LONDON: Britain’s three quoted major supermarkets are expected to report this week that they enjoyed solid Christmas trading, though investor concern about a potential squeeze on consumer spending in 2017 means the focus is on their outlooks.
Shares in market leader Tesco and Morrisons , the UK’s fourth biggest grocer, soared 38 percent and 55 percent respectively in 2016, reflecting a recovery in trading.
That coincided with a slowdown in sales growth at German discounters Aldi, which will update on Christmas on Jan. 9, and Lidl as Britain’s traditional supermarkets cut their prices, and continued problems at sector laggard Asda, the No. 3 player.
The share price of No. 2 Sainsbury’s was held back by uncertainty over the merits of its £1.1 billion takeover of household goods retailer Argos.
Robust growth in consumer spending has been one of the main factors sustaining Britain’s economy since last June’s vote to leave the EU. However, retailers fear a reduction in spending as inflation begins to erode real earnings growth in 2017.
Sterling’s devaluation since the Brexit vote — down 12 percent against other major currencies — has also driven up supermarkets’ import costs, as have commodity price increases. They also face further cost pressures from the national minimum wage, business rates and utilities.
There are also signs that Asda, the British arm of Wal-Mart , will make life tougher for rivals in 2017.
Analysts say a new management team is starting to make an impact, putting more staff on the shop floor and generally improving store standards. While underlying sales slumped 5.8 percent in its third quarter, they anticipate a significant improvement when it reports fourth quarter results next month.
Analysts expect Tesco (on Jan. 12) to report UK like-for-like sales growth of 1.25 to 2 percent for its third quarter to Nov. 26 and growth of 0.6 to 1.5 percent for the six weeks to Jan. 7, building on four straight quarters of underlying growth.
Morrisons (on Jan. 10) is expected to report underlying sales growth of 1.1 percent for the nine weeks to Jan. 1, according to an average of analysts’ forecasts, a fifth consecutive quarter of growth.
Sainsbury’s (on Jan. 11) could be perceived as the relative loser of the three, with analysts on average forecasting a like-for-like sales fall of 0.8 percent for its third quarter to Jan. 7, though it is still expected to report volume growth and underlying sales growth at Argos of 1.5 percent.
However, it is important to note that Sainsbury’s, unlike Tesco and Morrisons, is not in turnaround mode and has not had to rebase its like-for-like sales performance.
Updates due this week from a raft of other UK retailers, including from Marks & Spencer, department stores John Lewis and Debenhams and Primark owner AB Foods, will also shine a light on prospects for the sector.
Marks & Spencer will (on Jan. 12) report on its third quarter to Dec. 31. Analysts are on average forecasting like-for-like sales growth in its clothing and home division of 0.2 percent with underlying sales in its food business down 0.4 percent.
Such an outcome in clothing would represent an improvement on the second quarter’s 2.9 percent fall and provide some encouragement to investors that new boss Steve Rowe’s turnaround plan has found some traction.
Rival Next recently reported disappointing Christmas sales, cut its profit forecast and highlighted “exceptional” levels of uncertainty in the sector.
Solid Christmas for UK supermarkets before uncertain 2017
Solid Christmas for UK supermarkets before uncertain 2017
AI will never replace human creativity, says SRMG CEO
- Speaking to Maya Hojeij, senior business anchor at Asharq with Bloomberg, Jomana R. Alrashid expressed pride in SRMG platforms that had absorbed and adopted AI
RIYADH: Jomana R. Alrashid, CEO of Saudi Research and Media Group, highlighted how AI cannot replace human creativity during a session at The Family Office’s “Investing Is a Sea” summit at Shura Island on Friday.
“You can never replace human creativity. Journalism at the end of the day, and content creation, is all about storytelling, and that’s a creative role that AI does not have the power to do just yet,” Alrashid told the investment summit.
“We will never eliminate that human role which comes in to actually tell that story, do the actual investigative reporting around it, make sure to be able to also tell you what’s news or what’s factual from what’s wrong ... what’s a misinformation from bias, and that’s the bigger role that the editorial player does in the newsroom.”
Speaking on the topic of AI, moderated by Maya Hojeij, senior business anchor at Asharq with Bloomberg, the CEO expressed her pride in SRMG platforms that had absorbed and adopted AI in a way that was “transformative.”
“We are now translating all of our content leveraging AI. We are also now being able to create documentaries leveraging AI. We now have AI-facilitated fact-checking, AI facilities clipping, transcribing. This is what we believe is the future.”
Alrashid was asked what the journalist of the future would look like. “He’s a journalist and an engineer. He’s someone who needs to understand data. And I think this is another topic that is extremely important, understanding the data that you’re working with,” she said.
“This is something that AI has facilitated as well. I must say that over the past 20 years in the region, especially when it comes to media companies, we did not understand the importance of data.”
The CEO highlighted that previously, media would rely on polling, surveys or viewership numbers, but now more detailed information about what viewers wanted was available.
During the fireside session, Alrashid was asked how the international community viewed the Middle Eastern media. Alrashid said that over the past decades it had played a critical role in informing wider audiences about issues that were extremely complex — politically, culturally and economically — and continued to play that role.
“Right now it has a bigger role to play, given the role again of social media, citizen journalists, content creators. But I also do believe that it has been facilitated by the power that AI has. Now immediately, you can ensure that that kind of content that is being created by credible, tier-A journalists, world-class journalists, can travel beyond its borders, can travel instantly to target different geographies, different people, different countries, in different languages, in different formats.”
She said that there was a big opportunity for Arab media not to be limited to simply Arab consumption, but to finally transcend borders and be available in different languages and to cater to their audiences.
The CEO expressed optimism about the future, emphasizing the importance of having a clear vision, a strong strategy, and full team alignment.
Traditional advertising models, once centered on television and print, were rapidly changing, with social media platforms now dominating advertising revenue.
“It’s drastically changing. Ultimately in the past, we used to compete with one another over viewership. But now we’re also competing with the likes of social media platforms; 80 percent of the advertising revenue in the Middle East goes to the social media platforms, but that means that there’s 80 percent interest opportunities.”
She said that the challenge was to create the right content on these platforms that engaged the target audiences and enabled commercial partnerships. “I don’t think this is a secret, but brands do not like to advertise with news channels. Ultimately, it’s always related with either conflict or war, which is a deterrent to advertisers.
“And that’s why we’ve entered new verticals such as sports. And that’s why we also double down on our lifestyle vertical. Ultimately, we have the largest market share when it comes to lifestyle ... And we’ve launched new platforms such as Billboard Arabia that gives us an entry into music.”
Alrashid said this was why the group was in a strong position to counter the decline in advertising revenues across different platforms, and by introducing new products.
“Another very important IP that we’ve created is events attached to the brands that have been operating in the region for 30-plus years. Any IP or any title right now that doesn’t have an event attached to it is missing out on a very big commercial opportunity that allows us to sit in a room, exchange ideas, talk to one another, get to know one another behind the screen.”
The CEO said that disruption was now constant and often self-driving, adding that the future of the industry was often in storytelling and the ability to innovate by creating persuasive content that connected directly with the audience.
“But the next disruption is going to continue to come from AI. And how quickly this tool and this very powerful technology evolves. And whether we are in a position to cope with it, adapt to it, and absorb it fully or not.”
