ANKARA: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday faces the biggest ballot box challenge of his 15-year grip on Turkey, seeking to overcome a revitalized opposition against the background of an increasingly troubled economy.
A self-styled heavyweight champion of campaigning, Erdogan has won successive elections since his Islamic-rooted ruling party came to power in 2002, transforming Turkey with growth-orientated economic policies, religious conservatism and an assertive stance abroad.
But he appears to have met some kind of match in his main presidential rival Muharrem Ince, a fiery orator from the left of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who has been unafraid to challenge Erdogan on his own terms.
The intrigue is deepened by the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections on the same day under controversial constitutional changes spearheaded by Erdogan which will hand the new Turkish president enhanced powers and scrap the office of prime minister.
The vote takes place almost two years after the failed coup aimed at ousting Erdogan from power, a watershed in its modern history which prompted Turkey to launch the biggest purge of recent times under a state of emergency that remains in place.
Some 55,000 people have been arrested in a crackdown whose magnitude has sparked major tensions with Ankara’s Western allies.
Only a knockout first round victory for Erdogan and a strong parliamentary majority for his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will be seen as an unequivocal victory for the Turkish leader.
And many analysts believe Ince can force a second round on July 8, while AKP risks losing its parliamentary majority in the face of an unprecedented alliance between four opposition parties.
“This is not the classical opposition that he has been facing for 15 years and which he more or less succeeded in managing and marginalizing,” said Elize Massicard of the French National Center for Scientific Research.
“It’s a new political dynamic that has grown in magnitude,” she said.
The opposition was already boosted by the relatively narrow victory of the “Yes” campaign in the April 2017 referendum on the constitutional changes.
Most opinion polls — to be treated with caution in Turkey — suggest Erdogan will fall short of 50 percent in the first round.
Erdogan remains by far Turkey’s most popular politician and inspires sometimes near-fanatical support in the Anatolian interior, where he is credited with transforming lives through greater economic prosperity.
“A great Turkey needs a strong leader,” says the slogan on election posters of Erdogan plastered across Turkey.
But the elections come at a time when Turkey is undergoing one of its rockiest recent economic patches despite high growth, with inflation surging to 12.15 percent and the lira losing 20 percent against the dollar this year.
Erdogan brought the elections forward from November 2019 in what many analysts saw as a bid to have them over with before the economy nosedived.
The opposition has sought to play on signs of Erdogan fatigue and also echoed Western concerns that freedom of expression has declined drastically under his rule.
For the first time, Erdogan has been forced to react in the election campaign as the opposition set the pace.
He had to deny quickly when Ince accused him of meeting the alleged architect of the 2016 failed coup, Fethullah Gulen. Erdogan promised to lift Turkey’s two-year state of emergency only after the CHP had vowed the same.
“The opposition is able to frame the debate in the election and this is a new thing for Turkish politics,” Asli Aydintasbas, fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said.
“A party that has been in power for so long is, in an economic downturn, going to experience a loss (in support) and lose its hegemony over politics,” she added.
While the CHP sees itself as the guardian of a secular and united Turkey, Ince has also sought to win the support of Turkey’s Kurdish minority who make up around a fifth of the electorate.
A rally held by Ince in the Kurdish stronghold of Diyarbakir in the southeast attracted considerable attention. “A president for everyone,” reads his election slogan, over a picture of the affably smiling former physics teacher.
The opposition, which argues that Erdogan has been given a wildly disproportionate amount of media airtime in the campaign, has sometimes resorted to creative and even humorous campaign methods.
The Iyi (Good) Party of Meral Aksener, once seen as a major player but lately eclipsed by Ince, put out humorous messages on Google ads and even devised a computer game where light bulbs — the AKP symbol — get destroyed.
Selahattin Demirtas, the candidate of the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), has campaigned from his prison cell following his jailing in November 2016. He made an election speech on speaker phone through his wife’s mobile but was allowed give a brief election broadcast on state TV, albeit from prison.
Erdogan faces biggest challenge in tight Turkey polls
Erdogan faces biggest challenge in tight Turkey polls
Iran launches missiles at Israel as attacks in Middle East commence for a sixth day
- IRGC: Strikes against Iran would result in “the complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure”
- Drones and missiles intercepted in different countries, including Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, after IRGC warning
DUBAI: Iran launched missiles at Israel early Thursday as aerial attacks in the Middle East commenced for a sixth day after an American submarine sank an Iranian warship and Iran threatened the destruction of military and economic infrastructure across the region.
Israel announced the incoming attack shortly after its military said it had begun new strikes in Lebanon targeting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
The fighting continued after the US and Israel intensified their bombardment Wednesday of Iran’s security forces and other symbols of power.
The tempo of the strikes on Iran was so intense that state television announced the mourning ceremony for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the conflict, would be postponed. Millions attended the funeral of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989.
The US and Israel launched the war Saturday, targeting Iran’s leadership, missile arsenal and nuclear program while suggesting that toppling the government is a goal. But the exact aims and timelines have repeatedly shifted, signaling an open-ended conflict.
President Donald Trump praised the US military Wednesday for “doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly.” Fellow Republicans in the US Senate stood with Trump on Iran as they voted down a resolution seeking to halt the war.
Iran fired on Bahrain, Kuwait and Israel as the conflict spiraled. Turkiye said NATO defenses intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran before it entered Turkiye’s airspace.
The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Iran, more than 70 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. It has disrupted the supply of the world’s oil and gas, snarled international shipping and stranded hundreds of thousands of travelers in the Middle East.
Buildings of Iranian military and security forces targeted
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a torpedo from an American submarine sank an Iranian warship Tuesday night in the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lankan authorities said 32 people were rescued from the ship, while the country’s navy said it recovered 87 bodies.
Israel said it hit buildings associated with Iran’s Basij, the all-volunteer force of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard whose bloody crackdown on protesters in January left thousands dead.
The Israeli military hit buildings associated with Iran’s internal security command. Israel and the US have said they want to see Iranians overthrow the country’s theocracy, and strikes against Iran’s internal security forces may be aimed at hastening that.
However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said his country’s forces have decentralized leadership, with units acting largely on their own, which could blunt the effect of attacks on top command and control hubs.
Iranian state television showed the ruins of buildings in Tehran and interviews with people saying the attacks damaged their homes. Strikes were also reported in the city of Qom targeting a building associated with a clerical panel set to pick Iran’s next supreme leader. Iranian media said it was empty at the time.
Shifting timelines for US operations
During his Pentagon briefing, Hegseth did not give a definitive timeline for US operations.
“You can say four weeks, but it could be six. It could be eight. It could be three,” he said. “Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo. The enemy is off balance, and we’re going to keep them off balance.”
Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, said American forces have damaged Iran’s air defenses and taken out ballistic missiles, launchers and drones.
US and Israeli military officials say launches from Iran have declined as the war has progressed. Israel’s Homefront Command announced it was easing restrictions that closed workplaces nationwide. It said workplaces could reopen Thursday if there’s a shelter nearby. Schools would remain closed.
Still, explosions sounded early Thursday in Israel, which said its defensive systems were moving to intercept Iranian missiles.
At least 1,045 people have been killed in Iran, the country’s Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs said Wednesday. Eleven people have died in Israel. Six US troops have been killed.
The death toll has exceeded 70 in Lebanon, where the health ministry said Wednesday that three people died when drone strikes hit two vehicles on a Beirut highway. The Israeli military said it was targeting a Hezbollah member.
Israel says its offensive had been planned for midyear
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the offensive against Iran was originally planned for mid-2026, but “the need arose to bring everything forward to February.”
He listed events inside Iran, Trump’s positions and the possibility of “creating a combined operation” as reasons.
The protests in Iran put unprecedented pressure on its leadership. Trump threatened military action in response to the crackdown before shifting his attention to Iran’s disputed nuclear program.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that the US launched its operation partly out of concern Iran might strike American personnel and assets in the region first. A phone call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the airstrikes began was also “important with respect to the timeline,” she said.
Energy supplies in the crosshairs
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard issued its most-intense threat yet, saying the strikes against it would result in “the complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure.”
A Maltese-flagged container ship was attacked Wednesday while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf through which about a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped. The ship was hit by two missiles, sparking a fire, according to Malta’s transport minister, Chris Bonett. Its 24 crew members were rescued.
Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by around 90 percent compared to prewar levels, shipping tracker MarineTraffic.com said Wednesday.
Oil prices have soared as Iranian attacks have disrupted traffic through the strait, and global stock markets have been hammered over worries that the spike in oil prices may grind down the world economy.
Iran’s clerics are choosing a new supreme leader
Iran’s leaders are scrambling to replace Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years. It’s only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen.
Potential candidates range from hard-liners committed to confrontation with the West to reformists who seek diplomatic engagement. Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son, has long been considered among them — though he has never been elected or appointed to a government position.
In a sign that Iran’s leadership will only seek to consolidate its power as it faces its biggest crisis in decades, the head of the judiciary warned that “those who cooperate with the enemy in any way will be considered an enemy.”
Israel’s defense minister, Katz, said on X that Iran’s next supreme leader — if he continues to threaten Israel, the US and others — “will be a target for elimination.”
