Harvey, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe.
“The limited impact of the data on sterling is largely because retail sales volumes remain above pre-pandemic levels and a shift in consumption patterns toward services after the May 17th reopening was always likely.”
For cable, market participants are weighing up the Bank of England and the Fed’s relative pace of possible monetary policy tightening. The BoE next meets on June 24.
BofA strategists said in a note to clients that it changed its view on the central bank’s tightening trajectory.
and now expects a 15 basis point rate hike in May 2022, compared to previously expecting no hikes in 2022.
“Brussels’ patience with London’s having its cake and eating it is wearing thin. Indeed, there is a risk of protocols being triggered and tariffs being threatened more seriously,” wrote ING strategists in a note to clients.
“The next few weeks could thus be a vulnerable period for Cable, where a break of 1.3890 opens up 1.3800/3810 — the last stop before an extension to the March/April lows of 1.3675.”


Bahrain’s Batelco could be first stock to be dual listed on Tadawul

Updated 18 June 2021

Bahrain’s Batelco could be first stock to be dual listed on Tadawul

  • Samba has been hired as an adviser on the deal

RIYADH: Bahrain Telecommunications Co. (Batelco) is planning to become the first company to have a dual listing of shares on Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange (Tadawul), Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter.

The investment arm of Samba Financial Group has been hired as an adviser on the deal, the people said, asking not to be identified for information privacy.

No decision has been made and the company may decide against the dual listing, they said.

A spokesperson at Batelco declined to comment, while Samba Capital didn’t respond to messages seeking comment, Bloomberg said.

Tadawul has been trying to encourage Middle Eastern firms to dual list for years, without success. Aluminium Bahrain had considered a dual listing in 2014, but it never occurred.


Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center wins global awards for second year

Updated 18 June 2021

Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center wins global awards for second year

  • Saudi office won Middle East and emerging market awards

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia won the Best Sovereign Public Debt Office in the Middle East and the Most Impressive Emerging Market Issuer Award at the 2021 Global Capital Bond Awards, for the year 2021, for the second year in a row, SPA reported.

The Global Capital Bond Awards honors the achievements of governments and companies of all sizes in the field of sovereign and regional finance, banking services, hedge funds, and many other areas within the financial services sector.

It also highlights the most prominent innovations and achievements within the financial services sector, globally.

Saudi Arabia sold SR8.27 billion ($2.20 billion) of riyal-denominated sukuk in June, up from $941 million in May, bunt down from $3.1 billion April, National Debt Management Center data show.

“Driving growth of the Kingdom’s capital markets will be an increase in bond issuance to help fund the SR12 trillion Vision 2030," said Khalid Al-Bihlal, head of S&P Global Ratings KSA. "We project a gradual rise in the use of Saudi Arabian riyal-denominated bond issuance as the local capital markets develop. The US dollar is currently the currency of choice for such bonds."


Saudi MoF electronically linked to SAMA

Updated 18 June 2021

Saudi MoF electronically linked to SAMA

RIYADH: The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) announced the completion of an electronic link with the Ministry of Finance to process requests relating to the bank accounts of government agencies held at Saudi commercial banks through the online portal Hesaab.

SAMA is seeking to improve and accelerate the procedures related to requests of government agencies’ bank accounts received from the Ministry of Finance, by implementing technical solutions with minimal human intervention, it said in a statement on Thursday.

The Hesaab portal is one of the National Transformation Program 2020 initiatives that improves the level of financial services, in line with Vision 2030.


Oil falls amid dollar strength; demand picture still bullish

Updated 18 June 2021

Oil falls amid dollar strength; demand picture still bullish

  • Prices remain close to multi-year highs
  • Dollar jumped since Fed moved rate-hike forecast forward

LONDON: Oil prices fell for a second straight session on Friday as the US dollar soared on the prospect of interest rate hikes in the United States, but they were on track to finish the week little changed and only slightly off multi-year highs.
Brent crude futures were down 64 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $72.44 a barrel as of 9:00 a.m. GMT, extending a 1.8 percent decline on Thursday. The contract is set to be largely steady for the week.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $70.51 a barrel, after retreating 1.5 percent on Thursday and is also set to be flat on the week.
On Wednesday, Brent settled at its highest price since April 2019 while WTI settled at its highest since October 2018.
“Oil markets retreated sharply overnight as a stronger US dollar and falling commodity prices elsewhere saw the overbought technical correction continue,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
The dollar has rocketed in the two sessions since the US Federal Reserve projected possible rate hikes in 2023, earlier than market watchers previously expected. A rising dollar makes oil more expensive in other currencies, curbing demand.
The prospect of rate hikes also weighed on the longer-term growth outlook, which would eventually hurt oil demand, in contrast to the near-term outlook for growth in demand as COVID-19 related curbs on movement and business activity ease and road and air travel pick up, said Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk.
“The near term’s all very positive. The question is how much further can it rise, how much scope is there if you’re looking at an environment where interest rates are going to rise,” Smirk said.
Oil prices also fell after Britain on Thursday reported its biggest daily rise in new cases of COVID-19 since Feb. 19, with government figures showing 11,007 new infections versus 9,055 a day earlier.
Adding to negative sentiment were remarks from Iran’s top negotiator on Thursday saying talks between Tehran and Washington on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have come closer than ever to an agreement.