ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Meteorological Department (Met) told lawmakers on Wednesday it had warned authorities as early as May that the monsoon season would be “excessive” and trigger floods, raising fresh questions over why disaster management agencies failed to act as deluges have killed more than 1,000 people nationwide since late June.

According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), heavy monsoon rains and water released from Indian dams have killed 1,002 people and injured 1,063 across Pakistan since June 26. 

Floods in Punjab province in late August left 112 people dead, affected over 4.5 million and forced 2.6 million to evacuate, prompting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to declare an economic and agricultural emergency and call for improvements to the country’s flood early warning system.

Experts say that even in countries with advanced disaster management systems, early warnings are only as effective as the ability of authorities and communities to act on them.

Global research shows robust warning systems can cut flood-related deaths by as much as two-thirds, but require clear communication channels, evacuation planning, and public trust to work. In Pakistan’s case, analysts argue that warnings from the Met Department can save lives only if they are translated swiftly into local alerts, community preparedness and protective measures such as strengthening embankments or relocating vulnerable populations.

“In a meeting held on May 29 this year, we warned representatives of all the relevant departments of Pakistan like the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the provincial department authority, irrigation and agriculture departments that monsoon will be excessive this year and will cause floods,” Sahibzada Khan, director-general of the Met Department, told the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Water Resources.

His statement shocked committee members, who said NDMA had not conveyed flood warnings to parliamentary forums until after devastation struck.

Shazia Marri, a legislator and committee member, said NDMA officials had dismissed the risk in earlier briefings:

“I have been told by my colleagues in two parliamentary committees that NDMA officials briefed them before floods. However, these officials told these committees that there was no threat of flood this year.”

Marri added parliamentarians were “caught off guard” when flooding hit their constituencies.

NDMA representatives did not attend Wednesday’s meeting.

An NDMA official, speaking to Arab News on condition of anonymity, said the authority had warned of heavy rains and floods in a report issued during the first week of June.

The Met Department said it had assessed the risks as early as April during a meeting of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), a regional body of 10 monsoon-affected countries.

“Our regional consensus statement was that there will be heavy rains in the catchment areas of Pakistani rivers, and this will result in floods in Pakistan,” Khan told the committee.

A SASCOF statement on April 30 confirmed “above normal rainfall is most likely during the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June–September) over most parts of South Asia.”

Ahmad Atteeq Anwer, chairman of the committee, said the parliamentary body would investigate why the Met Department’s warnings never translated into action on the ground.

Pakistan’s Federal Flood Commission Chairman Athar Hameed added that the country’s floodplain mapping and forecasting model, developed in 2017, needed urgent upgrades to account for new infrastructure. Updated floodplain maps, he said, were critical for planning, legislation and imposing restrictions on construction in high-risk zones.

Pakistan, which contributes only 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, is among the countries most severely affected by climate change. Catastrophic floods in 2022 killed 1,700 people, affected 33 million and caused over $30 billion in damage.