ISLAMABAD: Foreign affairs and security analysts on Sunday said the durability of a ceasefire reached between Pakistan and Afghanistan depends on the Taliban’s ability to rein in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), warning that any failure could force Islamabad to act against the militant group and further harm bilateral ties.
Pakistan and Afghanistan reached a ceasefire agreement in Doha on Saturday night after days of fierce clashes ad airstrikes between the two sides, which killed dozens of people on both sides and pushed already frayed relations between the neighbors to a new low.
Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harboring militant groups such as the TTP and the separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which carry out attacks against its security forces and civilians. Kabul denies the allegations, but the issue has remained a major sticking point between the two countries.
Border clashes erupted between the neighbors on Oct. 11 after Pakistan conducted airstrikes on Kabul following the killing of a dozen Pakistani soldiers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that borders Afghanistan. The skirmishes and strikes continued intermittently before the two sides reached a ceasefire in Doha.
“It really depends on the Taliban as the ball is now in their court after they gave an understanding and undertaking in the presence of Turkish and Qatari officials,” Brig. (retired) Masud Ahmad Khan, a security analyst, told Arab News.
“It is the Taliban’s responsibility, but I have doubts since they do not have full control and there is a strong possibility that the TTP may reject their demands or proposals.”
Relations between Islamabad and Kabul have sharply deteriorated over a surge in militancy in Pakistan’s western regions. The two countries share a 2,611-kilometer (1,622-mile) long, porous known as the Durand Line, which Afghanistan has never recognized.
The TTP, which has had a close relationship with the Afghan Taliban, has been behind some of the deadliest attacks in Pakistan since late 2000s. The group has stepped up its attacks against Pakistani security forces and law enforcement agencies since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan.
Khan believed that Pakistan will not further tolerate cross-border attacks originating from Afghanistan, which have completely suspended trade between the two countries.
“The rules of engagement are clear,” he said. “Pakistan will strike there, if the attacks continued.”
The two sides agreed that the series of “terrorist activities from Afghanistan on Pakistani soil” will cease immediately, according to Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif who was part of the peace talks in Doha. Both countries agreed to respect each other’s territory.
Former Pakistani foreign secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry called the ceasefire a welcome development but expressed doubts about its sustainability, citing the Afghan Taliban’s “past record of not honoring such commitments.”
“Their past record is such that they have often violated the agreements, but I hope that this time they will honor this agreement because peace will serve both countries,” he said, adding that India has used Afghanistan’s soil for creating trouble in Pakistan and there is “documentary evidence” of it.
Islamabad has long accused Kabul of allowing the use of its soil and India of backing militant groups for attacks inside Pakistan. Kabul and New Delhi have consistently denied these allegations.
Asif Durrani, another former Pakistani diplomat, said Pakistan “cannot lower its guard” and has to respond if attacks continued.
“Afghanistan is a sovereign state and can have relations with any country, but Pakistan would be justified in expecting Afghanistan not to allow its soil to be used by India against Pakistan,” he told Arab News, adding that Islamabad has faced a “two-front situation” for the past two decades and has the capacity to tackle it if forced upon.
Dr. Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute think tank that focuses on South Asia affairs, said the key issue is whether the Afghan Taliban can control the TTP.
“Their [Afghan Taliban] failure to do so will seriously question the regime’s legitimacy, control and sovereignty in its own territory,” he said.
Cheema noted that Afghanistan is a landlocked country and depends upon Pakistan for the import and export of goods.
“It ultimately depends on whether the Afghan government chooses cooperation with Pakistan or allows non-state actors to hold its people and government hostage,” he added.
