KARACHI: Shortly before the end of 2017, Pakistan’s government had devalued the national currency. The trend continued in the following year with the rupee depreciating by 32 percent in 2018, having a detrimental effect on the country’s overall economy.
The currency which traded at about Rs84 against the US Dollar in 2010 surged against the greenback from Rs97 to Rs105 between 2013 and 2017, with the government deciding to devalue the currency to Rs110 on December 8, 2017. Ever since then, the rupee has witnessed five rounds of devaluation against the US Dollar in 2018, leaving it at a perilous level of Rs139.
The pressure on the rupee continued to build up after the country’s foreign exchange reserves started to weaken from $24.6 billion — including $19.4 billion held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in October 2016 — to $14 billion. This also included $7.4 billion held by the SBP until December 21, 2018, mainly due to increasing imports and decreasing exports.
The rupee’s devaluation took place against the backdrop of declining forex reserves, exerting pressure on the country’s capital market, external trade, and interest rate. Financial gurus termed 2016 and 2017 as tough years for the country’s economy — a trend which continued in 2018 after the country witnessed a political transition with the end of the five-year tenure of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government and the emergence of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) administration.
“Backed by high oil prices, the trade deficit of the country continued to swell. During the last two years, Pakistan has had to suffer from record high fiscal deficit. These factors increased pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves and, ultimately, on the rupee which could not sustain pressure,” Aqeel Karim Dhedhi, Chairman of AKD Group, one of Pakistan’s biggest business conglomerates, told Arab News on Tuesday.
The impact of the country’s tough fiscal position also affected the bourse, which turned from the best performing market in 2016 to the worst equity market witnessing a fall of 8.41 percent in 2018. “The equity market continued to fall for the second consecutive year. This fall in two successive years came after a period of 22 years. Pakistan lost $26 billion of market capitalization in 2018,” Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, said.
The biggest rally of the year was seen when Saudi Arabia promised to provide a $6 billion financial package in October 2018 after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to the Kingdom. The market gained 12 percent – or 4,289 points – in the wake of that trip.
However, investors remained skeptical due to the key interest rate being more than two percent, in addition to more than 20 percent currency devaluation, high external and fiscal deficit, and an uncertain outcome of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to fill the external financing gap of $21-22 billion. A lack of clarity about the overall economic roadmap didn’t help with the cause either.
In the backdrop of the emerging economic situation, Pakistan’s central bank was also moved to hike it’s key interest rate by 4.25 percent to 10 percent on November 30, 2018 – at a six-year-high level – after dipping to a 40-year low at 5.75 percent in May 2016.
“The cumulative outcome of the rupee’s devaluation, interest rate hike, and inflation were seen in the markets where businessmen had to face harsh conditions in 2018,” Atiq Mir, Chairman of Karachi Tajir Ittehad, an umbrella of nearly a 100 trade associations, told Arab News.
The CPI inflation General increased by 6.5 percent on a year-on-year basis in November 2018. The lowest level of inflation witnessed was at 3.2 percent in March 2018, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
However, experts believe that the measures taken by the government to discourage imports, smuggling and under-invoicing will yield a positive result in 2019. “These steps, including phasing out of the black economy, will have a positive impact on the local industry,” Dhedhi said, adding: “I don’t think rupee will be further devalued.”
“The measures to restrict imports and declining trend in the international oil market are likely to create a positive impact in 2019 and may also reduce current account deficit,” Muzzamil Aslam, a senior economist, said optimistically.
“I believe the worst is behind us and there are some silver linings that can give us hope and confidence about the future. The recent efforts made on the macro front have created room for managing external and fiscal challenges in the short run. Meanwhile, the policy strategists are crafting the long-term sustainable policy for growth and eventual prosperity,” Khurram Schehzad, a senior financial analyst and CEO of Alpha Beta Core, said.
“I am confident that 2019 will see Pakistan set course on a path of sustained prosperity & peace and lay the foundation of a society of equal opportunity for all its citizens,” Asad Umar, Pakistan’s finance minister, had tweeted on New Year’s Eve.
The optimism exhibited by experts and stakeholders was further bolstered by the astounding performance of the equity market on the first day of 2019. Pakistan’s stock market greeted the New Year with the benchmark KSE 100 index posting gains of 980 points.
Pakistan's economic carnage over in 2019, say analysts
Pakistan's economic carnage over in 2019, say analysts
- Depleting foreign exchange reserves, swelling trade deficit, increasing interest rate, and spiraling inflation add to the pressure
- Several experts remain hopeful and tell Arab News that the worst may be behind us
Over half of Saudi customers eyeing to boost online spending in next 12 months
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce landscape is expanding rapidly, with 53 percent of customers in the Kingdom looking to boost their online spending in the next 12 months, a survey showed.
According to a report released by UK-based tech firm checkout.com, the number of consumers in Saudi Arabia who shop regularly on e-commerce platforms has increased by 180 percent in the past four years, signifying the growing digital marketplace in the Kingdom.
Moreover, the analysis found a 90 percent surge in individuals making online purchases at least once a day since 2020.
“Amidst an era marked by swift digital transformation, Saudi Arabia’s digital payments ecosystem has demonstrated exceptional growth, while Saudi consumers continue to be increasingly enthusiastic about online shopping demonstrated by an impressive 180 percent increase in monthly e-commerce shoppers since 2020,” said checkout.com in the analysis.
It added: “This year’s report highlights that over half of Saudi consumers (53 percent) are looking to boost their online spending in the next 12 months. This optimistic outlook reflects the digital economy’s resilience and the still untapped growth potential in Saudi Arabia.”
Highlighting the growth of digital payments in the Kingdom, the study noted that consumers preferring cash on delivery for online purchases declined by 66 percent since 2020.
The report also revealed that 75 percent of online shoppers in Saudi Arabia indicated they would opt for card payments if the cash on delivery option is unavailable.
“This transition is primarily propelled by consumers’ increasing prioritization of payment security. It also reflects a broader trust in and acceptance of digital payments, aligning with trends observed across the MENA region,” added checkout.com.
From a regional perspective, the report underscored the fast adoption of digital payments by consumers in the Middle East and North Africa, with the overall volume of transactions in the region growing nearly sevenfold at 678 percent since 2020.
Earlier this month, a study released by management consulting company Arthur D. Little suggested that Saudi Arabia’s fintech sector has made significant strides as it nears its goal to become a regional financial hub.
“Saudi Arabia has embarked on a journey to transform society to be less dependent on cash transactions,” said the firm in its report.
In April, a separate analysis released by UK-based data analytics company GlobalData projected that cashless payments in Saudi Arabia are expected to surge by 7.6 percent in 2024 to SR550 billion ($146.8 billion).
GlobalData also noted that the Saudi card payments market will grow at an annual rate of 6.4 percent between 2024 and 2028 to reach SR705.2 billion.
Artificial intelligence hitting labor forces like a “tsunami” — IMF chief
ZURICH: Artificial intelligence is hitting the global labor market “like a tsunami” International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday.
Artificial intelligence is likely to impact 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies and 40 percent of jobs around the world in the next two years, Georgieva told an event in Zurich.
“We have very little time to get people ready for it, businesses ready for it,” she told the event organized by the Swiss Institute of International Studies, associated to the University of Zurich.
“It could bring tremendous increase in productivity if we manage it well, but it can also lead to more misinformation and, of course, more inequality in our society.”
Georgieva said the world economy had become more prone to shocks in recent years, citing the global pandemic in 2020, as well as the war in Ukraine.
Although she expected more shocks, particularly due to the climate crisis, remained remarkably resilient, she said.
“We are not in global recession,” said Georgieva, who was heckled by protesters calling for action on climate change and tackling developing world debt.
“Last year there were fears that most economies would slip into recession, that didn’t happen,” she said. “Inflation that has hit us with a very strong force is on the decline, almost everywhere.”
Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan, who also spoke at the event, said the fight against inflation in Switzerland was now far advanced.
Inflation rose to 1.4 percent in April, the 11th month in a row that price rises have been within the SNB’s 0-2 percent target range.
“The outlook for inflation is much better. It looks that for the next few years, inflation could be really in the same range of price stability,” Jordan said.
“But there is a lot of uncertainty.”
North East England to benefit from $3.7bn Saudi investments: UK official
RIYADH: North East England is poised to receive a significant economic boost with investments worth £3 billion ($3.7 billion) from Saudi Arabia, as highlighted by the British deputy prime minister.
During the opening of the two-day GREAT Futures Initiative Conference in Riyadh on Tuesday, Oliver Dowden announced new figures, stating that this investment is expected to sustain approximately 2,000 jobs in the region.
Following virtual remarks from UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Dowden said: “Our collaboration has enabled an exponential increase in our mutual prosperity and demonstrated that our modern, forward-looking partnership can meet the challenges of the 21st Century.”
The event serves as the launchpad for a year-long campaign designed to highlight British expertise and capabilities in sectors that support Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
Furthermore, the conference features a UK business delegation exceeding 450 members, representing the largest turnout in over 10 years.
A key highlight of the event is the fireside chat between Dowden and Saudi Commerce Minister Majid Al-Qasabi.
Dowden expressed optimism about the future of the UK-Saudi relations: “GREAT FUTURES will be an important moment for British business. We’re opening up our markets to one another so that investment, exports, tourism, and collaboration flow in both directions. Britain doesn’t just endorse Vision 2030, we want to be a part of it,” he stated in an official release.
Among the announcements, Dowden revealed that Saudi companies have raised £56.1 billion in London’s capital markets since 2022, with £10.3 billion classified as green and sustainable finance.
The prime minister also announced the first overseas expansion of the UK’s Office for Investment in the Gulf, a joint venture between 10 Downing Street and the Department for Business and Trade.
This expansion is aimed at connecting public and private expertise to facilitate capital flows and address potential barriers, enhancing the investment landscape between the two nations.
Today, the UK will also sign an updated memorandum of understanding with the Kingdom, renewing a joint commitment to further investment.
Strengthening cultural and educational ties, the University of Strathclyde will become the first English university to establish a physical presence in Saudi Arabia at the Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University.
Considered the largest institute for women globally, this new partnership will enable female students to study a broader range of subjects, including business and STEM.
Additionally, the UK and Saudi Arabia have agreed to establish an Education Task Force, chaired by Sir Steve Smith and Saudi Education Minister Yousef Al-Benyan, to promote further cooperation in higher education.
This initiative has already resulted in 40 partnerships being signed between the two nations.
As part of the ongoing dialogue and cooperation, Dowden is scheduled to visit the culturally significant city of AlUla to discuss sharing cultural expertise and collaborations.
Ministers accompanying the prime minister at the conference include the British secretary of state for business and trade, the secretary of state for culture, media and sport, the minister for investment, and the parliamentary undersecretary of state for health.
This visit coincides with the commencement of the 7th round of negotiations between the UK and the Gulf Cooperation Council on a modern and ambitious trade deal.
Building on a robust £59 billion trading relationship, this exchange could potentially add £1.6 billion to the UK economy, facilitating easier trade with all six Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, and enhancing mutual investment opportunities.
Key partners include British Airways, which plays a pivotal role in promoting the UK as a leading destination for business, tourism, and investment.
An additional lead partner, HSBC UK Bank Plc, brings its global financial expertise to support regional firms in achieving their growth ambitions.
Further partners include North Highland, a change and transformation consultancy, TAG, a content production agency and Innovo, an urban development firm.
Oil Updates – prices steady as investors eye US inflation, OPEC report
SINGAPORE: Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors eyed fresh drivers, including upcoming US inflation indicators and a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries this week, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures inched 4 cents higher to $83.40 a barrel at 6:15 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 5 cents to $79.17 a barrel.
The benchmark contracts settled higher on Monday on signs of improving demand in the US and China, world’s top two oil consumers.
“Oil prices were slightly higher overnight but remain in a broad holding pattern over the past week, with the lead-up to the upcoming US inflation data keeping some reservations in place,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
Investors are watching the US Consumer Price Index data due on Wednesday for clues to when the Federal Reserve will consider cutting interest rates.
“Ahead, the OPEC monthly oil report will be in focus to provide any updates on global oil demand, with some eyes on whether the previous optimistic guidance around the summer travel season will continue to hold,” said Yeap.
The latest OPEC monthly oil market report is due to come later Tuesday, based on the organization’s website.
Meanwhile, the market is also watching wildfires in remote western Canada that could disrupt the country’s oil supply.
Firefighters on Monday were racing to contain one blaze in British Columbia and two in Alberta near the heart of the country’s oil sands industry.
No operational disruptions had been reported. But Alex Hodes, analyst at energy brokerage StoneX, said Canada’s 3.3 million barrel per day production capacity is “very likely to be affected.”
The market also continued to react to bullish comments from Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul Ghani, over the weekend, according to a note from ANZ analysts.
Ghani said on Sunday that Iraq would honor voluntary output cuts made by OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-OPEC producers, at its upcoming meeting on June 1.
That reversed course from his Saturday comments that Iraq had made enough voluntary reductions and would not agree to any new output cuts.
Pakistan vows to foster efficiency, sustainable growth in public entities amid privatization push
- Finance minister chairs cabinet committee meeting to review privatization agenda of public entities
- Pakistan agreed to overhaul loss-making entities in exchange for a financial bailout from IMF last year
KARACHI: Key ministers of the government, including Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb this week vowed to ensure efficiency and sustainable growth in Pakistan’s public entities as Islamabad moves to privatize state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that have accumulated losses worth billions over the years.
Pakistan agreed to overhaul its public entities under a $3 billion financial bailout agreement it signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year, a deal that helped it avert a sovereign debt default in 2023. The IMF has said Pakistan’s SOEs whose losses are burning a hole in government finances would need stronger governance. Pakistan is currently negotiating with the international lender for a larger, longer program for which it must implement an ambitious reforms agenda, including the privatization of debt-ridden SOEs.
Among the main entities Pakistan is pushing to privatize is its national flag carrier, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA). The government is putting on the block a stake ranging from 51 percent to 100 percent.
Aurangzeb chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on State-Owned Enterprises on Monday which was attended by ministers of maritime affairs, economic affairs, housing and works, the governor of Pakistan’s central bank and other officials. The meeting was held to evaluate the performance of the country’s public entities and review the progress of the government’s privatization agenda.
“The meeting concluded with a commitment to fostering transparency, efficiency, and sustainable growth within the State-Owned Enterprises, reflecting the government’s dedication to ensuring the optimal utilization of public resources,” the finance ministry said.
Aurangzeb directed concerned ministries and divisions to submit proposals for the categorization of their respective public entities by May 20. The step is aimed at reviewing the rationale for retaining any commercial functions within the public sector, the ministry said.
“The objective is to retain only the essential functions within the public sector & to assign the remaining functions to the private sector,” it said. “At the same time the entities which remain in public sector have to be more competitive, accountable, and responsive to the needs of citizens.”
The finance minister noted that there were gaps in the governance and financial management of some companies which needed to be addressed. He directed the vacancies on the Board of Directors (BoD) of some companies to be filled and for others to have their accounts audited.
“The Chairman emphasized that continued losses & fiscal haemorrhage had to be stopped as a national priority,” the finance ministry said. “Therefore SOEs restructuring & privatization agenda needed to be expedited in order to improve the efficiency of these entities.”
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has assured the business community that the privatization process would be a transparent one and has warned the country’s bureaucracy that the government would not tolerate any delays in it.
