DUBAI: Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation will be “unstoppable” and there has already been a positive shift in the Kingdom’s business culture, according to a top executive of American financial giant Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Hootan Yazhari, managing director of the bank’s Dubai-based research department, said there are key moves being made to boost accountability in Kingdom.
“On the ground, you can see the change. It’s palpable. There is a change in attitude and culture toward accountability. The process of change in the Kingdom is like turning an oil tanker round — when it happens it will be unstoppable.”
Yazhari was speaking as the bank unveiled its latest report into Saudi Arabia’s investment outlook, finances and economy, completed just after the launch of the anti-corruption drive by the government. The bank said the campaign against corruption in the country “may dampen near-term sentiment but is likely to provide further impetus to ensuring success of reforms and stable energy policy.”
The anti-corruption drive was a key issue for the progress of the government’s National Transformation Program (NTP) 2020 to privatize large parts of the Kingdom’s corporate structure, Yazhari said. “The uncertainty relates to the scope of the investigations under way now. Our understanding is that it is limited to individuals, and does not include corporates.
“Depending on how this plays out, we see Saudi Arabia as an exciting opportunity. Next year could see twin indexation events — with Saudi Arabia admitted to the FTSE and the MSCI — and then it will be a market that investors have to be involved in,” he added.
The bank said that a delay in implementing the NTP goals “would allow more time for ministries to meet their targets.” The bank said that the ultimate value of the non-oil privatization program — put at $200 billion by the Saudi economy ministry — would depend on a detailed analysis of financial performance of the assets to be sold, adding that there could be “sizeable budgetary savings from a successful privatization program.”
Jean-Michel Saliba, chief economist and strategist for the Middle East and North Africa, said the upcoming Saudi budget could see the government “loosen the purse strings” further after a period of comparative fiscal austerity.
“Higher oil prices support government efforts to lengthen the timeline for fiscal consolidation. Still, they may breed complacency and have brought uncertainty on the pace of reforms going forward,” he said.
Saliba said that the recent suggestion from the Saudi Ministry of Finance that the target date of 2020 to reach fiscal balance could be pushed back to 2023 “is in line with our view that the government wants to achieve an uneasy balance between austerity and activity, and try to support growth.”
“Accelerated fiscal reform could put the economy in recession for the next couple of years,” Yazhari said.
The bank said there had been “mixed progress” on the program to achieve fiscal balance so far, with “cascading delays” to reforms like the scrapping of fuel and energy subsidies, originally scheduled for this year, due to a “weak economy and the seasonal summer energy consumption peak.”
Saliba added that with oil at current levels — Brent stood at $61.70 a barrel yesterday — the government would have much more room with the budget. The bank’s calculations and forecasts were made on the assumption of $50 per barrel, and it said it was unlikely that Brent would average more than $65 per barrel until 2020, but could peak cyclically at $75. On Saudi Aramco, officially due to be privatized by the end of next year in an initial public offering (IPO) that could be worth as much as $100 billion, the bank said that an international sale — either through IPO or private placement — would be necessary to secure inflows of foreign exchange reserves.
The Tadawul stock market in Riyadh has said it could stage the whole IPO domestically.
Regarding a venue for the IPO, Bank of America said that the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), considered an obstacle by many analysts to a listing on the New York Stock Exchange, “in its current form may not bear material influence on decision-making.”
Saudi economic transformation to be ‘unstoppable’: Bank of America
Saudi economic transformation to be ‘unstoppable’: Bank of America
Saudi NHC, Spain’s Urbas to construct almost 600 housing units in Al-Fursan suburb
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Al-Fursan suburb will soon be home to 589 new residential units worth around SR1 billion ($266 million) thanks to a deal sealed by the National Housing Co.
Inked with Urbas Middle East Real Estate Co., a subsidiary of the Spanish Urbas Group, the agreement involves the development as well as construction of the housing units on an area spanning 150,000 sq. m, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
This collaboration marks a significant milestone in the development of the Al-Fursan suburb. It also promises to set new standards in property development.
“This agreement complements the efforts of the recent visit to Spain and continues to attract international investments with major companies to provide various housing products that fulfill and meet the desires of citizens,” Saudi Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Majid Al-Hogail said in a post on X.
“As an extension of our journey in attracting the best international experiences and expertise in the real estate development industry, I was pleased to meet the CEO of the Spanish company Urbas, which is planned to be one of the companies developing the Al-Fursan neighborhood project in Riyadh,” Al-Hogail added.
The minister also highlighted how this step will contribute to providing innovative housing options and facilitate the exchange of experiences between Saudi and international developers.
IMF surcharges on borrowings exacerbate global inequities: report
BENGALURU: Countries, mostly middle and lower-income, have been burdened by surcharges on top of interest payments on their borrowings from the International Monetary Fund, widening global inequities, according to a report by US think tanks.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
Indebted member countries paid about $6.4 billion in surcharges between 2020-2023, the report from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center and Columbia University’s Initiative for Policy Dialogue released on Tuesday showed.
And the number of countries paying these surcharges has more than doubled in the last four years.
The IMF is expected to charge an estimated $9.8 billion in surcharges in the next five years, according to an earlier report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Critics of the policy argue that surcharges do not hasten repayment and instead punish countries already struggling with liquidity constraints, increase the risk of debt distress and divert scarce resources that could be used to boost the struggling economies.
BY THE NUMBERS
Countries such as Ukraine, Egypt, Argentina, Barbados and Pakistan pay the most in surcharges, the report showed, accounting for 90 percent of the IMF’s surcharge revenues.
These surcharges, levied on top of the fund’s increasingly steeper basic rate, are IMF’s single largest source of revenue, accounting for 50 percent of total revenue in 2023.
KEY QUOTES
“IMF surcharges are inherently pro-cyclical as they increase debt service payments when a borrowing country is most need of emergency financing," Global Development Policy Center’s Director Kevin Gallagher said.
“Increasing surcharges and global shocks are compounding the economic pressure on vulnerable countries.”
CONTEXT
Data published by the Institute of International Finance earlier this year showed global debt levels hit a record of $313 trillion in 2023, while the debt-to-GDP ratio — a reading indicating a country’s ability to pay back debts — across emerging economies also scaled fresh peaks.
IMF shareholders agreed last week on the importance of addressing challenges faced by low-income countries, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.
China’s wealth fund joins with Bahrain’s Investcorp for $1bn Middle East investment
RIYADH: China’s growing interest in the Middle East continues as the country’s sovereign wealth fund partnered with Bahrain’s Investcorp to establish a $1 billion investment pot.
According to a press statement, Investcorp Golden Horizon fund will assist companies across Saudi Arabia, the wider Gulf Cooperation Council region and China.
The reserve will be anchored by reputable institutional and private investors from the GCC, as well as China Investment Corp.
The press statement revealed that target companies are expected to have high growth potential in sectors including consumer, health care, logistics and business services.
“During the past couple of years, we have built several bilateral funds with leading financial institutions to facilitate industrial cooperation between China and major economies in the world,” said Bin Qi, executive vice president and chief information officer at CIC.
He added: “Currently, we are working closely with Investcorp to build a similar bilateral fund to strengthen financial and industrial ties between China and GCC countries.”
This commitment from CIC comes when the GCC’s appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace, thanks to its stable regulatory environment and pro-business policies, driven by economic diversification efforts in the region and strategic privatization mandates.
“This commitment by CIC, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, is a testament to Investcorp’s unparalleled franchise in the GCC and reinforces the trust placed in the firm’s global platform and teams. We are looking forward to building on this relationship and growing our partnership in the future,” said Mohammed Al-Ardhi, executive chairman of Investcorp.
Co-CEO of Investcorp Hazem Ben-Gacem said the launch of the new fund will facilitate cross-border cooperation and investments between the GCC and China.
Trade and economic relationships between the Middle East and China have always been strong.
In 2023, China’s exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE amounted to $42.86 billion and $55.68 billion respectively.
On the other hand, the Asian giant’s imports from Saudi Arabia totaled $64.36 billion in 2023.
In November, Saudi Arabia’s central bank, also known as SAMA, and the People’s Bank of China signed a local currency swap agreement worth $6.93 billion.
SAMA, in a statement, said that the three-year agreement “has been established in the context of financial cooperation between the Saudi Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China.”
The Asian country’s central bank said that the agreement will help strengthen financial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China, promote the use of local currencies, and strengthen trade and investments between nations.
Oil Updates – crude steady as market weighs US demand concerns, Middle East conflict risks
SINGAPORE: Oil prices steadied on Thursday after settling lower in the previous day, as signs of retreating fuel demand in the US, the world’s biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the key Middle East producing region, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures inched up 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $88.20 a barrel at 9:30 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $82.94 a barrel.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that gasoline stockpiles fell less than forecast while distillate stockpiles rose against expectations of a decline, reflecting signs of slowing demand.
The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling US business activity in April and as stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the US Federal Reserve is more likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.
“The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions,” said Emril Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts, economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.
A better indication of the Fed’s rate intentions will be seen after US gross domestic product and March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start an assault on Rafah, in the enclave’s south, which may increase the risk of a wider war that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.
However, there have been no other signs of direct conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
“Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen, and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighboring countries is underpinning oil prices,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co. Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed that crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.
Saudia unveils beta version of new Travel Companion platform
RIYADH: The Kingdom’s flagship airline Saudia has launched a beta version of its digital platform, the Travel Companion, powered by advanced artificial intelligence, aiming to transform the industry.
The new initiative, unveiled during a special event, is part of a two-year plan developed in partnership with global professional services firm Accenture.
“This platform, resulting from our ongoing collaboration with Accenture, signifies our forward-looking approach to providing guests with unparalleled convenience and flexibility,” the Director General of Saudia Group, Ibrahim Al-Omar, said.
The main objective of this launch is to transform how travelers engage with the airline and establish new benchmarks for digital travel.
TC, initially named, offers personalized and tailored solutions to meet individual preferences and needs, providing search results from trusted and authenticated sources and incorporating visual aids in its responses.
The interface is designed as a comprehensive, one-stop solution that enables users to book concierge services, including hotels, transportation, and restaurants, as well as activities and attractions, without the need to switch between multiple platforms.
“This is a beta version. This is not the product. We will keep enhancing and developing it,” Al-Omar stressed.
Moreover, it establishes seamless connections with transportation platforms and various train companies, ensuring a smooth and uninterrupted journey.
Commenting on the new announcement, Chief Data and Technology Officer at Saudia, Abdulgader Attiah, told Arab News: “It’s like having the VVVIP concierge service at your hand. For public, it’s not any anymore VIP service. It’s not a paid service. You have it for free, and it will give you all what all kind of services that VVIP service would provide to you, so it’s your private concierge.”
He added: “We will be the anchor for the travel industry. We are not anymore, an operator for an airline, but with this app, you will be an anchor for all tourism ecosystem in a single app, so everyone can collaborate in this app, and having the links, so you don’t need to communicate with any other party, so through this app, you can communicate to all travel ecosystem.”
In future phases, Saudia plans to add more features, including voice command and digital payment solutions.
“Once we add the complete solution we will add the more services, which is we call it the concierge services; booking for hotels and transportation and the restaurants, all of these ones is done during the, next two years, and this is the complete life cycle of the, vision we have today,” Attiah told Arab News.
He added: “If you want to develop this app, five years back, it would take three, four years. Today, we have developed only in seven, eight months. To that from the inspirational part to having an actual booking, we started back in June and now we are live.”
Attiah also underlined that Saudia is the first airline in the world to implement a GenAI-based chatbot that can perform end-to-end actions, meaning it can not only engage in conversation but also execute tasks or actions based on user requests.
With an always-on Travel Companion available through a telecom e-SIM card provided by Saudia, users can stay connected globally without relying on additional internet providers.
Furthermore, users can purchase data packages for extended use, guaranteeing continuous access to the platform’s services.
