VIENNA: Global oil demand is set to stay strong in the second half of 2018, an OPEC technical panel forecast this week, suggesting the market could absorb extra production from the group.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Friday to decide output policy amid calls from major consumers such as the United States and China to cool down oil prices and support the global economy by producing more crude.
OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, and non-member Russia have proposed gradually relaxing production cuts — in place since the start of 2017 — while OPEC members Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Algeria have opposed such a move.
Three OPEC sources told Reuters a technical panel — the organization’s economic commission — met on Monday to review the market outlook and present it to member countries’ oil ministers later in the week.
“If OPEC and its allies continue to produce at May levels then the market could be in deficit for the next six months,” one of the sources said.
Another source said: “The market outlook in the second half is strong.” Some countries including Algeria, Iran and Venezuela said at the panel meeting that they still opposed an output increase, one of the sources said.
Russia and Saudi Arabia have proposed that OPEC and non-OPEC countries increase production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Ecuador’s oil minister Carlos Perez said on Monday.
The move would effectively wipe out existing production cuts of 1.8 million bpd, which have helped rebalance the market in the past 18 months and lifted oil prices to nearly $80 per barrel from as low as $27 in 2016.
“There are other countries that do not want to reduce the cuts ... It’s going to be a difficult ... a tough meeting,” Perez said upon arriving in Vienna, where the 14-member OPEC is based.
OPEC’s second- and third-largest producers, Iraq and Iran, have said they would oppose output increases on the grounds that such moves would breach previous agreements to maintain cuts until the year-end.
Both countries would struggle to increase output. Iran faces renewed US sanctions that will impact its oil industry and Iraq has production constraints.
Two OPEC sources told Reuters that even Saudi Arabia’s Gulf allies Kuwait and Oman were against big, immediate increases in output.
One OPEC source said the Saudi proposal of a 1.5-million-bpd increase was “just a tactic” aimed at persuading fellow members to compromise on a smaller rise of around 0.5-0.7 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have the capacity to raise output. Russia has also said that limiting supply for too long could encourage unacceptably high output growth from the United States, which is not part of the production agreement.
On Tuesday, the head of Russia’s second-largest oil firm Lukoil, Vagit Alekperov, said global production cuts should be halved and that Lukoil could restore its oil output levels within two to three months.
Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch said that given big differences in the positions of OPEC members, the Friday meeting was likely to be tough.
“Unanimity is needed for any OPEC decision. This recalls the June 2011 meeting, when OPEC was unable to agree on an increase in production to compensate for the outages ... in Libya,” Fritsch said.
“That meeting ended without any joint declaration. The then Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi described it as the worst OPEC meeting of all time.”
Adding to the tensions, Iran and Venezuela continued to insist that OPEC on Friday debate US sanctions against the two countries, but the organization’s secretariat has rejected their requests, according to letters seen by Reuters.
Global oil demand strong enough to absorb additional OPEC output
Global oil demand strong enough to absorb additional OPEC output
- Russia and Saudi Arabia have proposed that OPEC and non-OPEC countries increase production by 1.5 million barrels per day
- Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have the capacity to raise output
Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait to lead GCC property growth in H1: Markaz
RIYADH: Gulf real estate markets are expected to extend their growth into the first half of 2026, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait leading activity, a new analysis showed.
The report by Kuwait Financial Center, also known as Markaz, said sustained momentum across the Gulf Cooperation Council will be driven by steady economic growth, improving liquidity and a more accommodative interest rate environment.
Developing a robust real estate landscape remains central to GCC governments’ diversification strategies as they seek to reduce reliance on crude revenues.
In Saudi Arabia, the Real Estate General Authority expects the Kingdom’s property market to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, with an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 8 percent from 2024.
Setting out its forecast for six months to the end of June, the report said: “Markaz expects the GCC real estate market to remain in an accelerating phase in the first half of this year.”
It added: “Higher oil production, growth in the non-oil economy, continued government spending on infrastructure and development projects, along with policy rate cuts, are expected to improve liquidity and credit growth.
“These factors support borrowing and investment activity across residential, commercial, and industrial real estate segments.”
Markaz said the sector will remain a key contributor to regional economic development, offering attractive opportunities for investors across segments.
Saudi Arabia outlook
Saudi Arabia’s real estate market remains in an accelerating phase and is expected to sustain momentum in the first half of 2026, signaling stable conditions with room for further gains.
The report said the Kingdom’s sector showed strong performance in the second half of 2025, driven by residential activity and tight office market conditions.
Residential transactions increased 17.9 percent quarter on quarter in the third period of 2025, with Riyadh and Jeddah leading price gains, while developers accelerated supply through giga-projects and premium residential developments.
The office sector remained highly constrained, with vacancy in Riyadh near zero at 0.5 percent, supporting prime rent growth of 7.3 percent year on year.
Demand was underpinned by the Kingdom’s Regional Headquarters Program and expanding activity in the healthcare and technology sectors.
In October, Saudi Arabia’s investment minister Khalid Al-Falih said the number of companies relocating their regional headquarters to Riyadh had exceeded 780, underscoring the Kingdom’s growing appeal as a global business hub.
The regional HQ program offers a 30-year corporate tax exemption, withholding tax relief and regulatory support, reflecting efforts to attract multinational corporations to the capital.
Some firms that have established regional bases in Riyadh include Northern Trust, IHG Hotels & Resorts, PwC and Deloitte.
Highlighting future prospects, Markaz said: “While the fiscal deficit widened to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2025 and is expected to remain at similar levels in 2026, increased capital expenditure under Vision 2030 is anticipated to support construction activity, sustaining demand across commercial and residential segments.”
It added: “Population growth continues to underpin housing demand, with Saudi Arabia’s population reaching 35.3 million by mid-2024, up 4.7 percent year-on-year, with non-Saudis accounting for 44.4 percent of the total.”
UAE momentum
The UAE’s real estate market recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.
In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year.
The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.
“Although Dubai’s annual sales values have consistently outperformed the previous year over the past three years, concerns regarding sustainability have emerged. Markaz notes that the current growth cycle is supported by strong fundamentals, reducing the likelihood of a sharp correction,” said Markaz.
It added: “However, a period of moderation or cooling is expected over the medium term. Nonetheless, Markaz forecasts that the UAE real estate market could peak in the first half of 2026, marked by steady growth in prices and rental rates in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi.”
Earlier this month, the UAE state news agency WAM reported that Dubai’s real estate sector grew 6.7 percent during the first nine months of 2025, with its contribution to the emirate’s GDP reaching 8.2 percent.
Kuwait stability
Kuwait’s real estate market is expected to remain stable in the first half of 2026, with prospects for rising land prices and rental rates.
In the first nine months of 2025, the property market maintained a stable growth trajectory, supported by higher land prices and rental rates across investment and commercial segments.
Real estate transaction activity strengthened during the first three quarters of 2025, with total sales rising 26.9 percent year-on-year to 3.04 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($9.92 billion), driven by growth across all segments.
Land prices increased on an annual basis across governorates, while rental rates in the investment segment recorded steady gains.
Investment segment sales increased 60 percent year on year, while residential and commercial sales rose 8 percent and 17.4 percent, respectively.
Transaction volumes grew 27.8 percent to 4,247, supported by increased activity across residential, investment and commercial properties.
The report added that Kuwait’s real GDP is projected to grow 3.9 percent in 2026, driven by higher oil production, improved non-oil activity, stronger project awards and anticipated interest rate reductions — factors expected to support demand for commercial and industrial real estate.
