SINGAPORE: Oil markets were stable on Tuesday amid cautious optimism over the outcome of a summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.
Movements in crude markets were also limited ahead of a meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some of its allies on June 22 that may determine the crude production policy of several major producers.
Brent crude futures were trading at $76.45 per barrel at 0355 GMT, little changed from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $66.16 a barrel, up 6 cents from their last settlement.
Crude has been supported by healthy demand and voluntary production cuts led by OPEC, but analysts said oil markets were also currently heavily driven by public policy events and statements.
Trump and Kim on Tuesday met for a one-day summit in Singapore with the goal to narrow differences over how to end a nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula, with Trump stating he had forged a “good relationship” with the North Korean leader.
“And today marks the potentially momentous meeting between Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore,” said Shannon Rivkin, investment director at Australia’s Rivkin Securities.
Global markets edged up as the highly anticipated summit got underway amid expressions of goodwill.
“Any positive outcome could be good news for markets,” Rivkin added.
Oil market fundamentals, however, point to lower prices, with output from the three biggest producers, Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia on the rise.
Russian production has reportedly climbed from below 11 million barrels per day (bpd) to 11.1 million bpd in early June.
In the United States, output has risen by almost a third in the last two years, to a record of 10.8 million bpd.
“The deluge of US crude production continues to hold the top-side in check,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading at futures brokerage OANDA.
Now, top exporter Saudi Arabia — which has so far led OPEC’s efforts to withhold supplies — is also showing signs of raising production.
Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that it increased oil output to a little more than 10 million bpd in May, up from 9.9 million bpd in April.
“This fits with the theory that the Saudis and Russians are subtly moving toward a change to the agreement at this month’s meeting,” said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.
OPEC, together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia, started withholding output in 2017 to end a global supply overhang and prop up prices.
OPEC and its partners are due to meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, to discuss policy.
“Expect more of the same whippy markets driven by rumors and innuendo ahead of the June 22 Vienna OPEC meeting,” Innes said.
Oil stable amid cautious optimism over Trump, Kim summit in Singapore
Oil stable amid cautious optimism over Trump, Kim summit in Singapore
US allows countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for 30 days
- US issues 30-day license for stranded Russian oil purchases
- Measure the latest by Trump administration to calm energy markets jolted by Iran war
The United States issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said was a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by the Iran war.
The announcement comes a day after the US Energy Department said that the US would be releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve in an effort to curb sky-rocketing oil prices in the wake of the war in Iran. That release was part of a broader commitment by the 32-nation International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of oil. The agency said earlier on Thursday that he war in the Middle East was creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Bessent, in a statement on X released hours after benchmark oil prices shot above $100 a barrel, said the measure was “narrowly tailored” and “short-term” and would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.
“The temporary increase in oil prices is a short-term and temporary disruption that will result in a massive benefit to our nation and economy in the long-term,” Bessent said in the statement, echoing President Donald Trump.
Thursday’s license, which authorizes the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12, will remain valid through midnight Washington time on April 11, according to the text of the license posted on the Treasury Department’s website. The US Treasury previously issued a 30-day waiver on March 5 specifically for India, allowing New Delhi to buy Russian oil stuck at sea. Among other measures to tame energy prices, Trump has already ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf and said the US Navy could escort ships in the region. In another attempt to control prices, the Trump administration is considering temporarily waiving a shipping rule known as the Jones Act to ensure energy and agricultural products can move freely between US ports, the White House said. Waiving the rule would allow foreign ships to carry fuel between US ports, potentially lowering costs and speeding deliveries.
“The president is taking every action he can to lower prices ... unsanctioned oil that’s at sea to get that into the market, continuing to push our own producers to drill and expand production as fast and as far as they can, providing regulatory relief, and you’re going to see more and more in the days to come,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller told Fox News’ “Primetime” program on Thursday.
There were about 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil on water across 30 different locations globally as of Thursday, Fox News reported, adding that the US license would provide around five to six days of supply when taking into account the daily loss of oil from the Strait. Trump said earlier on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices driven higher by the war, prompting criticism from some lawmakers who accused him of caring only about rich people.
US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent response by Tehran have widened regional tensions and paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting vital Middle East oil and gas flows and sending energy prices higher.
Raising the stakes for the global economy, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it will block oil shipments from the Gulf unless the US and Israeli attacks cease.
