RIYADH: The Middle East is emerging as a major driver of the next global gas-turbine growth cycle, with the region’s gas-fired capacity projected to rise from 385 gigawatts in 2025 to 530 GW by 2035, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.
According to new data from S&P Global Energy CERA, the region’s expansion is expected to outpace that of many other markets, supported by fuel switching, population growth and industrial expansion. While the US is leading the current surge in gas-turbine orders, the Middle East could shape the industry’s longer-term trajectory as electricity demand rises and power systems seek reliable capacity alongside growing renewable generation.
That growth is underpinned by wider power-sector fundamentals. According to the International Energy Agency, gas-fired capacity across the Middle East and North Africa is on course to increase by more than 110 GW over the next decade, from about 350 GW in operation in 2024. Natural gas is expected to meet roughly half of the region’s electricity-demand growth through 2035.
In its report, S&P Global said the Middle East “may define the next growth cycle,” potentially becoming an even more important source of demand than North America as the current US-led expansion matures.
Saudi Arabia leads on speed to power
Saudi Arabia is at the center of the transition through its Liquids Displacement Program, which is making low-cost domestic gas the preferred source of flexible power capacity and replacing oil-fired generation.
Large-scale competitive procurement programs are accelerating project development. The report noted that Gulf countries are taking different approaches to meeting rising power demand, with S&P Global saying: “While Saudi Arabia's tenders have favored combined cycle units for speed to power, other Gulf countries such as Oman and Qatar are driving investments in open cycle turbines to maintain system reliability.”
The differing approaches reflect the Gulf’s varied power-system needs as countries expand generation capacity while integrating more renewable energy.
A global market in expansion
The Middle East’s build-out is part of a broader resurgence in gas-turbine demand. Global orders surpassed 100 GW in 2025, making it the second-strongest year on record after the merchant-power boom of the early 2000s, according to S&P Global Energy data and McCoy Power Reports.
Electricity demand is rising faster than many power systems can deploy firm capacity, with data centers, industrial electrification, population growth and renewable-energy expansion driving demand for fast, reliable generation that can complement variable wind and solar resources.
North America is dominating the current decade, with an 85 GW gas-fired project pipeline expected to reach commercial operation through 2030, according to S&P Global Energy CERA power outlooks.
New gas-fired capacity additions are expected to peak at 96 GW in 2030, driven by US demand. After that, Asia, the Middle East and Africa are expected to account for most new capacity additions, stabilizing at about 60 GW annually through the middle of the century.
Manufacturers scale up
The surge in demand is prompting turbine manufacturers to expand production capacity as data centers, electrification and industrial growth coincide with a major expansion in renewable energy.
The industry is responding through expanded manufacturing capacity, the adoption of highly efficient H/J-class turbines and greater interest in fast-to-deploy plant configurations.
S&P Global Energy CERA estimates that original equipment manufacturers’ expansion plans could increase annual turbine production capacity by roughly 30 percent by 2030, helping ease supply bottlenecks.
The timing of the expansion remains uncertain, however. Slow interconnection and permitting processes continue to delay projects in many markets, while the surge in demand has pushed new gas-plant costs well above previous levels.
The outlook for US electricity demand is also subject to uncertainty as the rapid expansion of data centers faces growing resistance at the local and state levels.
