Pakistan inflation to clock in at over 5% in Oct led by higher food prices — report

A man and workers are seen at a spice and grocery shop in a market in Karachi, Pakistan, on June 10, 2025. (REUTERS/File)
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Updated 28 October 2025
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Pakistan inflation to clock in at over 5% in Oct led by higher food prices — report

  • Key contributors to the food inflation are tomatoes (+27 percent), fresh vegetables (+25 percent), and onions (+10 percent)
  • A shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that can alter inflation trajectory, it says

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to reach 5.25–5.75% in October year on year, a market research firm said on Tuesday.

This is in comparison with 5.61% inflation in Sept. 2025 and 7.17% in Oct. 2024, according to Karachi-based Topline Securities. On a month-on-month basis, inflation for Oct. 2025 is projected at +1.1 percent.

“Food segment is expected to show increase of 1.21% MoM,” the brokerage and research firm said on Tuesday. “The resurgence in food inflation is primarily on the back of supply side effect on food products due to floods and closure of Afghan Border in the country.”

The frontier was closed after days of cross-border strikes and skirmishes between the two countries, which began on Oct. 11, over a surge in militancy in Pakistan’s western regions that border Afghanistan.

Key contributors to food inflation are tomatoes (+27 percent), fresh vegetables (+25 percent), and onions (+10 percent), though fresh fruit and chicken are down 10% and 25 percent, respectively, according to the report.

The transport segment is expected to rise by 1.12% MoM, mainly due to a 2.1% rise in motor fuels, with petrol rising 1.7% and high-speed diesel (HSD) rising 2.5 percent.

In Pakistan, inflation has fallen sharply from a record 37.97% in May 2023, when global commodity shocks, energy price hikes and currency depreciation sent prices soaring.

By late 2024 and early 2025, headline inflation had fallen into single digits on monthly measures, aided by tight monetary policy, base effects and external stabilization efforts.

“With inflation expectations of 5.25-5.75% for Oct. 2025, real rates will surge to 525-575bps, higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps,” the report read.

“A significant shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that could alter the inflation trajectory moving forward.”


Pakistan moves to digitize payments for 10 million women under flagship poverty initiative

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Pakistan moves to digitize payments for 10 million women under flagship poverty initiative

  • BISP Official says accounts will be linked to phones to boost financial inclusion and curb payment deductions
  • Over 1.9 million SIMs issued as the nationwide rollout continues across provinces ahead of the March deadline

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s flagship poverty alleviation initiative, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), plans to equip 10 million women with digital bank accounts linked to their phone numbers within four months in one of the largest such exercises in the world, one of its top officials said on Wednesday.

Launched in 2008, the initiative is named after the late former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and has a budget of Rs716 billion ($2.5 billion) during the current fiscal year. Through its Benazir Kafaalat — or financial assistance — program, BISP provides quarterly stipends of Rs13,500 ($48) to around 10 million women.

In an exclusive interview with Arab News, BISP Secretary Amir Ali Ahmed said the opening of digital bank accounts for the beneficiaries was part of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s initiative related to a cashless economy and digital transformation of the country.

“I’m glad to share that 10 million bank accounts, wallet accounts were created,” he said. “This is a follow-up of the same exercise whereby now 10 million SIMs are being distributed.

“It is significant to share that the entire beneficiary network that we have is female-centric,” he continued. “So these are 10 million female accounts that have been created.”

Ahmed said the process of issuing mobile phone SIM cards to BISP beneficiaries had started on November 17 and would be completed by March next year.

“Let me share that this is one of the largest such exercises to be conducted in the world which is female-centric, linked with financial inclusion and financial empowerment.”

The BISP official added that out of the more than 10 million beneficiaries, only five to 10 percent had bank accounts, but nearly 90 to 95 percent were excluded from the system.

He said they were being linked to the banking system with cellphone SIMs that are being distributed with the help of the IT ministry, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, National Database and Registration Authority and telecom companies across the country.

“We feel that this initiative of the government of Pakistan will not only result in financial empowerment of our beneficiaries, it will also result in financial inclusion of a segment which was not part of the banking sector in Pakistan,” he said, adding that the move will also lead to transparency.

In the past, there have been complaints of women not getting their full payment from bank officials in the absence of their own accounts, but Ahmed said this was going to change.

“They will be free from any exploitation at the agent networks, the queues that one would witness, the complaints of corruption or deductions that would emerge,” he continued.

According to official data, more than 1.9 million SIMs have so far been issued for BISP beneficiaries across the country.

The province of Punjab leads the rollout with 810,597 SIMs, followed by Sindh with 523,629 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 371,427 SIMs.

In other regions, Azad Jammu and Kashmir has received 59,617, Balochistan 82,826, Gilgit-Baltistan 45,184, and Islamabad 4,508 SIMs.