LONDON: Most big emerging economies, including China, Brazil and India, can weather US tariffs without excessive pain, a study by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft showed, raising doubt about the clout of President Donald Trump’s trade tools.
The firm analyzed the resilience of 20 of the biggest emerging markets using measures from debt levels to export-revenue reliance to gauge their ability to handle trade volatility and rapidly shifting geopolitical alliances.
“Most manufacturing hubs globally are in a better position in their current baseline than you would think or give them credit for to weather this tariff storm specifically coming out of the US, even if it comes to full capacity,” said Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research who co-authored the report.
Mexico and Vietnam are among the most exposed to US trade dependence, the paper showed, but progressive economic policies, improving infrastructure and political stability meant they were among the more resilient economies.
Brazil and South Africa, it said, are effectively building links with other trade partners that could shield them in coming years.
“Almost every emerging market or global market understands that we need to do business with the US and China, but we can’t over-rely on either. So we need a third market,” Bhattacharya said, adding that trade between members of the BRICS group of developing nations was rising.
The Maplecroft paper did not examine BRICS member Russia.
China, though particularly exposed to geopolitical tensions with the United States, “is so entrenched it’s actually almost impossible to replicate it elsewhere,” she added, citing Beijing’s diversified export base and its human capital.
A manufacturing juggernaut, China is in the crosshairs of Trump’s efforts to reshape global trade policy. Data out earlier this week showed that in October, China exports suffered their worst downturn since February, shortly after Trump returned to the White House.
Bhattacharya also pointed to China’s years-long effort to expand use of the renminbi in trade settlements as “a pragmatic push for economic resilience and geopolitical risk diversification.”
Brazil, Argentina and Chile have signed local-currency settlement arrangements with China’s central bank, while Chinese state-owned enterprises and investors are financing lithium and copper projects in Chile, Bolivia and Peru.
Most emerging nations can realign trade to weather US tariffs, report finds
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Most emerging nations can realign trade to weather US tariffs, report finds
- The firm analyzed the resilience of 20 of the biggest emerging markets using measures from debt levels to export-revenue reliance to gauge their ability to handle trade volatility and rapidly shifting geopolitical alliances
Venezuela to debate historic amnesty bill for political prisoners
- Venezuela could pass a landmark bill on Thursday granting amnesty to political prisoners, marking an early milestone in the transition from the rule of toppled leader Nicolas Maduro
CARACAS:Venezuela could pass a landmark bill on Thursday granting amnesty to political prisoners, marking an early milestone in the transition from the rule of toppled leader Nicolas Maduro.
The legislation, which covers charges used to lock up dissidents under Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez, aims to turn the page on nearly three decades of state repression.
It was spearheaded by interim president Delcy Rodriguez, who replaced Maduro after he was captured by US forces in Caracas last month and flown to New York to face trial.
Rodriguez took Maduro’s place with the consent of US President Donald Trump, provided she does Washington’s bidding on access to Venezuelan oil and expanding democratic freedoms.
She has already started releasing political prisoners ahead of the pending amnesty. More than 400 people have been released so far, according to rights group Foro Penal, but many more are still behind bars.
Rodriguez also ordered the closure of the notorious Helicoide prison in Caracas, which has been denounced as a torture center by the opposition and activists.
Lawmakers voted last week in favor of the amnesty bill in the first of two debates.
The second debate on Thursday coincides with Youth Day in Venezuela, which is traditionally marked by protests.
Students from the Central University of Venezuela, one of the country’s largest schools and home to criticism of Chavismo, called for a rally on campus.
Venezuela’s ruling party also announced a march in the capital Caracas.
’We deserve peace’
Venezuela’s attorney general said Wednesday that the amnesty — which is meant to clear the rap sheets of hundreds of people jailed for challenging the Maduro regime — must apply to both opposition and government figures.
He urged the United States to release Maduro and his wife, both in detention in New York.
“We deserve peace, and everything should be debated through dialogue,” Attorney General Tarek William Saab told AFP in an interview.
Delcy Rodriguez’s brother Jorge Rodriguez, who presides over the National Assembly, said last week that the law’s approval would trigger the release of all political prisoners.
“Once this law is approved, they will all be released the very same day,” he told prisoners’ families outside the notorious Zona 7 detention center in Caracas.
’We are all afraid’
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Pablo Guanipa was one of the detainees granted early release.
But he was re-arrested less than 12 hours later and put under house arrest.
Authorities accused him of violating his parole after calling for elections during a visit to Helicoide prison, where he joined a demonstration with the families of political prisoners.
Guanipa is a close ally of Nobel Peace Prize laureate and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was in hiding for over a year before she fled the country to travel to Oslo to receive the award.
“We are all afraid, but we have to keep fighting so we can speak and live in peace,” Guanipa’s son told reporters outside his home in Maracaibo.
