LONDON: Oil prices are expected to oscillate close to current levels well into the next decade, averaging around $65-$70 per barrel through 2023, according to an annual survey of energy professionals conducted by Reuters.
Despite the recent slump in oil prices, forecasts have edged down by less than $5 per barrel compared with the last annual survey conducted at the start of 2018, and have changed little over the last three years.
Long-term expectations for the average price of Brent crude remain anchored around $70 per barrel, close to the $72 average realized in 2018.
The results are based on the responses from just over 1,000 energy market professionals to a poll conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 11.
Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
In 2020, Brent is also expected to average $65 per barrel, revised down by $5 or less compared with prior surveys.
Far fewer respondents now see any risk of prices spiking to $100 or more by the end of the decade as a surge in US shale output has eased fears of supply shortages.
The proportion of respondents expecting prices to average more than $90 in 2020 has fallen to just 3 percent this year, from 13 percent at the time of the 2016 survey.
By 2023, prices are still expected to average $70, with most forecasts between $60 and $80, which suggests most energy professionals think there will be enough production developed at this level to meet consumption growth.
Among survey respondents, 26 percent are involved directly in oil and gas production (exploration, drilling, production, refining, marketing and field services).
Most of the rest work in banking and finance (18 percent), research (9 percent), professional services (9 percent), hedge funds (8 percent) and physical commodity trading (6 percent).
The results from respondents involved directly in the oil and gas industry were similar to those in other sectors.
Oil and gas insiders and those outside the industry have more or less the same outlook for prices in 2019 and 2020.
Insiders are marginally more bullish than outsiders on prices, but the difference is just $1.50 per barrel in 2019, rising to $3.50 by 2023.
Respondents exhibit more certainty about prices this year and next compared with subsequent years, which is natural given that uncertainty tends to increase over longer-time horizons.
Responses for 2019-2020 are tightly clustered, while expectations for 2021-2023 exhibit more variation. Even so, few respondents expect average prices to fall below $55 or rise above $85 in the next five years.
The level of uncertainty, as measured by the standard deviation of responses, has remained constant over the last four surveys.
Short-term uncertainty has remained little changed, with the standard deviation of responses for the first forecast year at $8 in 2019, compared with $7 in 2018, $6 in 2017 and $8 in 2016.
Long-term uncertainty has also held constant, with the standard deviation of forecasts for the fifth year at $19 in 2019, compared with $18 in 2018, $18 in 2017 and $20 in 2016.
There is no significant difference between oil and gas industry insiders and outsiders, with the level of uncertainty similar in both groups for both short-term and long-term prices.
Overall, most respondents expect the oil market to remain comfortably supplied in the foreseeable future, with prices oscillating around the current level or a little higher and relatively moderate volatility.
Oil prices expected at around $65-$70 through 2023
Oil prices expected at around $65-$70 through 2023
- Despite the recent slump in oil prices, forecasts have edged down by less than $5 per barrel compared with the last annual survey conducted at the start of 2018
- Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018
First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment
RIYADH: The EU–Saudi Arabia Business and Investment Dialogue on Advancing Critical Raw Materials Value Chains, held in Riyadh as part of the Future Minerals Forum, brought together senior policymakers, industry leaders, and investors to advance strategic cooperation across critical raw materials value chains.
Organized under a Team Europe approach by the EU–GCC Cooperation on Green Transition Project, in coordination with the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, the European Chamber of Commerce in the Kingdom and in close cooperation with FMF, the dialogue provided a high-level platform to explore European actions under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU alongside the Kingdom’s aspirations for minerals, industrial, and investment priorities.
This is in line with Saudi Vision 2030 and broader regional ambitions across the GCC, MENA, and Africa.
ResourceEU is the EU’s new strategic action plan, launched in late 2025, to secure a reliable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, rare earths, and cobalt, reducing dependency on single suppliers, such as China, by boosting domestic extraction, processing, recycling, stockpiling, and strategic partnerships with resource-rich nations.
The first ever EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials was opened by the bloc’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Christophe Farnaud, together with Saudi Deputy Minister for Mining Development Turki Al-Babtain, turning policy alignment into concrete cooperation.
Farnaud underlined the central role of international cooperation in the implementation of the EU’s critical raw materials policy framework.
“As the European Union advances the implementation of its Critical Raw Materials policy, international cooperation is indispensable to building secure, diversified, and sustainable value chains. Saudi Arabia is a key partner in this effort. This dialogue reflects our shared commitment to translate policy alignment into concrete business and investment cooperation that supports the green and digital transitions,” said the ambassador.
Discussions focused on strengthening resilient, diversified, and responsible CRM supply chains that are essential to the green and digital transitions.
Participants explored concrete opportunities for EU–Saudi cooperation across the full value chain, including exploration, mining, and processing and refining, as well as recycling, downstream manufacturing, and the mobilization of private investment and sustainable finance, underpinned by high environmental, social, and governance standards.
From the Saudi side, the dialogue was framed as a key contribution to the Kingdom’s industrial transformation and long-term economic diversification agenda under Vision 2030, with a strong focus on responsible resource development and global market integration.
“Developing globally competitive mineral hubs and sustainable value chains is a central pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s industrial transformation. Our engagement with the European Union through this dialogue to strengthen upstream and downstream integration, attract high-quality investment, and advance responsible mining and processing. Enhanced cooperation with the EU, capitalizing on the demand dynamics of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, will be key to delivering long-term value for both sides,” said Al-Babtain.
Valere Moutarlier, deputy director-general for European industry decarbonization, and directorate-general for the internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and SMEs at European Commission, said the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU provided a clear framework to strengthen Europe’s resilience while deepening its cooperation with international partners.
“Cooperation with Saudi Arabia is essential to advancing secure, sustainable, and diversified critical raw materials value chains. Dialogues such as this play a key role in translating policy ambitions into concrete industrial and investment cooperation,” she added.
