LONDON: If China and the US cough, other countries can catch the flu; so significant is the economic ripple effect of these two behemoths.
Trade tariffs and diverging policies toward North Korea are among a growing list of issues that will likely drive discord this year. Energy stakeholders cannot afford to ignore the yo-yo of cooperation and frustration between these two titans.
China is the world’s biggest buyer of oil, surpassing the US in annual gross crude oil imports in 2017 with 8.4m bpd compared to the US’ 7.9m bpd.
Last December, preliminary data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that China’s crude oil imports rose 15.7% year-on-year to a record high of 10.48m bpd in November.
Plus, the Asian Development Bank expects energy demand to almost double in the Asia and Pacific region by 2030; music to Middle Eastern energy exporters’ ears.
To the west, the boomerang nature of the US’ energy industry suggests more surprises await in the 2020s.
The US has been a net energy importer since 1953, but the continued growth in petroleum and natural gas production means the country will be a net energy exporter by 2020, according to the US’ Energy Information Administration (EIA).
This is an astonishing turnaround, especially considering UN data shows that the country’s population more than doubled from 158 million in 1950 to 324 million in 2017.
Take the LNG market alone: having become a net natural gas exporter on an annual basis in 2017, the US could be the world’s largest exporter by the mid-2020s.
When it comes to economic growth, China takes the crown. Beijing will manage the world’s largest GDP by 2050, while the US’ position on the global scoreboard slips one spot to third place, detailed PwC.
Yes, China is experiencing its lowest growth rate since 1990 and some justifiably anticipate another deceleration post-2020, toward 5% annual growth.
But perspective is vital; President Trump would be delighted if the US steadily posted 5% annual growth. For now, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects China’s GDP growth this year to be 6.2% versus the US’ growth of 2.5%.
Simmering tensions between the two will undoubtedly persist. Beijing tends to act without much political fanfare, while President Trump is more vocal but often has less of a bite.
Still, the consensus among Middle Eastern energy stakeholders is that codependence will prevail over strategic mistrust – for now. Making more friends is the Middle East’s best hedging tool. With some strategic quid pro quo, a worst-case scenario can see the region grappling with a cold while isolationists battle the flu.
How can Middle Eastern energy stakeholders plot a safe path through this year’s geopolitical wilderness to remain competitive and have energy security? Ignore isolationists and make more friends. Middle Eastern countries are relatively small; the entire economy of the GCC roughly equates to that of India.
While it’s important to be friends with the US, it’s no longer enough. Alliances with China, India, wider Asia, Europe and the fastest-growing hubs in Africa are also critical.
For example, the Middle East must attract investments from China’s One Belt, One Road initiative (OBOR), as well as India’s Think West policy.
Popular estimates for Chinese investment under the OBOR initiative range from $1 trillion to $8 trillion, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Comparatively, the Marshall Plan after World War II provided the equivalent of $800 billion in reconstruction funds to Europe.
Meanwhile, India’s efforts to integrate itself deeper into geopolitical dimensions, economies and transnational networks are gaining traction.
The country’s $2 trillion economy recently overtook France to become the world’s sixth largest economy, according to Acuité Ratings and Research. PwC expects India’s GDP growth to overtake the US by 2050, securing the number two spot behind China.
Clearly, nurturing friendships in such high places – the world’s fastest growing economies and biggest energy consumers – can support the Middle East’s coffers while minimizing the bruises caused by the sharp elbows of geopolitics.
Saudi Arabia-based Apicorp said the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) must invest $260 billion in its power sector alone to meet rising electricity demand in 2018-2022. This is just one example of where friends with deep pockets and a reliance on imports can help the Middle East scale its cliff of energy demand.
Saudi Energy Forum 2019: How Middle East stakeholders can remain competitive, secure
Saudi Energy Forum 2019: How Middle East stakeholders can remain competitive, secure
Kuwait Fund for Development: Six decades of humanitarian and developmental impact across globe
On Dec. 31, the Kuwait Fund for Development marks the anniversary of its establishment, opening a new chapter of success and ambition as one of the most prominent pioneers of development on both regional and global levels. Founded in 1961, the fund became the first and oldest development institution to operate in Arab countries and other developing nations.
Today, after more than six decades of continuous work, the Kuwait Fund for Development remains steadfast in its mission and has never ceased its efforts to support development causes in developing countries. As it celebrates its 64th anniversary, the fund has drawn a national portrait under the theme “Partners in Development,” reflected through its projects spread across the globe, all of which aim to build brighter and more sustainable future.
An external development arm
The establishment of the Kuwait Fund for Development embodied a wise and visionary decision by the leadership of Kuwait at the time. Kuwait was the only developing country that chose to share the challenges of development with other developing nations, cooperating with them through the provision of concessional loans, grants, financial assistance, and technical support tailored to their development priorities.
Since its inception, the Kuwait Fund for Development has served as Kuwait’s external development arm, sparing no effort in supporting development causes and extending assistance to developing countries worldwide.
Vision and early beginnings
In the early 1960s, the late Amir Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, then head of the financial department, proposed the idea of establishing a development entity that would serve Kuwait’s foreign policy and assist Arab and other developing countries in achieving development across various sectors. The idea received strong support from the late Amir Sheikh Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, as it aligned with Kuwait’s vision at the time to build a modern state.
Consequently, an Amiri decree was issued on Dec. 31, 1961, establishing the Kuwait Fund for Development with an initial capital of 50 million Kuwaiti dinars ($162.6 million).
Global reach and development impact
The fund’s activities have extended to all corners of the world, contributing to the financing of projects in 106 countries, including 16 Arab countries, 41 African countries, 19 in East and South Asia and the Pacific, 17 in Central Asia and Europe, and 12 in Latin America and the Caribbean.
This support was delivered through 1,037 concessional loans provided to the governments of these countries, with a total value of approximately 7 billion Kuwaiti dinars. In addition, the fund has provided grants and technical assistance to support a wide range of development services, helping beneficiary countries implement their development programs. A total of 420 grants and technical assistance operations were extended, amounting to approximately 401 million Kuwaiti dinars.
Loan agreements
During the past year, the Kuwait Fund for Development signed several loan agreements supporting development across different regions of the world. Among these were two loan agreements with the government of Bahrain. The first loan, valued at 31.25 million Kuwaiti dinars, contributed to financing the Electricity Transmission Networks Development Project. The second loan, valued at 10 million Kuwaiti dinars, supported the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Highway Development Project (Phase II).
On the sidelines of the World Bank Group meetings held in Washington, D.C., the fund has also signed a 4 million Kuwaiti dinar-worth loan agreement with Saint Lucia to help finance the Sir Julian R. Hunte Highway Project, as well as another 4 million Kuwaiti dinar-worth loan agreement with Belize to support the George Price Highway Project.
Supporting and assisting refugees
The Kuwait Fund for Development’s contributions to humanitarian action stand out at both regional and international levels. Since its establishment, the fund has represented a unique model in supporting and assisting refugees in countries affected by disasters, conflicts, and wars, in line with Kuwait’s moderate and balanced policy.
These efforts have helped strengthen Kuwait’s relations with Arab and international partners. The fund has played a significant role in the reconstruction of Lebanon and Iraq following periods of crisis, and its assistance to the Palestinian people has never ceased.
International Participation
Over the past year, the Kuwait Fund for Development recorded notable participations in major international forums. These included taking part in the 2025 annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., with a delegation headed by the fund’s Acting Director General Walid Shamlan Al-Bahar. The fund also took part in the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, held in Tokyo, Japan.
Additional international engagements included participation in the Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries, held in Awaza, Turkmenistan, and the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, organized by the UN in Seville, Spain.
