DUBAI: The Saudi economy pulled out of recession in the first quarter of 2018 thanks to oil price rises, a think-tank said Tuesday.
Capital Economics said the oil-dependent Saudi economy grew by 1.5 percent in the first quarter, after having contracted by 0.7 percent in 2017.
“The oil sector was the main driver of the recovery,” the London-based group said.
Oil prices surged to around $80 a barrel last month from under $30 a barrel in early 2016 after OPEC and non-OPEC producers struck a deal to cut output.
As a result of the crash in prices, the economy dipped into negative territory last year for the first time since 2009, a year after the global financial crisis.
The OPEC kingpin has posted a budget deficit in the past four years, and it has borrowed from domestic and international markets and hiked fuel and power prices to finance the shortfall.
It also introduced a five-percent value-added tax from the start of 2018.
The world’s top crude exporter has seen a key boost in its revenues after the recovery in oil prices.
Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment said Monday that Saudi fiscal reserves rose by $13.2 billion in April, marking its largest monthly increase since October 2013.
The reserves stood at $506.6 billion in April, down from $732 billion at the end of 2014.
Since 2014, Saudi budget deficits have totalled $260 billion and the government is projecting a 2018 shortfall of $52 billion.
Saudi economy returns to growth on back of oil price rises
Saudi economy returns to growth on back of oil price rises
- The world’s top crude exporter has seen a key boost in its revenues after the recovery in oil prices
- Oil prices surged to around $80 a barrel last month from under $30 a barrel in early 2016
Global Markets: Asian stocks fall as Iran war keeps oil at $100, upends rate outlook
- Asian stocks set for consecutive weeks in the red
- Traders rapidly cut Fed rate cut wagers for the year
- Investors focus on oil prices, inflation risks
SINGAPORE: Asian stocks slumped on Friday, poised for a second straight weekly decline as fast-dwindling hopes of a resolution to the US and Israel’s war with Iran kept oil prices aloft, casting a shadow over global markets and spurring inflation fears.
The US dollar has become the safe-haven of choice during the tumult, putting most other currencies under pressure. The dollar was set for a second consecutive week of gains and is up 2 percent since the war broke out at the end of February.
The yen hit its weakest level since July 2024 at 159.69 per US dollar on Friday as Japan warned that it was ready to take action to protect against yen declines. It was last at 159.41.
Analysts said the bar for intervention is higher this time around as any intervention now could prove futile in the face of the relentless dollar buying.
In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares slipped 1 percent, on course for a 2.2 percent decline for the week. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4 percent, while tech-heavy South Korean stocks slid nearly 2 percent.
European futures point to a slightly higher open but may struggle to hold those gains on weak sentiment.
Oil prices remained close to $100 per barrel level, although they eased a bit on Friday after US issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea.
Brent futures were at $100.70 a barrel at 9:47 a.m. Saudi time, while West Texas Intermediate crude was at $95.59. They were both hovering around $60 levels at the start of 2026.
“Headlines are coming at the market like water from a fire hose, which is impacting the price of oil, and consequently, financial markets,” said Mitch Reznick, group head of fixed income at Federated Hermes.
“The question remains to what extent we are caught in the $80-plus range even as the headlines become banal with their frequency and contradictions.”
With Iran stepping up attacks across the Middle East as its new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closed, investors are bracing for a prolonged conflict and higher oil prices.
The spectre of rising inflation has led markets to rapidly reprice what they expect from central banks this year, with traders now anticipating just 20 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve compared to 50 bps of cuts priced in last month.
The selloff in global stocks and bonds shows no signs of easing. US stocks fell sharply overnight and the two-year Treasury yields, which typically move in step with Fed interest rate expectations, scaled a six-month high on Thursday.
“With the possibility of higher oil prices still elevated, investors should be prepared for continued volatility and potentially further downside in the near term,” said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.
Shifting rates outlook
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said the impact of rising oil prices on corporate margins, inflation expectations, rate-cut prospects and yields is sparking volatility, leaving participants with few places to hide.
“Indeed, sinking optimism about Fed rate reductions amid strengthening cost pressures is weighing on traditional safe havens such as silver, gold, and government debt.”
The two-year note yield eased 3 bps to 3.730 percent after hitting its highest level since August 22 on Thursday. The yield has gained 35 bps in the two weeks since the war started.
The yield on the longer-dated 30-year bond has risen 24 bps this month.
Investor focus will switch to a slate of policy meetings next week with the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all due to meet, with most expected to keep rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia is broadly expected to hike rates next week.
In currencies, the euro was steady at $1.15035, on course for a weekly decline of nearly 1 percent. The dollar index was at 99.816, set for about a 1 percent weekly advance.
Gold was 0.4 percent higher at $5,101 per ounce on Friday but set for a 1 percent drop for the week.
