ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is projected to be among the countries least able to protect people from rising temperatures because access to electricity needed for cooling is failing to keep pace with growing heat risks, according to a Climate Impact Lab report published this month.
The report projects that 89 percent of Pakistan’s population will live by 2050 in regions caught in what it calls the “Mortality-Cooling Trap,” where significant increases in heat-related deaths coincide with little or no growth in electricity consumption. It estimates climate change will contribute to 57 additional heat-related deaths per 100,000 people in those regions while electricity consumption declines slightly by 0.03 gigajoules per capita.
The findings underscore a broader inequality in climate adaptation: while wealthier countries are expected to increase electricity use to power cooling technologies as temperatures rise, many poorer countries are projected to lack the energy access needed to protect their populations from extreme heat. The report argues that expanding electricity access and strengthening energy systems should be treated as core climate adaptation measures alongside conventional responses such as heat action plans and early warning systems.
Pakistan stands out even among the countries identified in the report. It has the highest number of large cities, nine, projected to experience significant increases in heat-related mortality while recording below-median growth in electricity consumption, the report says.
“Comparing projections of electricity consumption with projections of temperature-related mortality reveals a striking pattern. Wealthy communities will increase their use of electricity for cooling, while poor communities will not and will see significantly more heat-related deaths. We refer to this as the Mortality-Cooling Trap: countries experiencing the largest increases in heat-related mortality are often projected to see only very small increases in electricity consumption,” the report said.
The report identifies 18 countries in the heart of the Mortality-Cooling Trap, all of them low- or lower middle-income economies. Most are in northern sub-Saharan Africa, while Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar make up the affected countries in South Asia.
More than 676 million people are projected to live in these regions, where approximately 377,000 additional lives could be lost each year from 2050 because of rising temperatures and insufficient access to electricity for cooling.
The report estimates climate-driven temperature changes could contribute to about 430,000 additional deaths globally each year by 2050 compared with historical conditions, with poor countries projected to suffer heat-related mortality rates 10 times higher than wealthier nations. It says access to cooling powered by electricity will determine how many of those deaths can ultimately be prevented.
The authors recommend reforms to electricity markets to make cooling more affordable, alongside investments in stronger power systems and measures less dependent on electricity, including heat early warning systems, heat action plans, urban greening, expanded health care access and targeted social protection programs for vulnerable communities.
