Oil hits $80 a barrel on concerns about Iran supply

US bank Morgan Stanley said it had raised its Brent price forecast to $90 per barrel by 2020, due to a steady increase in demand. (Reuters)
Updated 17 May 2018
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Oil hits $80 a barrel on concerns about Iran supply

  • As a result of its surging production, US crude is increasingly appearing on global markets
  • Commodity brokerage Marex Spectron said that the surge in US supplies was a “strongly price-bearish development”

LONDON: Oil prices hit $80 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since November 2014 on concerns Iranian exports could fall, reducing supply in an already tightening market.
Brent crude futures hit $80 and stood up 57 cents at$79.85 per barrel at 0955 GMT.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 64 cents at $72.13 a barrel, also their highest since November 2014.
The prospects of a sharp drop in Iranian oil exports in the coming months due to renewed US sanctions following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from an international nuclear deal with Tehran has lifted oil prices in recent weeks.
France’s Total on Wednesday warned it might abandon a multi-billion-dollar gas project in Iran if it could not secure a waiver from US sanctions, casting further doubt on European-led efforts to salvage the nuclear deal.
“The geo-political noise and escalation fears are here to stay,” said Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Commodity Research, at Swiss bank Julius Baer. “Supply concerns are top of mind after the United States left the Iran nuclear deal.”
Global inventories of crude oil and refined products dropped sharply in recent months due to robust demand and production cuts by the world’s top producing countries.
Oil stocks were expected to drop further as peak summer driving season nears, offsetting increases in US shale output, said analysts at Bernstein.
“While the sharp rise in US production and rig count has raised questions on the sustainability of inventory draws through 2018, we believe that inventories will continue to draw as we enter the summer driving season in 2018,” they said.
Several banks have in recent days raised their oil price forecasts, citing tighter supplies and strong demand.
But high oil prices could hit consumption, the International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday, lowering its global oil demand growth forecast for 2018 to 1.4 million from 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
Asia’s demand is at record highs and with rising prices its crude could cost $1 trillion this year, about twice what it paid during the market lull of 2015/2016.
The IEA said global oil demand would average 99.2 million bpd in 2018, although US bank Goldman Sachs said consumption would cross 100 million bpd “this summer.”
Leading production increases is the United States, where crude output has soared by 27 percent in the last two years, to a record 10.72 million bpd, putting the United States within reach of top producer Russia’s 11 million bpd.
Goldman Sachs, though, said even with a slowdown in demand and soaring US output, global oil markets would remain tight.
“US shale cannot solve the current oil supply problems,” it said, arguing that US oil would not be sufficient to offset production losses from Iran, Venezuela and Angola.
Goldman also said the tight market left “room for OPEC to exit (its production cuts) without significant price impact.”


First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

Updated 16 January 2026
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First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

RIYADH: The EU–Saudi Arabia Business and Investment Dialogue on Advancing Critical Raw Materials Value Chains, held in Riyadh as part of the Future Minerals Forum, brought together senior policymakers, industry leaders, and investors to advance strategic cooperation across critical raw materials value chains.

Organized under a Team Europe approach by the EU–GCC Cooperation on Green Transition Project, in coordination with the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, the European Chamber of Commerce in the Kingdom and in close cooperation with FMF, the dialogue provided a high-level platform to explore European actions under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU alongside the Kingdom’s aspirations for minerals, industrial, and investment priorities.

This is in line with Saudi Vision 2030 and broader regional ambitions across the GCC, MENA, and Africa.

ResourceEU is the EU’s new strategic action plan, launched in late 2025, to secure a reliable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, rare earths, and cobalt, reducing dependency on single suppliers, such as China, by boosting domestic extraction, processing, recycling, stockpiling, and strategic partnerships with resource-rich nations.

The first ever EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials was opened by the bloc’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Christophe Farnaud, together with Saudi Deputy Minister for Mining Development Turki Al-Babtain, turning policy alignment into concrete cooperation.

Farnaud underlined the central role of international cooperation in the implementation of the EU’s critical raw materials policy framework.

“As the European Union advances the implementation of its Critical Raw Materials policy, international cooperation is indispensable to building secure, diversified, and sustainable value chains. Saudi Arabia is a key partner in this effort. This dialogue reflects our shared commitment to translate policy alignment into concrete business and investment cooperation that supports the green and digital transitions,” said the ambassador.

Discussions focused on strengthening resilient, diversified, and responsible CRM supply chains that are essential to the green and digital transitions.

Participants explored concrete opportunities for EU–Saudi cooperation across the full value chain, including exploration, mining, and processing and refining, as well as recycling, downstream manufacturing, and the mobilization of private investment and sustainable finance, underpinned by high environmental, social, and governance standards.

From the Saudi side, the dialogue was framed as a key contribution to the Kingdom’s industrial transformation and long-term economic diversification agenda under Vision 2030, with a strong focus on responsible resource development and global market integration.

“Developing globally competitive mineral hubs and sustainable value chains is a central pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s industrial transformation. Our engagement with the European Union through this dialogue to strengthen upstream and downstream integration, attract high-quality investment, and advance responsible mining and processing. Enhanced cooperation with the EU, capitalizing on the demand dynamics of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, will be key to delivering long-term value for both sides,” said Al-Babtain.

Valere Moutarlier, deputy director-general for European industry decarbonization, and directorate-general for the internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and SMEs at European Commission, said the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU provided a clear framework to strengthen Europe’s resilience while deepening its cooperation with international partners.

“Cooperation with Saudi Arabia is essential to advancing secure, sustainable, and diversified critical raw materials value chains. Dialogues such as this play a key role in translating policy ambitions into concrete industrial and investment cooperation,” she added.