BADIN, Sindh: Gul Muhammad Mandhro has watched three-quarters of his farmland in coastal Badin, southern Pakistan, disappear to the Arabian Sea over the past two decades, forcing a shift from sugarcane to salt-tolerant staples such as rice and wheat.

Once known as Pakistan’s “sugar state” for its cane fields and cluster of mills, Badin district is now at the forefront of a climate-driven crisis. Sea intrusion and shrinking freshwater flows from the Indus River have left soils too saline for sugarcane, accelerating a decline that farmers say is reshaping rural livelihoods and output along the coast.

“This area was very fertile, but it has been badly affected because of the sea and cyclones,” the 71-year-old farmer, who once worked as a schoolteacher, told Arab News.

“I owned nearly 200 acres of agricultural land which has now shrunk to 50 acres,” he added, saying he now plants more climate-resilient rice and wheat on what remains of his land.

According to the Sindh Chamber of Agriculture (SCA), Badin and neighboring Thatta district have lost nearly two million hectares (about 5 million acres) of farmland to sea intrusion over the past three decades. 

Sindh is Pakistan’s second-largest province, bordering the Arabian Sea and home to the lower Indus delta.

“Due to water shortage, the sea level is rising, its water is becoming more saline,” Wafa Lateef Jokhio, SCA general secretary, said. 

He argued that Sindh was not receiving its due share of Indus waters from upstream provinces.

He added that roughly 10 million acre-feet (12.3 billion cubic meters) of freshwater should reach the Arabian Sea each year to hold back seawater encroachment: “This is not happening.”

Agronomists say the changes are also altering the chemical balance of soil.

“The soil’s pH has been affected. The ideal pH for cultivation ranges from 5.5 to 7.6 and all the crops are grown within this range, including sugarcane,” said Ahmed Khan Soomro, an agricultural economics expert.

He said pH levels have climbed to as high as 8.4 in parts of Sindh, while the loss of indigenous seed varieties such as BL4 and Thatta 10 has compounded pressure on yields.

“The sweet water is not falling into the sea due to siltation in our rivers, that’s why the ecosystem is disturbed,” added Soomro, who manages Badin district for the Sindh Rural Support Organization.

‘SUGAR STATE’

The strain is also visible in Badin’s sugar industry, once a major contributor to Sindh’s role in producing about 30 percent of Pakistan’s national sugarcane output, according to government statistics.

“Badin was called sugar state because it used to have six sugar mills operating [until 2008],” said Jokhio. “Mirza Sugar Mill and Pangrio Sugar Mills have shut down, while Ansari Sugar Mills shifted out of the district entirely because of raw material shortages.”

Farmers say economics now favor rice.

“Earlier, we used to grow sugarcane, but it wasn’t giving us a good yield,” Mandhro said. “We started sowing rice which is resilient to salinity as well as floods.”

Large landowners have also cut back.

“We are not getting a good average [yield] which has decreased to 400 maund per acre,” said Hafeezullah Bhurgri, who plants cane on only 10 percent of his 600 acres, referring to a locally used unit of weight equal to 40 kilograms. 
“Previously the production was as high as 2,000 maunds per acre.”

That decline represents a drop from about 80 metric tons per acre to 16 metric tons.

Commodity experts say the crisis, while devastating for cane growers, has opened opportunities for rice cultivators.

“We are seeing a lot of potential for exports of rice in the upcoming period,” said Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer at Arif Habib Commodities. “On the flipside, however, the sugarcane production has been impacted.”

For Mandhro, the pivot is pragmatic: rice keeps his fields productive as the sea inches inland.