PARIS: Global oil supplies could be hit by the decision by the US to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, and also by falling production in crisis-hit Venezuela, the IEA said on Wednesday.
The decision by US President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Iran deal “has switched the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics,” the International Energy Agency wrote in its regular monthly report.
On May 8, Trump announced he would pull the US out of a 2015 pact — agreed by Britain, China, Germany, Russia and the Barack Obama administration — that opened up Tehran’s atomic program in return for an easing of sanctions.
Oil prices — which had already rising on the back of steady demand growth and a landmark deal by oil producing countries, both inside and outside OPEC, to lower output — have since surged above $77 per barrel, the IEA said.
“In these early days, there is understandable uncertainty about (the) potential impact on Iran’s oil exports” from the US move, it said.
When sanctions were imposed in 2012, Iranian exports fell by about 1.2 million barrels per day, the organization said.
“It is too soon to say what will happen this time, but we should examine whether other producers could step in to ensure an orderly flow of oil to the market and offset a disruption to Iranian exports.”
Shortly after the US announcement, Saudi Arabia, the OPEC kingpin, acknowledged the need to work with producers and consumers to mitigate possible supply shortfalls, the IEA noted.
Another possible risk to the global oil supply could come from crisis-hit Venezuela, the IEA said.
“In Venezuela, the pace of decline of oil production is accelerating and by the end of this year output could have fallen by several hundred thousand barrels a day,” the IEA said.
“The potential double supply shortfall represented by Iran and Venezuela could present a major challenge for producers to fend off sharp price rises and fill the gap, not just in terms of the number of barrels but also in terms of oil quality,” it said.
The IEA said that the overall market balance was “continuing to tighten,” and it lowered its estimate for 2018 global oil demand growth to 1.4 million barrels per day from its previous estimate of 1.5 million.
“Demand at the start of the year was supported by cold weather in Europe and the US, the start-up of new petrochemical capacity in the US and a solid economic background,” the IEA said.
“While the economic environment will continue to support oil demand... support from harsh weather conditions will vanish and the recent jump in oil prices will take its toll,” it said.
“Therefore, world oil demand growth is expected to slow” in the second half of the year.
Iran and Venezuela weighing on oil market, energy watchdog says
Iran and Venezuela weighing on oil market, energy watchdog says
Sustainability Forum Middle East spotlights Saudi role in driving climate finance deployment
MANAMA: Saudi Arabia’s growing influence over sustainable finance and climate-aligned investment was a central theme at the Sustainability Forum Middle East, as regional banks, investors, and policymakers signaled a shift from climate pledges to market execution.
The fourth edition of the forum, held in Bahrain under the theme “Advancing Alignment, Innovation, and Implementation for Energy and Climate Transformation,” brought together more than 500 participants and over 50 speakers from government, finance, energy, and industry.
While the agenda covered climate diplomacy and national strategies, the dominant conversations this year centered on capital deployment, bankability, technology, and the commercial realities of the energy transition.
Saudi Arabia’s role in shaping that transition was repeatedly highlighted, particularly through its efforts to structure green finance instruments, integrate sustainability into Vision 2030 programs, and scale renewable energy ambitions. Global banks at the forum pointed to the kingdom as a key driver of demand for credible sustainable finance frameworks in the Gulf.
“Saudi Arabia has demonstrated clear leadership through Vision 2030 and its green financing frameworks,” Lina Osman, managing director and head of sustainable finance for the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, told Arab News.
“The Public Investment Fund’s green bond issuance is a clear demonstration of the value of the opportunity that is available in Saudi Arabia and how Saudi Arabia is seizing that opportunity,” she added.
Osman also noted that Saudi Arabia’s target of sourcing 50 percent of its electricity from renewables represents a “true demonstration of leadership in sustainability,” adding that financing instruments will need to evolve to serve those ambitions.
She said the bank has been customizing sustainable finance structures for Gulf Cooperation Council clients as the market becomes more sophisticated and sector-specific.
Organizations at the forum said the region has moved beyond ESG signaling and into discussions about return profiles, risk pricing, and revenue impact.
“Financial institutions are now focused on how sustainability generates value — reducing costs, building resilience, and boosting revenue. Previously, it was mostly window dressing,” said Ian McCallum, chief sustainability officer at Bank ABC.
Speaking to Arab News, he added that Saudi Arabia is playing a “significant role in shaping the direction of sustainable finance by continuing to strengthen ESG regulatory and disclosure requirements.”
Speakers from private markets and venture capital also pointed to Saudi Arabia as an emerging market for climate technologies that are moving from pilot phase to commercialization.
Investors highlighted carbon removal, energy optimization, and AI-enabled climate solutions as areas where the Kingdom’s scaling capacity and demand for industrial decarbonization make deployment feasible.
Beyond finance, the forum examined how the GCC can accelerate industrial decarbonization through AI integration, carbon capture, supply chain reform, and the expansion of renewables.
Panels explored how sovereign strategies and industrial policy are aligning across the region, with Saudi Arabia’s energy transition goals seen as an anchor for cross-border capital flows.
The event saw memorandums of understanding and multi-sector partnerships intended to translate national ambitions into deployable projects.
Organizers said the agreements reflect a shift toward implementation, positioning the Gulf as a market where climate action is increasingly tied to competitiveness, industrial growth, and long-term economic resilience.
