LONDON: The British pound is getting caught between the dollar's surge and the euro's slump, and its swings are shaking things up for business just as uncertainty grows over a potentially tight general election.
Caught in the crossfire of developments in the United States and the 19-country euro zone, the pound has dropped to a 5-year low against the dollar but pushed to a seven-year high against the euro.
Against the dollar, it is trading below $1.50, its lowest since 2010, largely due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates this year. Higher rates tend to bolster a currency's value.
At the same time, the pound has perked up against the euro amid concerns over the euro zone economy that prompted the European Central Bank to launch a 1.1 trillion-euro government bond-buying stimulus program. The pound this month rose above 1.40 euros to the highest level against the euro since the end of 2007.
CONSUMER RELIEF
For British consumers, the impact is straightforward: It will make summer holidays in the euro zone, such as the beaches of Greece and Spain, cheaper than before. At the same time, it will make any shopping spree on Fifth Avenue more expensive.
On the whole, the British stand to gain as they travel more to Europe than they do to the U.S.
The pound's gyrations may also help households by delaying the moment UK borrowing rates start rising.
Because most British imports originate from the euro zone, the pound's rise against the euro means inflation will be lower than expected. That has raised the specter of deflation, a prolonged period of falling prices that can choke an economy.
That's why Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane recently suggested the bank should not raise interest rates soon but cut them — doing so could boost economic activity and raise inflation.
Though few economists think a cut is likely, the fall in inflation has eased expectations that UK borrowing rates will rise this year — to the relief of mortgage holders as well as businesses.
BUSINESS HEADWINDS
Beyond the potential for lower interest rates, the pound's movements are complicating life for British businesses.
In theory, British exporters stand to gain in the US, where their goods will be relatively cheaper for consumers. Conversely, the same exports will become relatively more expensive in the euro zone.
The net effect is not even, though — Britain's trade with the US is dwarfed by that with the euro zone. In 2014, the US was Britain's single biggest export market at 12.7 percent. However, that was way short of the euro zone's collective total of around 45 percent.
So the economic pain of the pound's appreciation against the euro is set to more than offset any of the gains made in the US.
On top of that, the pound's fall against the dollar is likely to make companies' production costs rise since the dollar is used to price most commodities — essential raw materials like oil and copper. The pound's weakness, for example, means fuel prices are higher than they otherwise would be.
The situation is "generally an unappetizing and unfortunate mix" for British companies, says Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight.
ELECTORAL VOLATILITY
Though the pound has been buffeted by developments outside its borders, its future performance could hinge on domestic matters.
The general election on May 7 is expected to be tight. Opinion polls show the Conservative Party, the main party in the current coalition government, is neck-and-neck with the main opposition Labour Party.
Because no party is expected to achieve a majority, deals with smaller parties will likely be needed to form a government.
One scenario that could prompt volatility is the prospect of a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union.
The Conservatives have said they will hold one in 2017 if they form a government after the election. The small UK Independence Party may demand an earlier one if they end up propping up the Conservatives.
With many potential permutations, the uncertainty over Britain's economic course could cause further volatility in the pound — and headaches for business.
"Political uncertainty is likely to continue to build in the coming weeks as the election campaign gets into over-drive," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com.
British pound’s swings cause uncertainty for business
British pound’s swings cause uncertainty for business
Saudi Arabia’s Ades secures $136.2m deals in Qatar, Egypt
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Ades Holding Co. continues to expand its regional footprint as it seals two contracts worth SR511 million ($136.2 million), highlighting its growing influence in the oil and gas sector.
Ades, which specializes in providing drilling and intervention services, signed a contract valued at up to SR350 million with Total Energies to operate an offshore drilling platform in Qatar.
The agreement includes a mandatory one-year period with an option to extend it for up to an additional 18 months, according to a bourse filing.
Operations are slated to begin in the second half of 2024. The company emphasized that there are no related parties involved in this contract.
This contract comes on the heels of April’s announcement, where Ades was awarded the responsibility to operate another offshore drilling platform by Total Energies in Qatar.
This previous contract enables Ades to maintain its market presence robustly, as it will now operate three drilling platforms in the region.
This expansion comes after the company’s strategic move to transfer its Emerald Driller platform to Indonesia.
Moreover, Ades announced in a separate release that it was awarded a 21-month contract to operate an elevated platform in the Gulf of Suez.
The company received a direct award letter from the Suez Oil Co, also known as SUCO, in Egypt, with operations expected to commence in the coming weeks.
In a statement on Tadawul, the company disclosed that the contract is valued at SR161 million.
This new engagement in Egypt is part of Ades’s broader strategy to reactivate its operations regionally. It follows recent contracts in Thailand and Qatar, bringing the total number of reactivated platforms to three out of the five that were recently suspended in Saudi Arabia.
The publicly traded company saw a slight decrease in its stock price after its announcements.
Saudi government assets to remain strong through 2030: S&P Global
RIYADH: The Saudi government’s assets are forecasted to remain strong amid steady economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing the Kingdom’s dependence on oil, stated a new report.
According to S&P Global, the increasing debt issuance to fund Vision 2030 projects may exert pressure on Saudi Arabia’s net asset position until the end of the decade. However, the Kingdom will mitigate this impact through its wise and prudent fiscal policies.
“S&P Global Ratings expects that growing debt issuance to finance Vision 2030 projects could pressure the sovereign’s fiscal metrics. In our base case, however, we expect the government’s net asset position will deteriorate but remain strong,” stated the credit-rating agency.
It added: “The ramp-up in fiscal deficits and debt could weaken the government’s balance sheet far sooner than returns on investment will accrue. Much will depend on the roles that foreign investment, the private sector, and capital markets will play in financing Vision 2030.”
According to the report, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, spearheading the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts, aims to invest $40 billion annually in the local economy to bolster Vision 2030 goals.
The US-based firm highlighted that the Saudi government will continue to support the Public Investment Fund in various ways, including funding essential infrastructure for mega and giga project sites.
Domestic banks to play key role
Furthermore, S&P Global added that the Saudi government and PIF will try to boost external funding and diversify the investor base to mitigate the impact on domestic banks’ liquidity.
“We expect domestic banks will still play a key role in funding the public and corporate sectors, given the large size of projects. Domestic banks will likely see a shift from mortgage lending toward corporate lending and Vision 2030 project funding,” noted the credit rating agency.
However, the report added that the Kingdom’s banking system alone cannot accommodate all the financing needs associated with Vision 2030.
Banks in Saudi Arabia will use alternative strategies, such as raising additional external funding, to meet the increasing credit demand.
“In 2023, Saudi banks injected almost $55 billion in the form of investments and financing in the public and corporate sectors, excluding financing to the retail sector. In 2024, we expect banks will grow their lending book by 8 percent to 9 percent,” said S&P Global.
It added: “Under the assumption that 70 percent of that lending is for corporates, banks can inject $40 billion to $44 billion in financing. A portion of that could be used in Vision 2030.”
The report projected an approximate 8 percent increase in deposits for 2024, with external debt issuance expected to reach around $10 billion to facilitate anticipated lending growth.
Earlier this month, another analysis by the agency underscored the robust condition of the Saudi banking sector, highlighting strong asset-quality indicators and overall capitalization.
S&P Global further noted its expectation for banks’ solid profitability and conservative dividend payouts to sustain their capitalization over the next one-to-two years.
The report also noted that Saudi banks have already accessed international capital markets, a trend the credit-rating agency expects to persist for the next three to five years.
Furthermore, the Saudi government and its related entities are anticipated to inject deposits into the banking system, thereby bolstering the credit growth of financial institutions in the Kingdom.
Public and private investment
S&P Global also predicted that certain Vision 2030 projects will extend beyond this decade, facilitating a more organic increase in economic activity and foreign investment.
While PIF and the government will persist in debt-financed investment for Vision 2030, other government-related entities, including portfolio companies of the wealth fund, private-sector participants, and foreign direct investment, will also play crucial roles in implementing economic diversification projects in the Kingdom.
The report underscored that FDI inflows have averaged around 2 percent of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product over the past three years, with the Kingdom aiming to increase this to 5.7 percent by 2030.
According to S&P Global, the opening of free economic zones and the regional headquarters program could expedite the growth of FDI inflows in the coming years.
“Future FDI inflows could offer upside on the back of growing investment opportunities and government efforts to improve regulatory and business conditions. These efforts include the opening of free economic zones and a 30-year tax break for multinational companies opening regional headquarters in the country,” added the agency.
It underscored the role of the Saudi capital market in catalyzing the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts.
The report highlighted that the Saudi exchange is collaborating closely with the Capital Markets Authority to streamline processes and attract both local and international issuers by enhancing market functionality and efficiency.
These initiatives by Tadawul will ultimately enhance the appeal of debt and equity transactions on capital markets and facilitate a more diversified funding base for Vision 2030 projects.
It also noted that the Saudi government possesses additional assets it could leverage to support Vision 2030 and prevent an expanding debt bubble. This includes an 82 percent stake in Saudi Aramco, which boasts a market capitalization exceeding $7 trillion.
“The government has thus far transferred a total 16 percent stake in Saudi Aramco to the PIF and its subsidiaries, which has substantially added to the PIF’s asset base, leading to dividend returns that it can deploy toward Vision 2030 projects. The government could choose to sell further stakes in Aramco through an IPO (initial public offering) to raise additional financing,” added the agency.
Pakistan’s benchmark share index rises as much as 1.5%
- Pakistan’s benchmark share index has surged 73.4% over the past year, up 12.9% year-to-date
- Market reacting to Saudi business delegation’s arrival, IMF statement on mission visit, says analyst
KARACHI: Pakistan’s benchmark share index rose 1.5% during intraday trade on Monday, to an intraday high of 72,986 points.
The index has surged 73.4% over the past year and is up 12.9% year-to-date.
A Saudi delegation arrived in Pakistan on Sunday for talks on trade and investment opportunities, particularly in the exploration and production sectors.
Adnan Sheikh, assistant vice president at Pak Kuwait Investment Company, said the market was up following news of the delegation’s arrival along with an IMF statement regarding a mission visit.
“The PSX is still very cheap with price to earnings ratio of under 5x compared to average of 8x,” Sheikh added.
Pakistan last month completed a short-term $3 billion program, which helped stave off sovereign default, but the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has stressed the need for a new longer term program.
An International Monetary Fund mission is expected to visit Pakistan this month to discuss a program, the lender said on Sunday ahead of Islamabad beginning its annual budget-making process for the next financial year.
The IMF did not specify the dates of the visit, nor the size or duration of the program.
Earlier, in an interview with Reuters, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the country hoped to agree the outlines of a new IMF loan in May.
Pakistan is expected to seek at least $6 billion and request additional financing from the Fund under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust.
Saudi Rasan to offer 30% shares for IPO on Tadawul
RIYADH: Saudi-based fintech Rasan Information Technology Co. is set to offer 22.74 million shares for an initial public offering on the Kingdom’s main market.
The company, along with its subsidiaries, will list the shares, which represent 30 percent of its issued share capital, on Tadawul through the sale of 17.4 million existing ordinary shares as well as 5.3 million new ordinary shares, according to a statement.
While the existing ordinary shares account for 23 percent of the company’s issued share capital, the new ordinary shares represent 7 percent.
This comes following the Capital Market Authority’s approval in March of the fintech firm’s application for registering its share capital and offering the total number of ordinary shares, with a nominal value of SR1 ($0.27) per share.
Moreover, the offering proceeds after deducting IPO-related expenses will be distributed to the selling shareholders equally based on their shareholding in the existing ordinary shares.
The remaining proceeds are set to be distributed to the company in order to expand its current operations and products, market and develop new products, as well as finance the general purposes of the firm and its subsidiaries.
The final price of the offer shares, which account for the existing and new ordinary shares combined, will be determined by the existing shareholding and the company, in consultation with the financial advisers, following the book-building process and prior to commencement of the subscription period for individual subscribers.
The financial advisers include Saudi Fransi Capital and Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Aramco raises June’s Arab light crude price to Asia
RIYADH: Saudi Aramco raised June’s official selling price for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia, according to an official statement.
Differentials for the flagship Arab Light grade were priced at Platts Dubai/DME Oman +$2.90 per barrel, up from +$2 a barrel in April.
This was the highest OSP in five months and largely in line with expectations, based on a firmer market structure and higher spot premiums last month for tradable Middle East grades such as Oman, Al Shaheen and Upper Zakum.
The higher OSPs also came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, maintained the first quarter round of voluntary cuts into the second quarter, while the global crunch on supplies of sour crude also underpinned Middle East grades.
Arab Medium was increased by $1 per barrel to +$2.35 per barrel, while Arab Heavy was hiked $1.10 a barrel to +$1.60 per barrel.
For Northwest Europe, the Arab Light OSP was set +$2.10 per barrel over ICE Brent futures, up from +$0.30/b while Medium was hiked from minus $0.40/b to +$1.10/b. Both grades were hiked to reflect the relative weakness in Brent compared to sour barrels.
Arab Light for April to the US Gulf was kept unchanged at +$4.75 per barrel over ASCI, while Medium was at +$5.45/b and Heavy at +$5.10/b, respectively, both slightly lower on the month.
