US plan sees Ukraine ceding territory same size as Luxembourg: AFP analysis of ISW data

Rescuers use a crane to carry the bodies of people found under debris of an apartment building which was hit by a Russian missile strike on Wednesday, in Ternopil, Ukraine Nov. 21, 2025. (Reuters)
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Updated 21 November 2025
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US plan sees Ukraine ceding territory same size as Luxembourg: AFP analysis of ISW data

  • Kyiv would relinquish nearly 5,000 sq km currently under its control in the Donetsk Oblast
  • These concessions include the major cities of Kramatorsk and neighboring Sloviansk

PARIS: The US peace plan for Ukraine could see Russia gain an area almost the same size as Luxembourg without a fight, according to an AFP analysis of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The US initiative, seen by AFP, calls for the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from territories it still controls, leading to a net gain of approximately 2,300 square kilometers (888 square miles) for Moscow — almost the same area as Luxembourg (2,590 sq km), without firing a single shot.
Kyiv would relinquish nearly 5,000 sq km currently under its control in the Donetsk Oblast — which would be used to create a buffer zone — and a 45 sq km pocket in the Lugansk Oblast.
These concessions include the major cities of Kramatorsk and neighboring Sloviansk.

In exchange, Moscow would return nearly 2,000 sq km that it claims, or at least partially controls, in the Kharkiv Oblast; 450 sq km in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; 300 sq km in the Sumy Oblast; and 20 sq km in the Chernigiv Oblast.
The plan also envisages recognizing Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, Donetsk and Lugansk as “de facto” Russian.
It would also see vast areas currently under Russian control in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions ceded to Moscow.
Ultimately, the plan proposed by Washington would effectively cede 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory to recover less than 0.5 percent.
The calculations are based on the areas fully or partially controlled by Russia and those that it claims, as of November 20, according to data from the ISW, who work with the Critical Threats Project (CTP).
The Russian army has advanced 398 sq km into Ukrainian territory since the beginning of November, setting a faster pace than in September and October.
By November 20, the Russian army fully or partially controlled 19.3 percent of Ukrainian territory.
Around 7 percent, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas, was already under Russian control before the start of the February 2022 invasion.


Russian drone strike kills 12-year-old boy in Ukraine as peace talks kept under wraps

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Russian drone strike kills 12-year-old boy in Ukraine as peace talks kept under wraps

  • In Dnipropetrovsk region, a Russian drone attack Thursday night destroyed a house where the boy was killed and two women were injured
  • The Ukrainian air force said Russia fired 137 drones of various types during the night

KYIV: Russian drones struck a house in central Ukraine, killing a 12-year-old boy, officials said, while long-range Ukrainian strikes reportedly targeted a Russian port and an oil refinery as US peace efforts continued out of public view.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s meeting in Florida on Thursday with Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s lead negotiator, was “productive,” according to a White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The American and Ukrainian officials were due to brief their respective leaders on Friday and reconvene for further talks later in the day , the official added.
The talks came after discussions between President Vladimir Putin and the US envoys at the Kremlin on Tuesday.
Previous diplomatic attempts to break the deadlock have come to nothing and the nearly four-year war has continued unabated. Officials largely have kept a lid on how the latest talks are going, though Trump’s initial 28-point plan was leaked.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country’s delegation in Miami wanted to hear from the US side about the talks at the Kremlin.
Zelensky, as well as European leaders backing him, have repeatedly accused Putin of stalling in peace talks while the Russian army tries to press forward with its invasion.
Zelensky said in a video address late Thursday that officials wanted to know “what other pretexts Putin has come up with to drag out the war and to pressure Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, Kremlin foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov, who accompanied Putin on a visit to India on Friday, repeated the Russian leaders’ recent criticism of Europe’s stance on the peace talks. Kyiv’s European allies are concerned about possible Russian aggression beyond Ukraine and want a prospective peace deal to include strong security guarantees.
Kyiv’s allies in Europe are “constantly putting forward demands that are unacceptable to Moscow,” Ushakov told Russia’s state-owned Zvezda TV. “Putting it mildly, the Europeans don’t help Washington and Moscow reach a settlement on the Ukrainian issues.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday that he made progress during a visit to Beijing on getting Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s support for peace efforts.
“We exchanged deeply and truthfully on all points, and I saw a willingness from the (Chinese) president to contribute to stability and peace,” Macron said.
The French president said he stressed that Ukraine needs guarantees that Russia won’t attack it again if a settlement is reached and that Europe must have a voice in negotiations.
“The unity between Americans and Europeans on the Ukrainian issue is essential. And I say it, repeat it, emphasize it. We need to work together,” Macron said.
In Ukraine’s central Dnipropetrovsk region, a Russian drone attack Thursday night destroyed a house where the boy was killed and two women were injured, according to the head of the regional military administration, Vladyslav Haivanenko.
The Ukrainian air force said Russia fired 137 drones of various types during the night.
Ukrainian drones attacked a port and an oil refinery inside Russia overnight as part of Kyiv’s campaign to disrupt Russian logistics, Ukraine’s general staff said.
The drones struck Temriuk sea port in Russia’s Krasnodar region and the Syzran oil refinery in the Samara region, starting blazes, a statement said. Syzran is about 800 kilometers (500 miles) east of the border with Ukraine.
The Russian Defense Ministry said only that its air defenses intercepted 85 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions and the illegally annexed Crimea overnight.