NAIROBI: Five years after Al-Shabab fighters burst into a luxury shopping mall in Kenya’s capital, hurling grenades and starting a days-long siege that left 67 people dead, analysts say the Somalia-based extremist group has been pushed down Africa’s east coast as far as Mozambique as its regional threat expands.
The assault on Westgate Mall on a sunny weekend afternoon horrified the world and exposed weaknesses in Kenya’s security forces after it took them hours to respond. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta promised reforms.
Now the government of East Africa’s commercial hub is praising itself, saying security forces have effectively limited attacks to areas near the Somali border. “We learnt our mistakes and corrected them,” police Inspector General Joseph Boinnet told reporters this week, pointing out real-time intelligence sharing among security agencies.
Analysts, however, say few sustainable lessons have been learned while Al-Shabab, the deadliest Islamic extremist group in sub-Saharan Africa, has changed its strategy with devastating effects.
The Al-Qaeda-linked extremist group has vowed retribution on Kenya for sending troops to Somalia since 2011. The group has killed hundreds of people inside Kenya, which has been targeted more than any other of the six countries providing troops to an African Union force in Somalia.
“Al-Shabab’s goal in carrying out attacks outside Somalia is to pressure authorities within the region to pull their troops out of Somalia. That aim has not been achieved and all indications are that the movement continues to plot assaults in cities across East Africa to advance its objectives,” said Murithi Mutiga, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
A new report by the think tank says some Al-Shabab extremists previously based on the Kenyan coast have moved south into Tanzania and, in response to crackdowns there, relocated into northern Mozambique and forged ties with local fighters.
The Kenyan government’s initial response to the Westgate attack, involving blanket arrests of Muslims and indiscriminate crackdowns aimed at ethnic Somalis, inflamed communities and made matters worse, Mutiga said.
The government later changed its approach and appointed local ethnic Somalis to lead security operations in the northeast near the Somali border.
That area, however, has seen growing attacks by Al-Shabab that have killed more than 100 police officers since May 2017.
“Kenyan security officials seem to have failed to contain that threat,” Mutiga said. Other major attacks since Westgate in the region, often targeting Christians, have included massacres of bus passengers and the assault on Garissa University in 2015 that left 147 people dead.
The pressure on Al-Shabab since Westgate has included training and counterterrorism equipment provided by Western countries including the US and Britain.
The attack also changed the way Kenyan institutions are protected. Shopping malls, office buildings, university campuses, government facilities and the main airport have invested substantial sums in additional security, including surveillance.
As Al-Shabab focuses its attacks largely on Christians in Kenya’s Muslim-majority border communities, it has managed to stall economic activity and education, said Kenya-based security analyst and former US Marine Andrew Franklin. Many children who drop out of school as teaching staff flee become targets for recruitment by the extremists.
Kenyans make up the majority of Al-Shabab’s foreign fighters.
While economic activity in the borderlands weakens and corruption grows, morale and effectiveness of security forces has eroded, Franklin said.
There is a “tremendous amount of complacency” among security agencies, he said, leading to the conclusion that senior officials have little interest in countering Al-Shabab’s insurgency.
For Andrew Munya, who was injured in the Westgate attack when shrapnel hit his left shoulder, Kenya will not be safe until Al-Shabab is dealt with for good.
“There is no difference whether a life is lost in the border areas or in the city,” said Munya, who later became a security consultant while vowing to never to let his community and family become victims. “All life is precious and must be protected.”
5 years after mall Kenya attack, Al-Shabab’s threat grows
5 years after mall Kenya attack, Al-Shabab’s threat grows
- Analysts say the Somalia-based extremist group has been pushed down Africa’s east coast as far as Mozambique
- The Al-Qaeda-linked extremist group has vowed retribution on Kenya for sending troops to Somalia since 2011
China says Philippine ‘provocations’ cause of South China Sea tensions
- ‘China will not allow the Philippines to do whatever it wants, and has responded in a reasonable and forceful manner’
- Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: ‘We will not be cowed into silence, submission, or subservience
BEIJING/MANILA: China on Thursday blamed Philippine actions for recent rising tension between the two sides in the hotly contested South China Sea.
“The provocations by the Philippine side are the direct cause of the recent heating up of the South China Sea issue,” a statement from the defense ministry read, adding: “China will not allow the Philippines to do whatever it wants, and has responded in a reasonable and forceful manner.”
The Philippines will implement countermeasures proportionate and reasonable against “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous attacks” by China’s coast guard and maritime militia in the South China Sea, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Thursday.
“We seek no conflict with any nation, more so nations that purport and claim to be our friends but we will not be cowed into silence, submission, or subservience,” Marcos said on Facebook.
He did not specify what the countermeasures would include.
The Philippines has been furious in the past year over what it calls repeated aggression by China’s coast guard and allied fishing vessels around disputed features located inside Manila’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone.
The latest flare-up occurred last week, when China used water cannon to disrupt another Philippine resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal for soldiers posted to guard a warship intentionally grounded on a reef 25 years ago.
China, which claims almost the entire South China Sea as its own, has accused the Philippines of encroaching on its territory and says it took necessary measures against the vessels.
China warned the Philippines on Monday to behave cautiously and seek dialogue, saying their relations were at a “crossroads” as confrontations between their coast guards over maritime claims worsened tensions.
Marcos said he met his defense and security officials and has been in communication with “friends in the international community.”
“They have offered to help us on what the Philippines requires to protect and secure our sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction while ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” Marcos said.
The deterioration in relations with China come at a time when Marcos seeks to deepen defense ties with the United States. He has increased US access to Philippine military bases and joint exercises have been expanded to include sea and air patrols over the South China Sea, vexing Beijing.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to a 1951 mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and criticized as “dangerous” China’s actions at the Second Thomas Shoal.
In a phone call on Wednesday with his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro, Austin “reaffirmed the ironclad US commitment to the Philippines” which it said was undertaking a lawful resupply mission.
The Philippine-US treaty binds both countries to defend each other if under attack and includes coast guard, civilian and military vessels in the South China Sea.
Russia strikes Ukraine’s Kharkiv with aerial bombs for the first time since 2022
The airstrikes caused widespread damage, hitting several residential buildings and damaging the city’s institute for emergency surgery.
Russia has escalated its attacks on Ukraine in recent days, launching several missile barrages on the capital Kyiv and hitting energy infrastructure across the country in apparent retaliation for recent Ukrainian aerial attacks on the Russian border region of Belgorod. Such sporadic attacks, however, have been common throughout the war.
The Kharkiv region cuts across the front line where Ukrainian and Russian forces have been locked in battles for over two years since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The region is frequently attacked with missiles and drones.
Sergey Bolvinov, head of the investigative police department in Kharkiv, said in a Telegram post that Wednesday’s attack marked the first time aerial bombs were used since 2022. Regional governor Oleh Syniehubov also reported the use of aerial bombs.
The recent escalation comes as exhausted Ukrainian troops struggle with a shortage of personnel and ammunition and face growing Russian pressure along the front line that stretches over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).
On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sacked one of his top security officials, replacing him with the head of Ukraine’s foreign spy agency in a new reshuffle.
Zelensky dismissed Oleksii Danilov, who served as secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, thanking him for his service in a video address late Tuesday. The president gave no reason and said, without providing details, that Danilov will be “reassigned to another area.”
Zelensky replaced him with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who served as head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
The National Security Council is a policy coordination body that is chaired by Zelensky. Danilov had held his position since October 2019, a few months after Zelensky took office.
The dismissal follows Zelensky’s decision in February to fire Ukraine’s chief military officer, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and replace him with Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi. Tensions between Zaluzhnyi and the president grew after Ukraine’s much-touted 2023 summer counteroffensive failed to reach its goals. This month, Zaluzhnyi was named Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom.
US-Israel rift heads for moment of truth over Rafah
- As Netanhayu refused to heed warnings against attacking Rafah, the US for the first time allowed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution to pass
- But critics say Biden's not using his key point of leverage — cutting US military assistance to Israel — shows his action is more of a PR stunt
WASHINGTON: The United States has taken a public distance from Israel as never before over the Gaza war but the decisive test will be Rafah and whether Israel heeds US warnings against an offensive in the packed city.
The United States on Monday abstained at the Security Council, allowing a resolution to pass for the first time that called for an immediate ceasefire, infuriating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who delayed a delegation to Washington to discuss US concerns on Rafah.
But in a stance surely noted by Netanyahu, President Joe Biden has made clear he will not use his key point of leverage — cutting US military assistance to Israel.
Annelle Sheline, who recently resigned in protest from the State Department, where she had been on a fellowship working on human rights, said the Biden administration may be shifting but that its actions so far — including the resolution and plans for an emergency pier to bring in aid — amounted to “PR stunts.”
“I can only hope that things are starting to change. Unfortunately, I don’t yet see the US actually using its leverage as far as ending or withdrawing support for Israeli military operations, turning off the tap of weapons,” she told AFP.
Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute who was a top White House aide on the Middle East under former president George W. Bush, said Biden was responding at the United Nations not just to domestic politics but to calls from US allies to compromise and not keep vetoing resolutions.
A resolution “is a signal, but it doesn’t in any tangible way impact Israel’s ability to prosecute the conflict,” Singh said, while arms restrictions would “come at a much higher cost” strategically and politically.
Israel has been waging a relentless military campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7 that was the deadliest in Israel in its history.
The United States has repeatedly warned Israel not to attack Rafah, the southern city where more than 1.4 million Palestinians have taken shelter, but Netanyahu last week vowed to press ahead after a direct appeal from visiting Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
US officials say they will present alternatives to the Israeli delegation on Rafah that will focus on striking Hamas targets while limiting civilian casualties.
Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that US officials’ presentation of alternatives “indicates to me that they believe some sort of military operations will occur and they’re trying to limit the damage of that operation.”
Singh said the holding pattern on Rafah hurt the United States and Israel as international pressure builds.
“I would say that probably there’s a desire in Washington for them to get on with whatever they’re going to do one way or the other — absolutely protect civilians from harm, but this kind of perpetual indecision, I think, is itself harmful,” Singh said.
James Ryan, executive director of the Middle East Research and Information Project, said: “You do own it a bit more if you give them plans and they don’t go well.”
US criticism has been mounting against Netanyahu with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a staunch backer of Israel and the highest-level elected American Jew, in a bombshell speech criticizing the conduct of the war and urging new elections.
A Gallup poll released Wednesday said only 36 percent of Americans approved of Israel’s actions, down from 50 percent in November.
Biden is a lifelong supporter of Israel who, facing a tough reelection fight in November, is feeling the wrath of the left in his Democratic Party on Gaza, where the United Nations is predicting famine.
Netanyahu, also battling for his political life at the helm of a far-right coalition, is a veteran fighter in Washington who has aligned himself with much of the Republican Party and clashed with three Democratic presidents.
“Both Biden and Netanyahu benefit from having some degree of friction between them,” Wertheim said.
“Possibly the one thing that could save Netanyahu's government once a new election occurs is for Netanyahu to be able to say to the public, I’m the one figure who was able to stand up to the Americans and also preserve America’s support for us,” he said.
Biden, in turn, is eager to show he is pushing back against Israeli “brutality” without imposing costs by restricting weapons.
“What we’re seeing is a lot of theater that serves the political interests of the leaders,” Wertheim said.
Indonesia’s top court hears appeals from losing presidential candidates who want a revote
- Dozens of protesters held a peaceful but noisy rally near the court building, declaring that they would oversee the trial
JAKARTA, Indonesia: Indonesia’s top court heard appeals lodged by two losing presidential candidates who are demanding a revote, alleging widespread irregularities and fraud at the polls in appearances before the judges Wednesday.
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto won the election with an overwhelming margin: 58.6 percent, or more than 96 million votes, according to the General Election Commission — more than twice the runner-up’s share in the three-way race.
But the losing candidates — Former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan and former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo — argue that the election was marred by irregularities throughout the campaign. They’re asking the Constitutional Court to annul the election results and order a revote, in separate lawsuits.
Both candidates presented parts of their cases in person, focusing on allegations that the court itself, as well as outgoing President Joko Widodo, bent laws and norms to support Subianto.
“We witness with deep concern a series of irregularities that have tarnished the integrity of our democracy,” Baswedan told the court.
Dozens of protesters held a peaceful but noisy rally near the court building, declaring that they would oversee the trial. Authorities blocked streets leading to the court where about 400 police were deployed in and around the building.
Indonesian presidents are expected to stay neutral in races to succeed them, but Subianto, a longtime former rival of Widodo who twice lost elections to him before joining his government, ran as his successor. He even chose Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as running mate, even though Raka did not meet a constitutional requirement that candidates be at least 40 years old.
Baswedan and Pranowo argue that Raka should have been disqualified, and are asking the court to bar him from a revote. Before the election, the Constitutional Court made a controversial exception to the minimum age that allowed him to run, under the leadership of then-chief justice Anwar Usman, who is Widodo’s brother in law. Usman was later forced to resign as chief justice for failing to recuse himself.
“The Constitutional Court was designed to guard the constitution and stem arbitrariness, not to legitimize fraud and crime,” said Todung Mulya Lubis, a prominent lawyer who led Pranowo’s legal team, “This election is an opportunity for the Constitutional Court to reclaim its authority and dignity.”
Baswedan also said that regional officials were pressured or given rewards to influence political choices, and that state social assistance was used as “a transactional tool to help one of the candidates.”
Hefty social aid from the government was disbursed in the middle of the campaign — far more than the amounts spent during the COVID-19 pandemic — and Widodo distributed funds in person in a number of provinces.
“If we do not make corrections, the practices that occurred recently will be considered normal and become habits, then become culture, and ultimately become national character,” Baswedan said before the eight-judge panel.
Subianto himself twice went to the top court to challenge the results of elections he lost to Widodo, but the court rejected his claims as groundless both times. Subianto refused to accept the results of the 2019 presidential election, leading to violence that left seven dead in Jakarta.
Baswedan had the first turn before the court in the morning, while Pranowo spoke in the afternoon.
“What shocked us all, what really destroyed morale, was the abuse of power,” Pranowo told the court, “When the government uses all state resources to support certain candidates, when the security forces are used to defend personal political interests, then it is time for us to take a firm stand to reject all forms of intimidation and oppression.”
Chief Justice Suhartoyo, who like many Indonesians uses a single name, adjourned the hearing until Thursday, when Subianto and the General Election Commission will respond. The verdict, expected on April 22, cannot be appealed.
The case will be decided by eight justices instead of the full nine-member court because Usman, who is still on the court as an associate justice, is required to recuse himself.
US seeks constructive talks with China on the adverse impact of flooding markets with cheap goods
- Treasury Secretary Yellen says China’s overproduction of solar panels, EVs and lithium-ion batteries distort global markets and hurting jobs in other industrial and developing economies
NORCROSS, Georgia/WASHINGTON: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday she intends to warn China about the negative effects of Beijing’s subsidies for its clean energy industries, including solar panels and electric vehicles, during a visit to the country.
“I intend to talk to the Chinese when I visit about overcapacity in some of these industries, and make sure that they understand the undesirable impact that this is having — flooding the market with cheap goods — on the United States but also in many of our closest allies,” Yellen told MSNBC in a live interview.
Yellen traveled to the state of Georgia to visit a Suniva solar cell manufacturing plant that closed in 2017 due to competition from cheaper, subsidized solar panels from China.
The plant is now reopening because of anticipated demand fueled by tax credits for US-made clean energy technology in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Earlier on Wednesday, Suniva and Canada’s Heliene announced a three-year, $400 million deal to join forces to cooperate on the production of fully US-made complete solar panels that can be installed into solar power projects. A steady supply of US-produced panels will enable solar project developers to claim a 10 percent bonus credit on top of the 30 percent tax credit on the cost of renewable energy facilities.
Yellen said in remarks at the factory that she will raise concerns China is now overproducing solar panels, EVs and lithium-ion batteries in the same way that it built too much capacity to make steel and aluminum, distorting global markets and hurting jobs in other industrial and developing economies.
Politico has reported that Yellen will travel to China in April. The Treasury Department has declined to confirm her travel plans.
“I will convey my belief that excess capacity poses risks not only to American workers and firms and to the global economy, but also productivity and growth in the Chinese economy, as China itself acknowledged in its National People’s Congress this month,” Yellen said. “And I will press my Chinese counterparts to take necessary steps to address this issue.”
China’s excess capacity is an increasing source of concern to Biden administration officials as its exports surge in the face of weak demand at home, while Chinese policymakers are pledging more support for strategically important sectors.
At the same time, the US is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars of tax incentives into clean energy to attract investments that can build viable EV and alternative power sectors that do not depend on China for crucial components such as batteries.
Yellen highlighted the Suniva plant as an example of how the Biden administration’s economic agenda is “lowering energy costs for American consumes and powering growth in strategic industries.”
Yellen told reporters the US has been advocating a rebalancing of China’s economy toward more consumer spending, but added that she was not prepared to discuss potential retaliation from the US and its allies against China’s policies.
“We see, of course, the same concerns in Europe, for example, but I don’t want to get into retaliation,” Yellen said. “We want to see what we can do that’s constructive.”