PML-N strong in Punjab while challenger PTI enjoys slim 4% lead at national level — survey

ISLAMABAD: The latest survey conducted by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) – an Islamabad-based think-tank – and Herald magazine paints a thrilling picture just two days before the general elections.
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the country’s outgoing ruling party, is leading with seven percentage points over challenger Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in Punjab province.
The SDPI-Herald survey shows 40 percent of the respondents in Punjab intend to vote for the PML-N, 33 percent for the PTI and 7 percent for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).
The survey’s results were released on Saturday and it claims an error margin of +- 1.3 percentage points.
This poll, however, shows that PTI enjoys a slim lead of 4 percent at the national level over the PML-N. A total of 29 percent of respondents to the survey voted for the PTI, 25 percent for PML-N, 20 percent for the PPP and only 3 percent for Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) — an alliance of religious parties — at national level.
Furthermore, around 13 percent of the respondents at the national level remain undecided and could play a crucial role in the victory or defeat of any party on the polling day, the poll suggests.
Punjab remains the main battleground for political parties to win maximum seats in the National Assembly to form a federal government. Punjab has 141 seats in the 272-seat assembly, Sindh has 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39, Balochistan 16, the erstwhile tribal areas 12, and Islamabad has three seats in the Lower House of the Parliament.
The survey shows that all three major political parties — the PML-N, PTI and PPP — are still strong in the provinces where they formed provincial governments in the wake of the 2013 general elections.
In Sindh province, the PPP is leading the electoral race with 54 percent, followed by the PTI with 14 percent, the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) with 10 percent and the PML-N with 4 percent.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the PTI is ahead with 43 percent, followed by the PPP with 12 percent, the MMA with 11 percent and the PML-N with 10 percent.
The PPP is leading the electoral race in Balochistan province with 15 percent, followed by the PTI and the PML-N with 11 percent and the MMA with 8 percent, according to the survey.
The findings of this SDPI-Herald survey are consistent with the polls conducted by Gallup-Pakistan and Pulse Consultants in May 2018. In Punjab 40 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the PML-N, 26 percent for the PTI and 6 percent for the PPP, according to Gallup-Pakistan.
A poll by the Institute for Public Opinion Research in May focused exclusively on Punjab, and showed the PML-N leading in the province with 51 percent, followed by the PTI with 30 percent and the PPP with 5 percent.
Prof. Tahir Malik, a political analyst and academic, said the results of the polls come as no surprise to most Pakistanis as they already know that the PML-N is still strong in Punjab, but is less likely to win any considerable number of seats from other provinces, unlike the PTI and PPP.
However, he said that undecided voters as per the poll may change results on the polling day and apparently both parties are trying their best to get their support.
“PTI has made inroads in the province during the past five years, but still the party isn’t in a position to win maximum seats from Punjab alone to form a federal government,” he told Arab News.
“Apparently no political party seems to be getting a simple majority in the elections and ultimately a coalition government will be formed,” he said.
Malik said that politics is a day-to-day affair and nothing can be said with certainty at this stage. “A lot of factors play their part in elections in Pakistan, so let’s see how things develop until July 25,” he added.