LONDON: Russian officials have no desire to halt Russia’s almost 4-year-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine and think they can “outsmart” the United States during talks with Washington about how to end the war, a senior European intelligence official told The Associated Press.
Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, said Moscow is playing for time in the talks with Washington and “there is absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the US in a meaningful way.”
Rosin, who spoke at an online briefing with reporters ahead of the publication of Estonia’s annual security report on Tuesday, said the findings were based on intelligence his country gathered from “Russian internal discussions.” He did not elaborate on how the information was obtained.
Russian officials have publicly insisted they want a negotiated deal, but they show little willingness to compromise and remain adamant their demands must be met.
US-brokered talks between envoys from Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks have been described by officials from both sides as constructive and positive, but there has been no sign of any progress on key issues in the discussions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, “in his head, still thinks that he can actually militarily win (in Ukraine) at some point,” Rosin said.
A White House official responded to the Estonian intelligence chief’s comments and said the president’s negotiators had made “tremendous progress” on the talks to end the war in Ukraine. Although prisoner exchanges have happened sporadically since May, they pointed in particular to a recent agreement in Abu Dhabi among the US, Ukraine and Russia to release more than 300 prisoners.
That agreement was evidence that efforts to end the war are advancing, said the official, who was granted anonymity because they did not have permission to speak publicly.
In an indication that US President Donald Trump wants to accelerate the momentum of peace efforts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Washington has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach a settlement. Trump over the past year has set several deadlines that have come and gone without apparent consequences.
Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and adviser to Trump in his first term, said Trump and his officials are spinning a story that depicts the US president as a peacemaker and, for that reason, they are not interested in changing their assessment that Putin wants to end the war.
Both leaders, she told the AP, “need their version of events to play out” and are hanging on to their version of the truth — Putin as the victor in Ukraine and Trump as the dealmaker.
It’s unclear why US officials believe Putin wants peace
Although Trump has repeatedly suggested that Putin wants peace, he has sometimes appeared frustrated with the Russian leader’s lukewarm approach to talks.
From an intelligence perspective, Rosin said he doesn’t know why US officials believe the Russian leader wants to end the war.
Hill, who served as a national intelligence officer under previous US administrations, said it’s unclear what intelligence information Trump gets on Russia — or if he reads it.
He relies heavily on his lead negotiators, special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who Hill said may struggle to believe that the damage to the Russian economy caused by the war is a price Putin is willing to pay for Ukraine.
Referring to reports that Witkoff has attended meetings with Putin without a US State Department translator, she questioned if Trump’s envoys understood what was being said in meetings and suggested officials may be “selectively” looking for what they want to hear.
Being told what they want to hear
Putin is fixated on controlling all of Ukraine and the idea “is so deep in his head” that it takes priority over anything else, including economics, Rosin said, suggesting that the conflict will continue in some form for several years.
He said Putin’s position may change only if the situation in Russia, or on the front line, becomes “catastrophic,” threatening his power. For now, the Russian leader still believes he can take Ukraine and “outsmart everybody,” Rosin said.
One reason Putin thinks he can win militarily in Ukraine is because he is “definitely” getting some incorrect information from his officials, the Estonian intelligence chief said.
Not all Russian officials, however, believe they are winning the war in Ukraine, Rosin said.
“The lower you go in the food chain,” the more people understand “how bad it is actually on the ground,” he said, whereas higher up, officials are more optimistic because they are given more positive reports. Rosin cited examples of officials being told Russian forces had captured Ukrainian settlements when that was not true.
The reports that arrive at Putin’s desk may be “much more optimistic” than the situation on the ground because Putin only wants to see success, Rosin said.
Hill said both Trump and Putin are probably being told what they want to hear by people who want to please them.
Russia thinks it can outsmart the US during Ukraine peace talks, a European intelligence chief says
https://arab.news/6r4g3
Russia thinks it can outsmart the US during Ukraine peace talks, a European intelligence chief says
- Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, said Moscow is playing for time in the talks with Washington and “there is absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the US in a meaningful way”
US intel did not suggest a preemptive strike from Iran before US-Israeli attacks, AP sources say
- The official said a variety of factors created a golden opportunity to take out much of Iran’s leadership
WASHINGTON: Trump administration officials told congressional staff in private briefings Sunday that US intelligence did not suggest Iran was preparing to launch a preemptive strike against the US, three people familiar with the briefings said.
The administration officials instead acknowledged there was a more general threat in the region from Iran’s missiles and proxy forces, two of the people said. The third person, however, said the administration emphasized that Iran’s missiles and proxy forces posed an imminent threat to US personnel and allies in the region.
The officials did not provide any clarity about what would happen next in Iran after the joint US-Israeli operation, the two people said. All three people insisted on anonymity to discuss details that have not been made public.
The information conveyed to the congressional staff contrasts with the message from President Donald Trump. “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. A vicious group of very hard, terrible people,” he said in a video message after launching strikes on Iran.
Senior Trump administration officials, who like others were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, had told reporters Saturday that there were indicators that the Iranians could launch a preemptive attack.
The White House and Pentagon did not immediately reply to requests for comment on Sunday night. Details of the briefing were first reported by Politico.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will brief the full membership of Congress on the US military operation against Iran, the White House said Sunday. Rubio also was slated to brief Hill leadership Monday, the same day Hegseth and Caine are planning a press conference about the operation.
Three strikes, three locations, within a single minute
The military operation came after authorities from Israel and the US spent weeks tracking the movements of senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and shared information that allowed the strikes to be carried out in a surprise daylight attack, according to an Israeli military official and another person familiar with the operation.
The eventual barrage of US-Israeli attacks on Iran came so quickly that they were nearly simultaneous — with three strikes in three locations hitting within a single minute — killing Khamenei and some 40 senior figures, including the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and the country’s defense minister, the Israeli military official said Sunday.
The official said a variety of factors created a golden opportunity to take out much of Iran’s leadership, like weeks of training and monitoring the movements of senior figures as well as intelligence in real-time before the attack began that key targets were gathered together.
Striking by day also gave an additional element of surprise, said the official, who said so many major, rapid-fire strikes were critical to keep key officials from fleeing after the first strike. The official said Israel closely cooperated with its US counterparts and had used a similar tactic at the beginning of last June’s war — which resulted in the killing of several senior Iranian figures.
The official also noted Khamenei having posted defiant tweets taunting President Donald Trump in the days before the attack.
The details about the strikes came as the conflict entered its second day, with Trump saying in a video message Sunday that he expected it would continue until “all of our objectives are achieved.” He did not spell out what those objectives were.
The Republican president also said the US military and its partners hit hundreds of targets in Iran, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, Iranian air defense systems and nine warships, “all in a matter of literally minutes.”
CIA had long tracked top Iranian leaders
Before the attacks, the CIA had for months tracked the movements of senior Iranian leaders, including Khamenei.
The intelligence was shared with Israeli officials, and the timing of the strikes was adjusted in part because of that information about the Iranian leaders’ location, according to the person familiar with the planning.
The intelligence-sharing between US and Israel reflects the preparation that went into the strikes, which threw the future of the Islamic Republic into uncertainty and raised the risk of escalating regional conflict.
The US regularly shares intelligence with allies including Israel. Those partnerships, and the accuracy of the intelligence they yield, is often critical not only to the success of a military operation but also to the public’s support for it.
Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the senior Democrat on the committee, told The Associated Press that, historically, “our working relationship with the Mossad and Israel is really strong.” Mossad is the Israeli spy agency.
Warner said he has serious concerns about the justification for the strikes, Trump’s long-term plans for the conflict and the risks that US service members will face. The military announced Sunday that three American troops had been killed in the Iran operation.
“No tears will be shed over their leadership being eliminated, but always the question is: OK, what next?” Warner said.
Iran has signaled it’s open to talks with the US
A senior White House official said Iran’s “new potential leadership” has suggested it is open to talks with the United States. That official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal administration deliberations, said Trump has indicated he’s “eventually” willing to talk but that for now the military operation “continues unabated.”
The official did not say who the potential new Iranian leaders are or how they made their alleged willingness to talk known. Separately, Trump told The Atlantic that he planned to speak with Iran’s new leadership.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” he said Sunday, declining comment on the timing.
