Saudi Arabia’s economy in a ‘sweet spot’, says US bank

Riyadh by night: Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts Saudi Arabia will continue to push forward with its reform process regardless of the rising price of oil. (Reuters)
Updated 23 April 2018
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Saudi Arabia’s economy in a ‘sweet spot’, says US bank

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research: “With a more entrenched current account surplus possible this year, FX reserves could increase.”
  • “Reforms are likely to broadly proceed, even at these levels of oil prices, although spending may increase further above baseline expectations.”

LONDON: The Saudi Arabian economy is in a “sweet spot”, with higher oil prices allowing the Kingdom to boost spending while not having a significant impact on the country’s fiscal balance, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.

“Our meetings on Saudi Arabia comfort us in our view that the economy is in a sweet spot. Higher oil prices are allowing the focus on boosting activity not to materially impact fiscal balances,” the note said, published following the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings held in Washington DC this month.

“With a more entrenched current account surplus possible this year, FX reserves could increase this year,” the note said.

The bank forecasts the country will continue to push forward with its reform process regardless of the rising price of oil. Many of Saudi Arabia’s reforms are part of its Vision 2030 that aims to diversify the country’s economy away from its reliance on oil.

Brent oil reached a three-and-a-half year high on 19 April, hitting $74.74 a barrel.

“Reforms are likely to broadly proceed, even at these levels of oil prices, although spending may increase further above baseline expectations,” the note said.

The bank was also upbeat about Egypt’s economic prospects, noting that the country’s “macro stablization” is continuing and that its reform program, which includes cutting fuel subsidies and reforming the tax system, remains “intact”.

“Authorities are on track to achieve a small 0.2 percent of GDP primary surplus this fiscal year. The target is to bring the primary surplus to 2 percent of GDP next fiscal year, and maintain it there going forward,” it said.


Saudi Maaden reports 156% surge in annual net profit to $2bn on strong commodity prices and record production

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Saudi Maaden reports 156% surge in annual net profit to $2bn on strong commodity prices and record production

RIYADH: Saudi mining and metals company Maaden has reported a 156 percent jump in its net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, driven by higher commodity prices, record production volumes, and a one-off bargain purchase gain.

The state-backed giant posted a net profit of SR7.35 billion ($1.95 billion) for the full year 2025, an increase from SR2.87 billion in the previous year. The firm’s revenue surged by 19 percent to SR38.58 billion, up from SR32.55 billion in 2024.

This comes as Saudi Arabia steps up efforts to expand its mining sector as a pillar of economic diversification, encouraging international participation and private investment to unlock the Kingdom’s estimated $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral resources under Vision 2030.    

In a statement on Tadawul, the company said: “Performance was led by record phosphate production, near record aluminum production, an increase in all three of Maaden’s main output commodity prices.”

The performance was also fueled by a 60 percent increase in gross profit, which reached SR14.79 billion. In its annual results announcement, Maaden attributed the top-line growth to “higher commodity market prices for phosphate, aluminum and gold business units,” as well as increased sales volumes in its phosphate and aluminum segments. This was partially offset by slightly lower sales volume in the gold unit.

Maaden’s CEO, Bob Wilt, hailed 2025 as a transformative year for the company, marked by strategic growth and operational excellence. “This was a great year for Maaden’s strategic growth. We delivered strong financial results and sustained operational excellence across the business,” he said in a statement.

“This was driven by growth in production across all businesses, including record-breaking DAP (di-ammonium phosphatevolumes), disciplined cost control across and a clear commitment to our role as a cornerstone of the Saudi economy,” Wilt added.

Profitability was further bolstered by an increased share of net profit from joint ventures and an associate. This included a one-off bargain purchase gain of SR768 million related to Maaden’s investment in Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. The company also benefited from lower finance costs.

The fourth quarter of 2025 was strong, with Maaden swinging to a net profit of SR1.67 billion, compared to a loss of SR106 million in the same period of the prior year. Quarterly revenue rose 7 percent to SR10.64 billion.

The firm achieved record production of di-ammonium phosphate, reaching 6.72 million tonnes for the year, a 9 percent increase. Aluminum production remained near-record levels, while the company added a net 7.8 million ounces to its reportable gold mineral resources through discovery and resource development.

The phosphate division saw sales jump 17 percent to SR20.77 billion, with the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin expanding to 47 percent. The aluminum business reported a 9 percent increase in sales to SR10.99 billion, with EBITDA more than doubling in the fourth quarter.

Looking ahead, Wilt emphasized that the pace of growth will accelerate as the company advances key initiatives, including the Phosphate 3 Phase 1 and Ar Rjum projects, which remain on budget and schedule. Maaden has also secured a gas supply for its future Phosphate 4 project.

“This pace of growth will only accelerate. Not only as we advance projects and increase the scale of our exploration program, but as we continue to grow production and implement technology that will further modernize, streamline and unlock value,” Wilt added.

Earnings per share for the year rose sharply to SR1.91, up from SR0.78 in 2024. Total shareholders’ equity increased by 18.7 percent to SR61.59 billion.