About 18 years after holding its first international conference on Afghanistan in Tashkent, Uzbekistan is again hosting a meeting to reach a consensus to end the long-running Afghan conflict.

The July 1999 conference was the first gathering of the 6+2 Contact Group which included Afghanistan’s direct neighbors — China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan —  plus the United States and Russia.

Uzbekistan’s late President Islam Karimov had taken the initiative in the hope of finding a political solution to the Afghan war taking place in his neighborhood. The conference issued the Tashkent Declaration following an agreement not to provide military support to any Afghan side involved in the conflict and urging the Taliban to stop giving refuge to internationally designated terrorists.

As it turned out, the conference made no difference as the fighting continued and became even more intense.

The Tashkent conference on March 26-27 is bigger, with greater international participation at the foreign ministers’ level, but the question remains whether the declaration to be announced at the end of the event will contribute to peace in Afghanistan.

The initiative this time has been taken by Uzbekistan’s current President Shavkat Mirziyoyev who, unlike his predecessor, has opened his country diplomatically and is keen to undertake regional re-engagement, particularly with Afghanistan. Uzbekistan hosted a security conference in Samarkand last year because it is concerned, like all Central Asian countries, that the Afghan war may spill over into his country.

Economic interests, too, are pushing Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to consider regional connectivity, though insecurity in Afghanistan remains the major stumbling block in unleashing the potential benefits of such an engagement. All these factors are prompting the Central Asians to put their weight behind efforts to make Afghanistan peaceful and stable.

The meeting may create some benefits for the war-ravaged country but is unlikely to bring peace.

Rahimullah Yusufzai

More than 20 countries, including Russia, China, the US, the UK, Germany, France, Iran, India, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, are attending the conference. The United Nations and European Union are among the participants. Most of the countries and international organizations that attended the Kabul Process peace conference on Feb. 28 are also present at the Tashkent event.

It was at the Kabul Process conference that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani made his significant peace proposals while offering peace talks to the Taliban. He offered to recognize the Taliban as a political organization provided it renounced violence and abided by Afghanistan’s constitution.

There has been no response from the Taliban amid reports that Ghani’s offer won’t be accepted unless it is accompanied by guarantees that the US-led foreign forces will withdraw from Afghanistan.

As Afghanistan is co-hosting the Tashkent conference, it is possible the Afghan President will reiterate his peace proposals and also mention the issue of foreign troops’ presence in his country. Throughout the past 17 years, the Taliban’s main demand has been complete pullout of the foreign forces. However, Afghanistan and NATO member countries know that the Afghan security forces need time and resources to be able to sustain the government in power. President Ghani said recently that his security forces could collapse within six months without international assistance.

As at previous conferences on Afghanistan, there will be no Taliban representatives at Tashkent. Taliban participation won’t happen unless the group first enters into dialogue with the Afghan government or the US, as it has been demanding. The internationally recognized Afghan government has been opposed to any contacts with the Taliban as it believes this emboldens the group and undermines Kabul.

Russia seems keen to support Uzbekistan’s peace initiative and its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is leading his delegation at Tashkent. Russia, too, had hosted three peace conferences on Afghanistan in 2016-17 as part of a regional initiative, but its effort didn’t make headway owing to the US’ refusal to attend.

It won’t be surprising if Russia is backing Uzbekistan’s move to take forward Moscow’s regional initiative approach for ending the Afghan conflict. The US and its Western allies are attending the Tashkent conference, though Washington’s participation is at a lower level compared with Russia.

The Tashkent meeting is unlikely to lead to a breakthrough in bringing peace in Afghanistan, but it can facilitate international consensus on the broad principles of an Afghan settlement and extend the benefits of trade, energy, transportation, and cultural and humanitarian cooperation in Central Asia and its neighborhood to the war-ravaged country.

— Rahimullah Yusufzai is senior political and security analyst of Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1