Pakistan inflation to clock in at over 5% in Oct led by higher food prices — report

A man and workers are seen at a spice and grocery shop in a market in Karachi, Pakistan, on June 10, 2025. (REUTERS/File)
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Updated 28 October 2025
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Pakistan inflation to clock in at over 5% in Oct led by higher food prices — report

  • Key contributors to the food inflation are tomatoes (+27 percent), fresh vegetables (+25 percent), and onions (+10 percent)
  • A shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that can alter inflation trajectory, it says

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to reach 5.25–5.75% in October year on year, a market research firm said on Tuesday.

This is in comparison with 5.61% inflation in Sept. 2025 and 7.17% in Oct. 2024, according to Karachi-based Topline Securities. On a month-on-month basis, inflation for Oct. 2025 is projected at +1.1 percent.

“Food segment is expected to show increase of 1.21% MoM,” the brokerage and research firm said on Tuesday. “The resurgence in food inflation is primarily on the back of supply side effect on food products due to floods and closure of Afghan Border in the country.”

The frontier was closed after days of cross-border strikes and skirmishes between the two countries, which began on Oct. 11, over a surge in militancy in Pakistan’s western regions that border Afghanistan.

Key contributors to food inflation are tomatoes (+27 percent), fresh vegetables (+25 percent), and onions (+10 percent), though fresh fruit and chicken are down 10% and 25 percent, respectively, according to the report.

The transport segment is expected to rise by 1.12% MoM, mainly due to a 2.1% rise in motor fuels, with petrol rising 1.7% and high-speed diesel (HSD) rising 2.5 percent.

In Pakistan, inflation has fallen sharply from a record 37.97% in May 2023, when global commodity shocks, energy price hikes and currency depreciation sent prices soaring.

By late 2024 and early 2025, headline inflation had fallen into single digits on monthly measures, aided by tight monetary policy, base effects and external stabilization efforts.

“With inflation expectations of 5.25-5.75% for Oct. 2025, real rates will surge to 525-575bps, higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps,” the report read.

“A significant shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that could alter the inflation trajectory moving forward.”


Daesh claims suicide blast at Islamabad mosque that killed at least 31

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Daesh claims suicide blast at Islamabad mosque that killed at least 31

  • The attack comes as Pakistan’s forces battle intensifying insurgencies in southern and northern provinces that border Afghanistan
  • The last major attack in Islamabad took place in November when a suicide blast outside a court killed 12 people and wounded dozens

ISLAMABAD: A suicide blast claimed by the Daesh (Islamic State) group at a Shiite mosque in Islamabad killed at least 31 people on Friday, with 169 more wounded in the deadliest attack in Pakistan’s capital since the 2008 Marriott hotel bombing.

City officials said 31 people died in the explosion at the Imam Bargah Qasr-e-Khadijatul Kubra mosque in the Tarlai area on the city’s outskirts, with scores more being treated for injuries. The death toll was expected to rise further.

The blast occurred at Friday prayers, when mosques around the country are packed with worshippers.

“The attacker was stopped at the gate and detonated himself,” a security source told AFP.

Daesh said one of its militants had targeted the congregation, detonating an explosive vest and “inflicting a large number of deaths and injuries,” according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors such communications.

Muhammad Kazim, a 52-year-old worshipper, said an “extremely powerful” explosion ripped through the building as prayers were just starting.

“During the first bow of the Namaz (prayer ritual), we heard gunfire,” he told AFP.

“And while we were still in the bowing position, an explosion occurred,” he said.

Another worshipper, Imran Mahmood, told AFP there was a gunfight between the bomber, a possible accomplice and volunteer security personnel at the mosque.

“The suicide attacker was trying to move forward, but one of our injured volunteers fired at him from behind, hitting him in the thigh,” he told AFP.

He then “detonated the explosives,” Mahmood, in his fifties, added.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed that those behind the blast would be found and brought to justice.

The attack was the deadliest in the Pakistani capital since September 2008, when 60 people were killed in a suicide truck bomb blast that destroyed part of the five-star Marriott hotel.

BODIES, BLOODIED CLOTHING, DEBRIS

AFP journalists at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences hospital saw several people, including children, being carried in on stretchers or by their arms and legs.

Medics and bystanders helped unload victims with blood-soaked clothes from the back of ambulances and vehicles. At least one casualty arrived in the boot of a car.

Friends and relatives of the wounded wept and screamed as victims — dead or alive — arrived at the hospital’s heavily guarded emergency ward.

Another team of AFP journalists saw armed security forces outside the mosque, where pools of blood were visible on the ground.

Yellow crime-scene tape surrounded an investigation area, with shoes, clothing and broken glass scattered around the site.

Videos shared on social media, which AFP was not able to verify immediately, showed several bodies lying near the mosque’s front gate, with people and debris also strewn across the red-carpeted prayer hall.

Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar branded the attack “a heinous crime against humanity and a blatant violation of Islamic principles.”

“Pakistan stands united against terrorism in all its forms,” he said in a post on X.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “attacks against civilians and places of worship are unacceptable,” according to his spokesman.

GROWING INSURGENCIES

The attack comes as Pakistan’s security forces battle intensifying insurgencies in southern and northern provinces that border Afghanistan.

Pakistan is a Sunni-majority nation, but Shiites make up between 10 and 15 percent of the population and have been targeted in attacks throughout the region in the past.

Islamabad has said separatist armed groups in southern Balochistan, and the Pakistani Taliban and other militants in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province near Islamabad, have used Afghan territory as a safe haven from which to launch attacks.

Afghanistan’s Taliban government has repeatedly denied Pakistan’s accusations.

Bilateral relations have plummeted, with forces from both sides regularly clashing along the border.

The last major attack in Islamabad took place in November when a suicide blast outside a court killed 12 people and wounded dozens, the first such incident to hit the capital in nearly three years.

In Balochistan, attacks claimed by separatist insurgents last week killed 36 civilians and 22 security personnel, prompting a wave of counter-operations in which authorities said security forces killed almost 200 militants.