DUBAI: As Iran-backed Houthis enter the war, Tehran has threatened to disrupt shipping in the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, a strategic waterway linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, raising fears of further escalation across key global trade routes.
Yemen’s Houthis on Monday carried out their second attack on Israel since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, as regional tensions continue to escalate and concerns grow that maritime routes could become a new front in the conflict.
With the Strait of Hormuz already under pressure, any disruption to Bab Al-Mandeb, another major Middle East chokepoint, could have serious repercussions for the global economy, threatening oil flows, commercial shipping and supply chains between Asia and Europe.
What is Bab Al-Mandeb?
Bab Al-Mandeb is a 29-km-wide passage into the Red Sea, connecting it with the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean. It lies between Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other.
With the Red Sea acting as a key link between Europe and Asia, the strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Oil tankers and cargo ships from the Indian Ocean pass through it to reach the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, before entering the Mediterranean en route to Europe and other markets — and vice versa.
Economic estimates indicate that roughly 10 percent of global trade passes through Bab Al-Mandeb, and nearly 12 percent of global oil and natural gas shipments.
With the Strait of Hormuz partially blocked, more cargo has been moving through the Red Sea, making Bab Al-Mandeb even more important.
What happens if Bab Al-Mandeb is disrupted?
Bab Al-Mandeb plays a key role in global trade and in transporting oil and gas from Gulf states to Europe. The narrow passage at the southern end of the Red Sea is also a major route for container ships carrying Asian goods to European markets via the Suez Canal.
While disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz primarily affect oil flows to Asia, any disruption at Bab Al-Mandeb would threaten European energy supplies.
Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, but Bab Al-Mandeb is a wider trade artery. Any disruption would affect not only oil tankers but also container traffic, cargo shipments, insurance premiums, and the wider Asia–Europe supply chain.
A closure of Bab Al-Mandeb would disrupt a key route for Gulf oil exports within weeks, with industry experts warning oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel.
It would also force ships to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 15 days to journeys, increasing fuel consumption, increasing freight rates and delaying deliveries.
Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandeb are closely linked along the same maritime trade corridor. Tankers leaving the Arabian Gulf pass through the Strait of Hormuz before crossing Bab Al-Mandeb on their way to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If both chokepoints were disrupted, the impact on global shipping costs, energy prices and supply chains would be severe.
