How quantum computing could reshape Saudi energy sector

RIYADH: As solar and wind power play an increasingly important role in Saudi Arabia’s energy mix, weather conditions such as cloud cover and wind speeds can directly affect how much electricity enters the national grid.

The Kingdom plans to generate 50 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, meaning a larger share of power will depend on weather conditions.

Researchers say advanced technologies such as quantum computing could help scientists better understand and manage these challenges. The technology has the potential to model complex energy networks, accelerate the discovery of new clean-energy materials and optimize industrial systems that are too complicated for conventional computers to analyze.

“Quantum computing is likely to become a specialized accelerator for specific problems that are currently impossible to solve with classical supercomputers alone,” said Osman Bakr, associate vice president of research and professor of materials science and engineering at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology.

Speaking to Arab News, Bakr said the technology is expected to play an important role in research and strategic planning in the energy sector over the coming decade.

“Over the next decade, its role will be primarily in research and development and strategic planning,” he said. “For example, we will use it to model the complex chemistry of batteries and carbon capture at the molecular level.”

Such simulations could dramatically speed up innovation in clean energy technologies.

“It moves the trial-and-error process from the wet lab to the simulation, dramatically speeding up innovation cycles,” Bakr said.

Energy is widely seen as one of the sectors where quantum computing could deliver early practical benefits. Many of the industry’s biggest challenges involve both complex chemistry and large-scale optimization problems.

“Energy is a strong early target because many valuable problems are naturally scientific — chemistry, materials and reactions — and also heavy on optimization,” Bakr said.

One example is the search for new catalysts used in green hydrogen production.

“For example, in green hydrogen, finding a cheaper catalyst currently takes years of lab testing,” he said. “A quantum simulation can screen thousands of materials virtually, identifying the optimal candidate in a fraction of the time.”

Despite its potential, Bakr said quantum computing is expected to complement existing technologies rather than replace them.

“Quantum may give better accuracy for certain chemistry problems or find better solutions faster in some complex search spaces,” he said, adding that the technology will likely enhance specific stages of research rather than function as a standalone solution.

To illustrate the difference between classical and quantum computing, Bakr compared the process to searching for a book in a library.

“Think of a classical computer as a librarian searching for a book by checking every shelf one by one,” he said. “A quantum computer simultaneously scans the entire library and instantly locates the book.”

Saudi Arabia could also gain a strategic advantage by investing early in quantum technologies for energy applications, Bakr said.

“For energy, this means we can navigate the infinite complexity of a national power grid or a new material design to find the single most efficient configuration — something a standard computer might take centuries to calculate.”

He added that Saudi Arabia’s strength lies in its ability to combine large-scale energy operations, investment in advanced computing and a growing manufacturing base.

“If Saudi (Arabia) invests early, it can become the place where some of the critical quantum tools are tested on real industrial data and proven at scale.”

Developing quantum technologies could also support the Kingdom’s broader economic transformation under Vision 2030.

“A quantum program supports Vision 2030 by building technological sovereignty,” Bakr said. “The real value isn’t only the quantum machines, it’s the industrial know-how.”

That expertise could strengthen related sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and advanced materials, he added.

Quantum technologies could also contribute to Saudi Arabia’s long-term climate goals, including its commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2060.

“Net-zero is a ‘whole system’ challenge. Quantum helps in spots where normal tools struggle with extreme complexity or accuracy needs.”

Despite the promise, most quantum computing applications in the energy sector remain in early development.

“Most quantum use in energy is still pilot or pre-commercial,” Bakr said.

He noted that the earliest commercial opportunities are likely to appear in specialized optimization services and research partnerships, rather than in large-scale industrial deployment.

In the near term, the greatest benefits may come from building the capabilities needed to support the technology.

“Near-term returns come from building capability: people, algorithms, datasets, benchmarks and testbeds,” Bakr said.

For Saudi Arabia, preparing early could be critical as quantum technology continues to evolve.

“The urgency is in the preparation, not the deployment. Build strong datasets and benchmarking, and develop talent so the Kingdom is ready when the technology hits key performance thresholds.”

Looking ahead, Bakr said quantum computing could eventually become part of the digital infrastructure supporting modern energy systems.

“If progress continues, quantum could become part of national energy infrastructure, similar to how high-performance computing is used today,” he said.

In that future scenario, the technology could help scientists design new materials with far fewer experiments, plan more resilient low-carbon energy systems, and improve forecasting and decision-making in uncertain conditions.