A number of factors have contributed to this change in thinking and perception. Energy intensity - the energy used to generate a dollar of GDP — is assuming center stage now. A number of factors have contributed to this endeavor — on a global scale. Most — yet not all — economies are now attempting to achieve better energy intensity.
Over the last few decades, there has been a growing realization — all around — that fossil fuel is a finite resource. One day the available resources will run out or be technically inaccessible at the right price.
Indeed economists aspire and plan for growth — but the growth model is no longer dependent on an abundant and cheap supply of fossil fuel. This is a precious commodity that needs to be used sensibly. There is a growing emphasis all around now to conserve. The focus is to achieve growth while reducing consumption. A daunting task indeed, yet, if the global consumption kept on increasing - the world could be faced with a crisis - to say the least.
The world is working, striving toward the ultimate goal. Yet the fast growing consumption in energy rich countries — Saudi Arabia included — for a number of reasons — is a cause of alarm.
And the concern was highlighted, acknowledged and conceded by none other than Al-Falih. A brave move in many senses!
The total Saudi domestic energy demand is expected to rise from about 3.4 million barrels per day of oil equivalent in 2009 to approximately 8.3 million barrels per day of oil equivalent in 2028 - a growth of almost 250 percent. And this is indeed not a model that could be championed.
Saudi Arabia has emerged as the second-biggest source of global oil demand growth after China. While that is still well behind China's projected 26 percent share of worldwide growth in oil consumption this year, the rising demand for crude and oil products in Saudi Arabia is outstripping increases in the major developing economies of Russia, Brazil and India.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) though concedes that some of this consumption is related to the upsurge in (Saudi Arabia's) resilient economy, which managed to escape global recession with little damage, particularly on the fiscal side. "Saudi Arabia has ambitious plans to expand its industrial base in order to create high-value jobs, and is particularly keen on becoming a petrochemical powerhouse," a IEA report underlined.
But the Paris-based IEA also pointed out that the demand for petrol in Saudi Arabia which, like most Middle East countries, rose by 22.4 percent in January compared with a year earlier, after expanding by 9 percent last year. The preliminary data "suggest that (overall) growth this year may well reach double-digit figures", the agency added.
Indeed with public transport lacking in many senses, people tend to depend on private vehicles, the gas guzzlers. And this is contributing to the skyrocketing demand pattern. Some other factors could also be contributing. Professor David Victor of UC San Diego's School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, in a study, "The Politics of Fossil Fuel Subsidies," highlights that reforming the subsidy policy worldwide could be an easy tool to improve energy security, achieve higher intensity and contribute to reducing the carbon emission levels. Besides increasing the demand for transport fuels and for certain oil products such as petrochemical feedstock, Saudi Arabia's industrial expansion has also driven up electricity consumption. The Kingdom has been increasingly burning crude oil to generate power, particularly in summer months. The IEA classifies "direct crude" burnt for power generation in an oil category it calls "other products". Last year, Saudi consumption of other products rose by 58.7 percent, the agency noted. The IEA predicted that almost three quarters of global oil demand growth this year would come from six large developing countries: China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, Iran and India.
And Al-Falih acknowledges a challenge does exist. He points out that that through improved efficiency, while maintaining the same economic growth, the increase in energy demand can be cut in half. This is a highly desirable goal because increasing domestic consumption of oil reduces the export availability. If no efficiency improvements are achieved, and the business is as usual, the oil availability for exports could decline to less than 7 million barrels per day by 2028, a fall of 3 million barrels per day while the global demand for our oil will continue to rise.
For example, between 1980 and 2000, China's energy intensity in terms of BTUs of energy used per dollar of GDP generated fell by 67 percent. Over the same period, the US energy intensity index dropped by more than 33 percent. In comparison, energy intensity for the Kingdom rather increased by some 138 percent over the 1980 level.
Amrita Sen, oil analyst at Barclays Capital agrees too. "Along with China and India, we do expect Saudi Arabia to be one of the largest sources of global oil demand. And given Saudi's importance in the oil market as the swing producer, in the longer term, this can impact their ability to control the market at the margin."
He too explains how the Saudi Arabian economy's energy intensity has increased 138 percent since 1980 and will continue to do so as the economy diversifies into other industries such as manufacturing.
However, business cannot go an as before. For the sake of posterity - things need to be worked out - and now.










