SARAJEVO: The Bosnia’s Serb statelet’s snap presidential election on Sunday signals an end to the overt political leadership of Milorad Dodik – a populist who regularly threatened to break away from Bosnia.
Once seen as a moderate by Western diplomats, Dodik was forced from office over his tense relationship with the international envoy charged with maintaining a peace treaty that has held the country together since its 1990s war.
Although it may be the end of Dodik’s time in public office, his chosen replacement is a close ally, and many observers see the 66-year-old’s step back as a political maneuver rather than a retirement.
Here are the main steps that led to Sunday’s vote.
‘A tourist with no power’
Since the end of the 1992-1995 war, Bosnia has been divided into Serb and Bosniak-Croat entities, linked by central institutions.
Reforms aimed at strengthening the central state were often imposed by a high representative – an international appointment granted sweeping powers to maintain the Dayton Peace Accords that ended the conflict 30 years ago.
Bosniaks, or Bosnian Muslims, have consistently advocated for a stronger central state, while Bosnian Serbs, who mainly live in Republika Srpska (RS), largely opposed the transfer of power away from the entities.
When former German agriculture minister Christian Schmidt arrived to become high representative in 2021, Dodik immediately accused him of being “illegitimate.”
Dodik claimed Schmidt had not received the necessary UN Security Council approval due to vetoes by Russia and China.
But Schmidt remained undeterred, declaring an intent to use all “political tools” at his disposal to make Bosnia a more functional state, anchored to the European Union.
Dodik, with close ties to the Kremlin, painted Schmidt’s moves as a direct challenge to Republika Srpska and labelled him a “tourist with no power.”
‘Existential threat’
Facing pushback from Dodik, Schmidt, within months of his appointment, told the Security Council that Bosnia faced “the greatest existential threat of the post-war era.”
In April 2022, Schmidt suspended a law that would have allowed the Serb entity to seize state assets within its territory, which covers over half the country.
Over a year later, he moved to repeal laws passed by the RS parliament that allowed the entity to ignore his office’s decisions and those made by Bosnia’s constitutional court.
The high representative made it a punishable offense to ignore his decisions; offenders could be imprisoned for up to five years and banned from public office.
Open crisis
For ignoring these rulings, Dodik was indicted in August 2023. After a lengthy court process, which he said aimed at “eliminating him from the political arena,” he was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from office for six years in February.
The political crisis escalated as Dodik decried the decision, while his government responded with new laws that rejected the authority of Bosnia’s central judiciary and police.
Despite prosecutors demanding his arrest on potential sedition charges, no police force dared arrest him for fear of inflaming a wider conflict.
A court confirmed his conviction on appeal, but Dodik managed to convert his prison sentence to fines – his political ban remained.
Washington’s hand
The 66-year-old was initially defiant, announcing a series of referendums – including one on the potential secession of the entity from Bosnia.
“I have no intention of leaving,” he said, stating that he would block any vote for his replacement. Fears grew of an escalation.
But, at the end of September, he reversed course. The RS parliament agreed to early elections, repealed the controversial laws that had sparked the crisis, and Dodik stood aside for an interim president.
Ten days later, the United States lifted sanctions on Dodik and his associates, in place since 2017, over his separatist policies.
Historian and diplomat Slobodan Soja said it was clear that Dodik had “capitulated to have sanctions lifted” while remaining head of the party and maintaining an “absolute domination over the territory of the RS.”
Since the end of the war, Washington has remained focused on the preservation of the Dayton agreement and the maintenance of peace in the Balkans, Soja said.
“Dodik’s behavior endangered both, which is why he had to be stopped, but not removed.”
Provocative Bosnian Serb populist steps behind the curtain
https://arab.news/5r72x
Provocative Bosnian Serb populist steps behind the curtain
- Milorad Dodik forced from office over his tense relationship with the international envoy charged with maintaining a peace treaty that has held the country together since its 1990s war
US intel did not suggest a preemptive strike from Iran before US-Israeli attacks, AP sources say
- The official said a variety of factors created a golden opportunity to take out much of Iran’s leadership
WASHINGTON: Trump administration officials told congressional staff in private briefings Sunday that US intelligence did not suggest Iran was preparing to launch a preemptive strike against the US, three people familiar with the briefings said.
The administration officials instead acknowledged there was a more general threat in the region from Iran’s missiles and proxy forces, two of the people said. The third person, however, said the administration emphasized that Iran’s missiles and proxy forces posed an imminent threat to US personnel and allies in the region.
The officials did not provide any clarity about what would happen next in Iran after the joint US-Israeli operation, the two people said. All three people insisted on anonymity to discuss details that have not been made public.
The information conveyed to the congressional staff contrasts with the message from President Donald Trump. “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. A vicious group of very hard, terrible people,” he said in a video message after launching strikes on Iran.
Senior Trump administration officials, who like others were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, had told reporters Saturday that there were indicators that the Iranians could launch a preemptive attack.
The White House and Pentagon did not immediately reply to requests for comment on Sunday night. Details of the briefing were first reported by Politico.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will brief the full membership of Congress on the US military operation against Iran, the White House said Sunday. Rubio also was slated to brief Hill leadership Monday, the same day Hegseth and Caine are planning a press conference about the operation.
Three strikes, three locations, within a single minute
The military operation came after authorities from Israel and the US spent weeks tracking the movements of senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and shared information that allowed the strikes to be carried out in a surprise daylight attack, according to an Israeli military official and another person familiar with the operation.
The eventual barrage of US-Israeli attacks on Iran came so quickly that they were nearly simultaneous — with three strikes in three locations hitting within a single minute — killing Khamenei and some 40 senior figures, including the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and the country’s defense minister, the Israeli military official said Sunday.
The official said a variety of factors created a golden opportunity to take out much of Iran’s leadership, like weeks of training and monitoring the movements of senior figures as well as intelligence in real-time before the attack began that key targets were gathered together.
Striking by day also gave an additional element of surprise, said the official, who said so many major, rapid-fire strikes were critical to keep key officials from fleeing after the first strike. The official said Israel closely cooperated with its US counterparts and had used a similar tactic at the beginning of last June’s war — which resulted in the killing of several senior Iranian figures.
The official also noted Khamenei having posted defiant tweets taunting President Donald Trump in the days before the attack.
The details about the strikes came as the conflict entered its second day, with Trump saying in a video message Sunday that he expected it would continue until “all of our objectives are achieved.” He did not spell out what those objectives were.
The Republican president also said the US military and its partners hit hundreds of targets in Iran, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, Iranian air defense systems and nine warships, “all in a matter of literally minutes.”
CIA had long tracked top Iranian leaders
Before the attacks, the CIA had for months tracked the movements of senior Iranian leaders, including Khamenei.
The intelligence was shared with Israeli officials, and the timing of the strikes was adjusted in part because of that information about the Iranian leaders’ location, according to the person familiar with the planning.
The intelligence-sharing between US and Israel reflects the preparation that went into the strikes, which threw the future of the Islamic Republic into uncertainty and raised the risk of escalating regional conflict.
The US regularly shares intelligence with allies including Israel. Those partnerships, and the accuracy of the intelligence they yield, is often critical not only to the success of a military operation but also to the public’s support for it.
Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the senior Democrat on the committee, told The Associated Press that, historically, “our working relationship with the Mossad and Israel is really strong.” Mossad is the Israeli spy agency.
Warner said he has serious concerns about the justification for the strikes, Trump’s long-term plans for the conflict and the risks that US service members will face. The military announced Sunday that three American troops had been killed in the Iran operation.
“No tears will be shed over their leadership being eliminated, but always the question is: OK, what next?” Warner said.
Iran has signaled it’s open to talks with the US
A senior White House official said Iran’s “new potential leadership” has suggested it is open to talks with the United States. That official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal administration deliberations, said Trump has indicated he’s “eventually” willing to talk but that for now the military operation “continues unabated.”
The official did not say who the potential new Iranian leaders are or how they made their alleged willingness to talk known. Separately, Trump told The Atlantic that he planned to speak with Iran’s new leadership.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” he said Sunday, declining comment on the timing.
