Egypt-Ethiopia tensions escalate over Nile mega-dam project

Construction at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, near Guba — a 145-meter-high, 1.8-kilometer-long concrete colossus set to become the largest hydropower plant in Africa. (AFP)
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Updated 28 August 2022
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Egypt-Ethiopia tensions escalate over Nile mega-dam project

  • Addis Ababa skipped talks in Washington intended to produce a final agreement
  • Cairo has vowed to defend 'the interests, capabilities and future' of the people

CAIRO: The Grand Renaissance Dam, being built on the Nile river by Ethiopia, has become a matter of great concern in the North African region as tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt mount, with Sudan caught in between.

This follows a series of developments, most notably the refusal of the Ethiopian government to take part in the Feb. 27 to 28 talks in Washington, that were intended to produce a final agreement with Egypt and Sudan on the filling and operation of the dam.

In response to Ethiopia’s stance, Egypt has launched an international diplomatic offensive to shore up its position with regard to its Nile water rights.

The Ethiopian side stands accused of dragging its feet after it skipped the latest round of talks. The decision left the Egyptians angry and the Americans, who had drafted an agreement with the technical input of the World Bank, disappointed.

Egypt relies on the Nile for 90 percent of its water. It contends that having a stable flow of the Nile waters is a matter of survival in a country where water is scarce.

FASTFACT

S4.2 billion

Cost of mega-dam on which Ethiopia bets to become a manufacturing power

A 1929 treaty (and a subsequent one signed in 1959) gave Egypt and Sudan rights to nearly all of the Nile’s waters. The document also gives Egypt veto powers over any infrastructure projects by upstream countries that would affect its share of the river’s resources.

Ethiopia launched construction in 2011 on the Blue Nile in the northern Ethiopian highlands, from where 85 percent of the Nile’s waters flow.

One of Egypt’s main worries is that if the water flow diminishes, it could affect Lake Nasser, the reservoir further downriver, behind Egypt’s Aswan Dam.

For more than four years, three-way talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over operating the dam and filling its reservoir had made no progress until the US took up the role of mediator.

According to a US Treasury Department statement, the latest plan builds on the previous seven years of technical studies and consultations between the three countries and provides for the resolution of all outstanding issues concerning the filling and operation of the dam.

The statement expressed appreciation for the Egyptian side, which was described as relying on negotiations as the sole means of resolving the dispute and prepared to acknowledge Ethiopian interests, provided Ethiopia acknowledged its vital interests.

It said: “We also note the concern of downstream populations in Sudan and Egypt due to unfinished work on the safe operation of the GERD, and the need to implement all necessary dam safety measures in accordance with international standards before filling begins.”

Egypt’s position is to make sure the upcoming structure – Africa’s biggest hydroelectric power plant – does not cause significant harm to downstream countries and the final testing and filling of the dam does not take place without an agreement.

Egypt has proposed a longer period – so that the level of the river does not dramatically drop, especially in the initial phase of filling the reservoir. The longer it takes to fill the reservoir, the less impact there will be on the level of the Nile.

For its part, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a statement reflecting the truth of the country’s position on the project.

It said the countries still had to discuss major issues related to the final agreement, and that Ethiopia was committed to continuing consultations with Egypt and Sudan to reach a final agreement regarding the filling and operation of the dam.

The statement made clear Ethiopia’s intention to start filling the dam as construction proceeded, even without reaching an agreement.

Such a course of action would constitute a violation of international law and article n.5 of the 2015 Declaration of Principles.

FASTFACT

90%

Reliance of Egypt on the Nile for its water

Things were not in favor of Egypt as long as Ethiopia was successful in portraying itself as the victim. But today, the shoe is on the other foot.

Ethiopia is in denial regarding the rules of geography and international laws and customs when it claims it has the absolute right to the Blue Nile because it runs through Ethiopian territory.

This is a clear violation of international law that stipulates equitable sharing of downstream benefits on international rivers, including the Nile River. The law gives Egypt a strong bargaining position in diplomatic or legal disputes.

In addition to a phone call between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and US President Donald Trump, the Egyptian diplomatic mission has been in touch with African countries with a view to winning their support.

Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry held a meeting with the ambassadors of African countries in Cairo, where he reviewed the latest developments in the Grand Renaissance Dam issue and highlighted Cairo’s efforts at reaching a fair and equitable agreement that advances the interests of all three parties.

Shoukry further briefed the envoys on Egypt’s efforts and achievements during its one-year presidency of the African Union and its commitment to pursue efforts to promote joint African work.

Egypt has also sought support in the Arab League, by presenting a draft resolution that stresses Cairo and Khartoum’s rights to the Nile waters.

The Arab League has extended full support to the draft resolution and rejected any unilateral measures by Ethiopia. Egypt’s draft resolution welcomed the agreement prepared by the US government as “a fair and equitable agreement that fulfills the interests of the three countries.”

Many in Egypt think it is no longer useful to stay silent in the face of Sudan’s unabashed and inexplicable pro-Ethiopian stance.

Rather the differences with Sudan should be addressed through high-level and honest dialogue, which would make the Sudanese transitional government aware of its responsibilities and extent of the damage it is causing to Egyptian interests.

Sudan’s expression of reservations over the Egyptian draft resolution came as a shock to everyone in attendance at the Arab League meeting.

Some of the attendees said while the strength of Arab support for the resolution was palpable, the Sudanese side, instead of showing enthusiasm, requested that the country’s name not be included in the resolution.

It argued that the resolution did not serve its interests and that the Arab League should not be dragged into the matter. The Sudanese also expressed fears about an Arab-Ethiopian confrontation emanating from the dispute.

Against this tense backdrop, the Ethiopian government has shown no sign of changing its tune. It recently launched the third round of its fund-raising program to complete the construction of the dam and fill the reservoir, even though no international agreement has been reached.

The six-month program, launched by Ethiopia’s President Sahle-Work Zewde, aims to involve citizens in the dam’s construction.

Amid the furor over the dam, it is tempting to forget that the riparian states share a culture with similar features, the same destiny and one river.

They ought to bear in mind that negotiation is the fastest route to reach a solution for any crisis.

Direct communication between Cairo, Addis Ababa and Khartoum is arguably the best guarantee for prevention of any attempt by other parties to take advantage of the tense situation.


US presses missile issue as new Iran talks to open in Geneva

Updated 59 min 9 sec ago
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US presses missile issue as new Iran talks to open in Geneva

  • New round of negotiations in Geneva comes after the US carried out a massive military build-up in the region
  • The dispute between the countries mostly revolves around Iran’s nuclear program

GENEVA: The United States and Iran are set to hold indirect talks in Switzerland on Thursday aiming to strike a deal to avert fresh conflict and bring an end to weeks of threats.
The new round of negotiations in Geneva comes after the US carried out a massive military build-up in the region and President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Iran if a deal is not reached.
In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump accused Iran of “pursuing sinister nuclear ambitions.”
He also claimed Tehran had “already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.”
The Iranian foreign ministry called these claims “big lies.”
The maximum range of Iran’s missiles is 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) according to what Tehran has publicly disclosed. However the US Congressional Research Service estimates they top out at about 3,000 kilometers — less than a third of the distance to the continental United States.
The dispute between the countries mostly revolves around Iran’s nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed at building an atomic bomb but Tehran insists is peaceful.
However the US has also been pushing to discuss Iran’s ballistic missile program, as well as Tehran’s support for armed groups hostile toward Israel.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran must also negotiate on its missile program, calling Tehran’s refusal to discuss ballistic weapons “a big, big problem” on the eve of the talks.
He followed up by saying “the president wants diplomatic solutions.”
Iran has taken anything beyond the nuclear issue off the negotiating table and has demanded that the US sanctions crippling its economy be part of any agreement.
‘Neither war nor peace’
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Wednesday he had a “favorable outlook for the negotiations” that could finally “move beyond this ‘neither war nor peace’ situation.”
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation at the talks, has called them “a historic opportunity,” adding that a deal was “within reach.”
In a foreign ministry statement that followed a meeting with his Oman counterpart, Araghchi said the success of the US negotiations depend “on the seriousness of the other side and its avoidance of contradictory behavior and positions.”
The US will be represented by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who is married to Trump’s daughter Ivanka.
The two countries held talks earlier this month in Oman, which is mediating the negotiations, then gathered for a second round in Geneva last week.
A previous attempt at negotiations collapsed when Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran last June, beginning a 12-day war that Washington briefly joined to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.
In January, fresh tensions between the US and Iran emerged after Tehran engaged in a bloody crackdown on widespread protests that have posed one of the greatest challenges to the Islamic republic since its inception.
Trump has threatened several times to intervene to “help” the Iranian people.
Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that “the region seems to expect a war at this point.”
In January, there was “a big push by a number of Middle Eastern states to convince the US not to” strike Iran.
“But there’s a lot of apprehension at this point, because the expectation is that this time” a war would be “bigger” than the one in June.
Tehran residents who spoke to AFP were divided as to whether there would be renewed conflict.
Homemaker Tayebeh noted that Trump had “said that war would be very bad for Iran.”
“There would be famine and people would suffer a lot. People are suffering now, but at least with war, our fate might be clear,” the 60-year-old said.