WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil price trends suggest OPEC+ output cuts having desired effect

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Updated 12 July 2020
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WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil price trends suggest OPEC+ output cuts having desired effect

  • Brent crude oil nudged higher to end the week at $43.24 per barrel

Brent crude oil nudged higher to end the week at $43.24 per barrel as WTI also gained to $40.55. 

Oil prices have been moving in an extremely narrow band over the last two months of just $3-$4 and this week that band was squeezed further from dollars to cents.

Accordingly, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its price outlook for Brent crude to $41 per barrel for the second half of 2020, which is $4 per barrel higher than last month.

More importantly, the latest oil price trends confirm that historical output cuts made by OPEC+ are working to re-balance the market in the wake of the largest oil demand shock in history.

OPEC slashed its crude output in June to a three-decade low when it produced 22.31 million bpd, the organization’s lowest collective output since September 1990. 

These cuts appear to have achieved high compliance rates and have been largely responsible for keeping the market intact. 

But while consumers have benefited from market stability recently, the same cannot be said for speculators who love volatility.

Instead the hedge fund heads have been turned by airlines, cruise companies, banks and other sectors hard hit by the pandemic.

This won’t support upward movement in oil prices as sentiment remains bearish.

In the physical market, sour crude grades with high sulfur content are trading at prices getting closer to sweet barrels with low sulfur content. Crude grades with high sulfur content are showing signs of under-supply, with record premiums to Brent.

Coronavirus disease cases continue to rise in the US, a major threat to oil markets. 

Brent’s premium against Dubai has narrowed sharply this year and even flipped to a discount against Arabian Gulf crude grades for the first time in March.

At the same time, US shale prices linked to WTI remains relatively expensive.


Saudi Maaden reports 156% profit surge to $2bn on strong commodity prices, record production

Updated 05 March 2026
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Saudi Maaden reports 156% profit surge to $2bn on strong commodity prices, record production

RIYADH: Saudi mining and metals company Maaden has reported a 156 percent jump in its net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, driven by higher commodity prices, record production volumes, and a one-off bargain purchase gain.

The state-backed giant posted a net profit of SR7.35 billion ($1.95 billion) for the full year 2025, an increase from SR2.87 billion in the previous year. The firm’s revenue surged by 19 percent to SR38.58 billion, up from SR32.55 billion in 2024.

This comes as Saudi Arabia steps up efforts to expand its mining sector as a pillar of economic diversification, encouraging international participation and private investment to unlock the Kingdom’s estimated $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral resources under Vision 2030.    

In a statement on Tadawul, the company said: “Performance was led by record phosphate production, near record aluminum production, an increase in all three of Maaden’s main output commodity prices.”

The performance was also fueled by a 60 percent increase in gross profit, which reached SR14.79 billion. In its annual results announcement, Maaden attributed the top-line growth to “higher commodity market prices for phosphate, aluminum and gold business units,” as well as increased sales volumes in its phosphate and aluminum segments. This was partially offset by slightly lower sales volume in the gold unit.

Maaden’s CEO, Bob Wilt, hailed 2025 as a transformative year for the company, marked by strategic growth and operational excellence. “This was a great year for Maaden’s strategic growth. We delivered strong financial results and sustained operational excellence across the business,” he said in a statement.

“This was driven by growth in production across all businesses, including record-breaking DAP (di-ammonium phosphatevolumes), disciplined cost control across and a clear commitment to our role as a cornerstone of the Saudi economy,” Wilt added.

Profitability was further bolstered by an increased share of net profit from joint ventures and an associate. This included a one-off bargain purchase gain of SR768 million related to Maaden’s investment in Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. The company also benefited from lower finance costs.

The fourth quarter of 2025 was strong, with Maaden swinging to a net profit of SR1.67 billion, compared to a loss of SR106 million in the same period of the prior year. Quarterly revenue rose 7 percent to SR10.64 billion.

The firm achieved record production of di-ammonium phosphate, reaching 6.72 million tonnes for the year, a 9 percent increase. Aluminum production remained near-record levels, while the company added a net 7.8 million ounces to its reportable gold mineral resources through discovery and resource development.

The phosphate division saw sales jump 17 percent to SR20.77 billion, with the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin expanding to 47 percent. The aluminum business reported a 9 percent increase in sales to SR10.99 billion, with EBITDA more than doubling in the fourth quarter.

Looking ahead, Wilt emphasized that the pace of growth will accelerate as the company advances key initiatives, including the Phosphate 3 Phase 1 and Ar Rjum projects, which remain on budget and schedule. Maaden has also secured a gas supply for its future Phosphate 4 project.

“This pace of growth will only accelerate. Not only as we advance projects and increase the scale of our exploration program, but as we continue to grow production and implement technology that will further modernize, streamline and unlock value,” Wilt added.

Earnings per share for the year rose sharply to SR1.91, up from SR0.78 in 2024. Total shareholders’ equity increased by 18.7 percent to SR61.59 billion.