CHICAGO: There is a nagging question to consider before you jump into home-buying after one of the worst housing slumps in American history. Will you ever make money?
Based on how the market has performed in the past, there is no clear answer.
Not that there hasn't been good news about home prices lately. Prices have rebounded in most of the largest US cities over the last five months. The closely watched S&P Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.9 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Low interest rates provide an added bonus: With mortgage rates still at generational lows — 30-year loans still average well under 4 percent — it's a good time to lock in a bargain.
Residential housing is still a buyer's market, and it will be for some time. There was an inventory of 2.4 million unsold homes as of July, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is roughly a 6-month supply, based on current sales trends.
But such statistics don't provide a basis for determining whether buying a home will be a money-making proposition.
Housing prices have a history of following demographic trends. When veterans came back from World War Two, for example, they wanted homes that would accommodate their growing families.
When their children — the Baby Boomers — became home buyers, they fueled the market from the late 1970s through 2006.
Historically, the two greatest surges in home prices over the past century occurred between the end of World War Two and the mid-1950s and from 1999 to 2006. When there are large numbers of home buyers of child-bearing age, that seems to correlate highly with home sales.
The last run-up in prices was the largest, according to data collected by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, author of “Irrational Exuberance” and co-creator of the Case-Shiller housing indexes. A rush to real estate combined with Baby Boomer liquidity, distrust of the stock market and a bubble mentality to drove that mania.
Homeowners got smaller price bumps during the inflationary late 1970s up until 1980, and increases remained moderate until 2000, when home prices went on a bubble-fueled tear, according to Shiller's historical data.
Is history any guide to the future performance of housing?
In one respect, yes. If the Millennial generation, born after 1980, jumps into the market en masse as their parents did, then they will bid up prices. However, that assumes they can afford to buy homes. High unemployment and wage levels that have not been keeping pace with inflation for the past decade suggest that many would-be home buyers will remain renters.
The idea that home prices will always track the rate of inflation is not always true when it comes to specific neighborhoods or regions. It is a myth that home prices consistently rise.
I took a look at my own home in the suburbs of Chicago, which we had built in 1999. If it had kept pace with inflation, it would be worth $433,000 today. For this rough calculation, I used the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index inflation calculator.
After I ran the CPI calculator estimate, I discovered that my home is probably worth — based on current market value — at least $183,000 less than what 14 years of consumer price inflation would have dictated.
The housing meltdown and subsequent foreclosures have depressed housing prices by up to 50 percent in some areas.
Places like Stockton, California, which recently filed for bankruptcy, have been devastated. Atlanta is also still reeling.
Florida, Arizona, Nevada and parts of California are still feeling the effects of the housing crash.
What does this mean if you want to jump back into the housing market? You may get a bargain, but don't expect to see the appreciation the country has experienced in the past.
Housing is not like the stock market in that it could take many years, or even decades, to bounce back.
Keep in mind that this housing recession is unpredictable because it is unusual for its duration and intensity. Two national housing downturns in the 1990s (1990-91 and 1994-95) were accompanied by relatively small recessions and recoveries within a year or so.
Since the US is linked to a global economy teaming with uncertainty and a banking system that still hasn't resolved its pre-2008 issues, homes are worthwhile shelters, but they still may be dubious investments.
— John Wasik is a Reuters columnist and the opinions expressed are his own.
Housing market: It’s good time to lock in a bargain
Housing market: It’s good time to lock in a bargain
How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy
- Kingdom’s mineral wealth valued at $2.5tn, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating its push into mining as part of its economic transformation under Vision 2030, amid the growing importance of critical minerals and rare earths.
The Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at $2.5 trillion, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy alongside hydrocarbons.
The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market, according to economists and industry specialists.
Saudi Arabia is home to more than 45 identified minerals, including gold, copper and uranium, according to the Vision 2030 strategy.
Momentum has been supported by measures aimed at making mining easier to invest in and faster to scale, including updated regulations, digital licensing platforms, specialized mining services, and new transport and rail links to mining areas.
Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment, according to published government targets.
Signs of progress are starting to show in the mining sector in terms of exploration activity, licensing and new discoveries.
“The mining strategy shows it’s working very well, evidenced by the rapid rise in exploration and industrial licenses, and major new mineral discoveries,” Talat Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst, told Arab News.
Saudi Arabia is undertaking the world’s largest geological survey, covering about 700,000 sq. km of the Arabian Shield for $1.5 billion, he said.
The number of mining licenses issued exceeds 2,000, according to official data, and the Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at 90 percent higher than it was in 2016 when Vision 2030 was rolled out.
A key milestone highlighted in Vision 2030’s mining strategy was the introduction of a new mining investment law, which reduced the tax rate to 20 percent from 45 percent to spur investment and align the sector with global standards.
The Kingdom’s mining resources position it well to be a critical supplier of raw materials that are integral to energy transition as clean-energy technologies require large volumes of mined materials.
Copper is central to electrification and power networks, while battery supply chains rely on minerals such as nickel and lithium. Phosphate is a key industrial input with wider economic value.
Reliable supplies of metals and minerals used in power grids, batteries and electric vehicles can attract investment and support downstream industry in the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Sayid site, northeast of Jeddah, ranks among the world’s top four resources for rare earth elements, Khalid Al-Mudaifer, vice minister of industry and mineral resources for mining affairs, recently told Al Eqtisadiah.
It will help meet Saudi Arabia’s needs for minerals used in magnet manufacturing, EVs and wind energy, while also supporting global supply, including the US market, he said.
Mining can also catalyze investment in the Kingdom, widen supply-chain employment, and boost non-oil exports and private-sector growth, according to economists and policymakers.
Mines, processing plants and the infrastructure around them require large upfront capital spending, creating a pipeline of work across construction, equipment, utilities and logistics.
“When a mining sector scales, the economic footprint extends well beyond extraction,” said Turki Al-Nahari, vice president of global mining at Ecolab, told Arab News. “Growth typically occurs across engineering services, industrial water management, logistics, laboratory testing, equipment reliability, environmental services and digital performance systems.
“That shift creates demand for skilled engineers, technicians, data analysts and operational specialists,” he added.
In 2025, Saudi Arabia’s mining exploration budget increased 600 percent to $146 million from $21 million in 2022.
“This growth is driven by ongoing geological surveys, technological advancements and higher exploitation budgets, all of which signal stability and opportunity, attracting foreign investment,” Manraj Lamba, a mining economics analyst at S&P Global, said in a recent report.
Mining projects are easier to finance when the size and quality of the deposit are clear, costs are competitive, and rules and taxes are stable, Abdullah Al-Harbi, an economist familiar with the industry, told Arab News.
Investors want solid feasibility work, credible timelines and evidence a project can stay profitable through swings in commodity prices, Al-Harbi said.
Saudi Arabia’s pipeline includes 24 exploration-stage projects and 17 more advanced developments, according to S&P Global.
“Its proactive approach to geological surveys and resource assessment has uncovered significant potential across gold, copper, phosphate and bauxite,” Lamba said.
Large projects also tend to generate employment across a wider industrial supply chain, including contractors, maintenance, laboratories, transport and a range of operational services.
To boost employment and support hiring and training, Saudi Arabia has moved to standardize job roles and skills for the mining industry.
HIGHLIGHT
Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment.
The Kingdom rolled out a framework related to employment and skills in the mining industry in January at the Global Labor Market Conference.
The framework is “a tool which ensures clear definitions of occupations and their required skills,” the Kingdom’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef said. It will cover more than 500 job roles, detail the necessary skills, responsibilities and titles, he added.
Exports from the sector are already rising in tandem with investments to develop the industry and create jobs.
Saudi Arabia exported 5.7 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizer in 2024, up about 6 percent from 2023, according to a GASTAT report.
As the energy transition accelerates, Saudi Arabia’s advantage may be strongest beyond extraction alone.
“Saudi Arabia’s most realistic advantage in the accelerating energy transition lies in combining selective mining with strong processing and refining capabilities, supported by its emerging role as a logistics and supply-chain hub,” Hafiz said.
The Kingdom’s position between Africa, Europe, and Asia favors downstream processing and value-added industries, he added.
“Saudi Arabia is prioritizing minerals that are both financeable and strategically aligned with emerging industries such as electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, where markets are clear, and demand is scalable,” Hafiz said.
Aluminum, phosphate, and similar commodities remain a key focus to support local manufacturing, infrastructure development and downstream industries while strengthening export capacity, he said.
“Once construction concludes, the priority shifts to operational stability and performance optimization,” Al-Nahari said.
“Small efficiency gains, applied consistently across large-scale operations, compound materially over time,” influencing cost as well as uptime and competitiveness over the life of a mine, he added.
As the global race toward electrification and decarbonization accelerates, the Kingdom is effectively positioning itself beyond its oil legacy with its strategic commitment to the minerals sector, which will play a critical role in powering the future.
Its investment in exploration, infrastructure, and downstream processing anchor it as a pivotal supplier in the critical minerals and rare earths value chain in the era of energy transition.
