LONDON: OPEC cut its forecast of global demand growth for oil next year for a third straight month on Thursday, citing headwinds facing the broader economy, and key consuming countries in particular, from trade disputes and volatile emerging markets.
In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand would increase by 1.36 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, marking a decline of 50,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
The group also cut the estimate for demand in 2019 for its own crude by another 300,000 bpd from last month to 31.8 million bpd, which in turn marks a decline of 900,000 bpd from the projection for 2018.
OPEC said its own production rose by 132,000 bpd in September to 32.76 million bpd, the highest according to the monthly report since August 2017.
Saudi Arabia and Libya increased output last month by 108,000 bpd and 103,000 bpd respectively, more than offsetting the 150,000-bpd decline from Iran to 3.447 million bpd, as reported by secondary sources.
OPEC said Iran told the group its oil output had fallen by just 51,000 bpd to 3.775 million bpd.
The group, led by Saudi Arabia, has pledged to increase output to compensate for the loss of any Iranian supply to US sanctions that come into force next month.
OPEC cut its forecast for growth in non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 by 30,000 bpd to 2.12 million bpd.
OPEC cuts forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019
OPEC cuts forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019
- OPEC cut its forecast for growth in non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 by 30,000 bpd to 2.12 million bpd
G7 countries to release oil reserves as IEA agrees to largest ever market intervention
- IEA recommends release of 400 million barrels
RIYADH: Germany, Japan and Austria will release part of their oil reserves after the International Energy Agency recommended the release of 400 million barrels of oil from stockpiles, the largest such move in IEA history.
In a statement, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the flow of oil, gas and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz have all but stopped, leading global energy supply to fall by around 20 percent.
Ahead of the confirmation of the move, a larger intervention than the 182.7 million barrels that were released in 2022 by in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, several countries began setting out plans to bring their reserves into play as countries grapple with soaring crude prices amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Birol said: “I can now announce that IEA countries have decided to launch the largest ever release of emergency oil stocks in our agency's history.
“IEA countries will be making 400 million barrels of oil available to the market to offset the supply lost through the effective closure of the strait.
“This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets.”
Germany’s Economy Minister Katherina Reiche confirmed on Wednesday her government plans to limit petrol price increases at filling stations to once a day and to introduce more stringent antitrust regulation of the sector.
She did not give an exact timing for those measures, but added that the US and Japan would be the largest contributors to the release of the oil reserves.
The US has not confirmed it would do so, but its Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told Fox News on Wednesday that “these are the kinds of moments that these reserves are used for.”
The announcements did not stop oil prices rising, with Brent crude up 3.26 percent to $90.66 a barrel at 4:29 p.m Saudi time, and West Texas Intermediate up 3.12 percent to $86.05. Both were some way below the $119 a barrel seen earlier in the week.
“The situation regarding oil supplies is tense, as the Strait of Hormuz is currently virtually impassable,” Germany’s Reiche said.
“We will comply with this request and contribute our share, because Germany stands behind the IEA’s most important principle: mutual solidarity,” Reiche said about the IEA’s request.
According to a statement by Reiche’s ministry, Germany will contribute 2.64 million tonnes of oil. This corresponds to 19.51 million barrels.
Reiche stressed there was no supply shortage in the country, which has a legally mandated reserve of oil and oil products intended to cover 90 days’ demand.
Austrian Economy Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer said his country was releasing part of the emergency oil reserve and extending the national strategic gas reserve, adding: “One thing is clear: in a crisis, there must be no crisis winners at the expense of commuters and businesses.”
Acting ahead of the IEA move, G7 member Japan announced plans to release 15 days' worth of private-sector oil reserves and one month's worth of state oil reserves.
“Rather than wait for formal IEA approval of a coordinated international reserve release, Japan will act first to ease global energy market supply and demand, releasing reserves as early as the 16th of this month,” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in a broadcast statement.
Following a meeting with the IEA on Wednesday, G7 energy ministers said: “In principle, we support the implementation of proactive measures to address the situation, including the use of strategic reserves.”
All IEA member countries are required to keep 90 days’ worth of their nation’s oil use in reserve in case of global disruption.
