The United States and the Taliban negotiators have concluded the 9th round of talks in Doha, Qatar. The head of the US negotiating team, Zalmay Khalilzad was expected to share the draft agreement with the leaders of Afghan government in Kabul. After getting a nod from Kabul, the draft agreement would be made public.

The deal is the outcome of more than ten months of intensive diplomatic efforts in which Khalilzad had several long sessions with the insurgent group in Doha. He also constantly interacted with government leaders in Kabul, Islamabad, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Turkey.

The talks focused on four main areas. The withdrawal of foreign forces was the persistent demand of the Taliban who believed the conflict has arisen fundamentally because of the presence of foreign forces in the country. Reports indicate the US has agreed to pull out most of its forces within an agreed timeframe.

The Taliban have agreed to give guarantees that Afghan soil would not be allowed to be used by any group or party against any foreign country and no such group would be allowed to establish its infrastructure in the country.

The issue of a cease-fire was linked to certain conditions like the withdrawal of foreign forces from a particular area and that area being declared as having no US/NATO forces so that the insurgents would stop launching any attacks there. But problems relating to attacks on government forces have apparently not been resolved.

The issue of an interim government being formed was being left to be decided in the intra-Afghan talks i.e. the Taliban talking to the Kabul government.

There appears to be an agreement in principle on the release of Taliban prisoners as well as lifting restrictions on the movement of Taliban leaders.

Would the agreement deliver peace? Only when the insurgency ends and a government with mass support emerges in Kabul; one that is underpinned by institutions and the rule of law. That may not happen any time soon. There would be a transition period in order to reach that goal. The critical point is how to ensure this transition is smooth and does not generate fighting among different groups across the country.

There is a danger of powerful political and military leaders taking advantage of the end of the major conflict and collecting their supporters to make a bid for political positions in the new dispensation. Such people with ambition and resources are spread all over the country. They would not easily acquiesce in a situation where they suddenly find themselves without any position of authority or influence in a changed country. These are the people who would pose the greatest risk to the new emerging political leadership.

But there is another formidable obstacle to overcome.

Would the agreement deliver peace? Only when the insurgency ends and a government with mass support emerges in Kabul; one that is underpinned by institutions and the rule of law

Rustam Shah

Would President Ashraf Ghani and his colleagues in the government go along with any formula that does not ensure their continued relevance and authority? Would they accept the setting up of an interim government now that the presidential election is only about a month away?

Obviously for the Taliban to be mainstreamed in the electoral and administrative processes of the country, an interim government would have to be agreed upon by all parties. It is here that the role of the US would be needed the most. Only strong US pressure could persuade the Kabul government to show flexibility. The US in convincing Ghani would have to refer to the stark realities on the ground. There’s the fact that the government is losing control of more than half the country; insurgency is also gaining new grounds every day. There’s been an increase in the number of deadly attacks on coalition and government forces and the Afghan national army losing soldiers as they defect. The Afghan army and police are losing motivation. Opium cultivation is on the rise and heroin addicts are numbering more than 300,000. People are losing faith in the government’s ability to deliver peace and the economy is in a terrible shape as the country depends on an external inflow of funds.

The cease-fire issue may also present some problems. But if the US is able to begin to pull out troops within an agreed time frame, the issue of cease-fire could perhaps be resolved. The Americans have to be wary of Taliban’s concerns on the issue. If the cease-fire does not deliver peace or if hostilities break out again, the movement will find it very difficult to get their volunteers to come out again and launch attacks. That is the worry of the Taliban and there has to be some consensus of how to take care of this particular concern.

There may be a host of issues as parties begin to implement the deal that could be concluded soon. But if the Taliban are convinced that a genuine troops pull out is taking place, many of these hurdles will hopefully be overcome and the trust deficit would slowly begin to diminish.

The coming few days will witness intense lobbying, behind the scene manipulations, and quid pro quo as the long conflict enters its final phase.