DUBLIN: The head of Dubai-based airline Emirates has expressed concerns about the impact on travel across Europe if Britain votes to leave the EU in a June 23 referendum, as airline bosses gathered at a conference prepared for the worst.
Noting forecasts about economic disruption in the UK in the event of a vote to leave the EU, airline president Tim Clark said he was also worried about political and economic volatility in the rest of the 28-nation bloc.
“My concern is what will happen in the rest of the EU,” Clark told reporters at the annual IATA airline industry meeting in Dublin.
“Instability means lowering demand, lowering in demand means less people traveling on aeroplanes. How long that would last, I don’t know,” he said.
The CEO of German carrier Lufthansa also said he expected demand to fall if Britain leaves the bloc.
“We have already brought down our growth plans,” CEO Carsten Spohr said when asked whether the airline was making capacity adjustment plans in the event of a Brexit.
Airlines are among those that have benefited the most from EU agreements on open airspace and free movement of people, and airline executives fear Brexit’s resulting long-winded renegotiation period between governments which would need to take place to ensure that their current access to the skies was retained.
If Britain votes to leave, bilateral agreements allowing unlimited travel between Britain and the rest of the EU would have to be renegotiated. Britain would also have to agree other deals, such as with the United States, which has an open skies arrangement with the EU.
But for Irish carrier Aer Lingus, owned by UK-based International Airlines Group, chief executive Stephen Kavanagh said a Brexit could create opportunities.
“If Heathrow or the UK becomes difficult to transfer through from the European perspective, then that again accelerates the opportunity for us in expanding Irish airports as a gateway,” he said.
Emirates airline president worried about Brexit impact on EU economy
Emirates airline president worried about Brexit impact on EU economy
Oil surges as Iran conflict disrupts Middle Eastern supply flow
SINGAPORE: Oil prices surged by as much as 13 percent on Monday after shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by retaliatory Iranian attacks following initial bombing by Israel and the US that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Brent crude futures rose to as much as $82.37 a barrel, the highest since January 2025, before retreating to be up $5.41, or 7.4 percent, to $78.28 by 09:05 am Saudi time.
US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to an intraday high of $75.33, up over 12 percent and the highest since June, though it later pared gains and was up $4.74, or 7.1 percent, at $71.76.
Both benchmarks jumped as a sustained exchange of counterattacks damaged tankers and sharply disrupted shipmentsin the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
On a typical day, ships carrying oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait sail through the Strait along with tankers hauling diesel and jet fuel and gasoline and other products from their refineries to major Asian markets including China and India.
“Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signalling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.
Prolonged effective closure of the Strait would push oil prices higher and cause shortages in supply to top importers China and India.
More than 200 vessels including oil and liquefied gas tankers have dropped anchor outside the Strait, shipping data showed on Sunday. Three tankers were damaged and one seafarer was killed in attacks on Sunday in Gulf waters.
Asian economies are assessing oil stockpile availability and ways to secure alternative supply. South Korea will offer petroleum from its stockpiles to local industries if supply disruptions are prolonged, while India is exploring alternative shipping routes.
PRICES PARE GAINS
Still, prices pared gains after the steep surge in early Asian trade, which analysts attributed to buyers already factoring a risk premium into prices in anticipation of the conflict.
Brent had risen over 19 percent this year until Friday’s close, while WTI was trading about 17 percent higher.
Amid the conflict, OPEC+ agreedon Sunday to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April. Every OPEC+ producer is essentially producing at capacity except for Saudi Arabia, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said.
The International Energy Agency is in touch with major producers in the Middle East, director Fatih Birol said on Sunday. The energy watchdog coordinates the release of strategic petroleum reserves from developed countries during emergencies.
Globally, visible oil inventories stood at 7.827 million barrels, enough for 74 days of demand, which is near a historical median, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.
Citi analysts expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel this week amid the ongoing conflict.
“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the US decides to de-escalate having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran's missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” Citi analysts led by Max Layton wrote.
Analysts are also warning retail gasoline prices in the US, the world’s biggest fuel consumer, may break above $3 a gallon because of the conflict, a potentially risky result for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections this November.
US gasoline futures surged by as much as 9.1 percent to $2.496 a gallon, their highest since July 2024, and were last at $2.381 a gallon, up 4.2 percent.
