Stronger oil price to slash Saudi budget deficit says brokerage

Stronger oil prices are helping to reduce the Saudi budget deficit. (Courtesy of Aramco)
Updated 01 August 2018
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Stronger oil price to slash Saudi budget deficit says brokerage

  • Oil revenues could top $35.7 billion in second-quarter
  • But economic headwinds remain

LONDON: Stronger oil prices could cut the Saudi budget deficit by as much as 28 percent this year according to a report from a top brokerage.

Al-Rajhi Capital expects oil revenues to reach SR134 billion ($35.7 billion) in the second quarter and some SR547.5 billion for the full year.

Oil traded down below $74 yesterday amid concerns that a trade row between the US and China could dampen global demand for oil.

“Overall, we continue to believe that higher oil output amid firm oil prices, along with improving non-oil sector will ensure a sustainable economic recovery in 2018,” said Al-Rajhi in a repor

Last month the IMF increased its growth forecast for the Kingdom to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent because of a stronger oil price.

But while foreign reserves are also inching up, the economy faces other headwinds with credit to the private sector weakening in June.

Real estate prices also fell by about 1.5 percent in the second-quarter compared to a year earlier.

To help spur investment in much need infrastructure, the Saudi authorities have drafted legislation on public-private partnerships which could support a rebound in the construction sector which remains under pressure.


Oman’s non-oil exports rise 7.5% as diversification gains traction 

Updated 7 sec ago
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Oman’s non-oil exports rise 7.5% as diversification gains traction 

RIYADH: Oman’s non-oil exports rose 7.5 percent to 6.7 billion Omani rials ($17.4 billion) in 2025, highlighting diversification gains even as lower crude prices dragged overall export earnings lower. 

Data from the National Centre for Statistics and Information showed re-export activity grew faster, increasing 20.3 percent year on year to 2.05 billion rials, supported by stronger trade flows through the Sultanate’s ports and logistics hubs. 

The expansion reflects government efforts to boost industrial output and develop export-oriented sectors as Oman works to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons under its economic diversification strategy. 

The improvement in non-oil trade follows Fitch Ratings’ decision in December to upgrade Oman to investment-grade status, raising its long-term foreign-currency rating to BBB- from BB+. The agency cited stronger public finances, an improved external position, and continued fiscal discipline, noting government debt had declined to around 36 percent of gross domestic product in 2025 from about 68 percent in 2020. 

“The Sultanate of Oman has made notable advancements in diversifying its exports and enhancing its economy sustainably, particularly through non-oil sectors,” said Raymond Khoury, partner and public sector lead at Arthur D. Little Middle East.  

He added: “To build on this progress, it is crucial to increase investments in modern technologies like artificial intelligence, especially by establishing advanced data centers to support digital sovereignty and integrating AI into manufacturing and agriculture to boost productivity and further diversify the export portfolio.” 

The newly released data further showed that products from chemical and related industries, metal products, plastics, as well as machinery and electrical equipment were among the most prominent Omani non-oil exports last year. 

The figures also indicated a decline in the value of oil and gas exports, which fell to 14.5 billion rials, marking a 15.2 percent year-on-year decrease. 

Oil exports were affected by a drop in the average price of Omani crude to $71 per barrel last year, compared with $80.8 per barrel in 2024. 

Total oil exports last year reached 307.9 million barrels, compared with 308.4 million barrels in 2024, while average daily oil production increased from 992,600 barrels per day in 2024 to more than one million barrels per day in 2025. 

The data also showed that the value of Oman’s merchandise exports reached 23.2 billion rials last year, reflecting a 7.1 percent decline from 2024, mainly due to lower oil export revenues. Merchandise imports, meanwhile, rose by 2.7 percent during the same period to exceed 17.1 billion rials in 2025. 

Statistics further indicated that Oman’s total merchandise trade stood at 40.4 billion rials in 2025, compared with 41.7 billion rials in 2024, reflecting the decline in oil export values. 

Regarding trading partners for non-oil exports, the UAE topped the list with more than 1.31 billion rials in 2025, up 25.3 percent year on year. 

The value of Omani non-oil exports to Saudi Arabia rose from 849 million rials to 1.07 billion rials during the same period, while exports to India increased by 6 percent to approximately 700 million rials. Meanwhile, non-oil exports to South Korea and the US declined by 26.1 percent and 13.3 percent, respectively. 

The UAE also ranked as Oman’s largest partner in re-export activities last year, accounting for 35.2 percent of total re-export trade, which amounted to 2.05 billion rials. The value of goods re-exported to the UAE reached 724 million rials, marking annual growth of 27.2 percent. 

Iran ranked second with 365 million rials, registering a modest increase of 1.6 percent compared with the previous year. The UK came third with 207 million rials, followed by Saudi Arabia in fourth place with 191 million rials and India in fifth with 84 million rials. 

Merchandise imports from the UAE increased by 5.4 percent during the year, exceeding 4.1 billion rials. 

Imports from China rose by 5.7 percent to 1.93 billion rials, while imports from India declined by 3.8 percent to 1.44 billion rials. Imports from Kuwait fell from 1.69 billion rials to 1.31 billion rials, while imports from Saudi Arabia declined from 1.28 billion rials to 1.21 billion rials.