Japan is likely to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 through mass inoculations only months after the planned Tokyo Olympics, even though it has locked in the biggest quantity of vaccines in Asia, according to a London-based forecaster.
That would be a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who has pledged to have enough shots for the populace by the middle of 2021, as it trails most major economies in starting COVID-19 inoculations.
“Japan looks to be quite late in the game,” Rasmus Bech Hansen, the founder of British research firm Airfinity, told Reuters. “They’re dependent on importing many (vaccines) from the US And at the moment, it doesn’t seem very likely they will get very large quantities of for instance, the Pfizer vaccine.”
Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games.
Japan has arranged to buy 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc, and that would be more than enough for its population of 126 million.
But problems seen in vaccine rollouts elsewhere stir doubt that Japan will get those supplies on time.
Taro Kono, Japan’s vaccine program chief, said last week it would begin its first shots in February, starting with 10,000 medical workers, but he walked back on a goal to secure enough vaccine supplies by June.
Japan is particularly vulnerable because its initial inoculation plan is dependent on Pfizer doses, which are at risk of being taken back by US authorities to fight the pandemic there.
“There simply aren’t enough vaccines for all the countries that Pfizer made agreements with,” Hansen said.
“America needs 100 million more Pfizer vaccines to be on the safe side to reach their goals, and a lot of those 100 million would come from the Japan pile.”
Representatives from Pfizer and Japan’s health ministry did not immediately respond to Airfinity’s forecasts. Previously, Pfizer has stated that the company was working with Japanese regulators “to make COVID 19 vaccine doses available as quickly as possible to the people in Japan.”
Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in October, months after Olympics: researcher
Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in October, months after Olympics: researcher
UN chief Guterres warns ‘powerful forces’ undermining global ties
- Guterres paid tribute to Britain for its decisive role in the creation of the United Nations
- He said 2025 had been a “profoundly challenging year for international cooperation and the values of the UN“
LONDON: UN chief Antonio Guterres Saturday deplored a host of “powerful forces lining up to undermine global cooperation” in a London speech marking the 80th anniversary of the first UN General Assembly.
Guterres, whose term as secretary-general ends on December 31 this year, delivered the warning at the Methodist Central Hall in London, where representatives from 51 countries met on January 10, 1946, for the General Assembly’s first session.
They met in London because the UN headquarters in New York had not yet been built.
Guterres paid tribute to Britain for its decisive role in the creation of the United Nations and for continuing to champion it.
But he said 2025 had been a “profoundly challenging year for international cooperation and the values of the UN.”
“We see powerful forces lining up to undermine global cooperation,” he said, adding: “Despite these rough seas, we sail ahead.”
Guterres cited a new treaty on marine biological diversity as an example of continued progress.
The treaty establishes the first legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of marine diversity in the two-thirds of oceans beyond national limits.
“These quiet victories of international cooperation — the wars prevented, the famine averted, the vital treaties secured — do not always make the headlines,” he said.
“Yet they are real. And they matter.”
